USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

One Knoxville SC1Portland Hearts Of Pine1

HT 0–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:27 · Europe/Bucharest

One Knoxville are strong favorites at home against a travel-weary Portland side, but the odds (1.65) imply a higher win probability than our model suggests, offering no value.

The most likely outcome is a Knoxville win or draw, but the double chance at 1.20 is also overpriced. Avoid betting on the match winner or goals markets; instead, monitor for live betting opportunities if Portland's fatigue leads to early defensive lapses.

Context

Portland hosted Forward Madison on August 16.
- They play away at Richmond on August 22.
- No official rotation statement has been made, but the workload is high.
Knoxville won 3-1 at home in October 2025.
- Knoxville won 1-0 at home in August 2025.
- Portland have never beaten Knoxville in four meetings.
Home record: 6W-1D-3L.
- Goals for: 16, goals against: 11.
- Recent home results include a 2-1 win and a 2-3 loss.
Away record: 2W-3D-5L.
- Goals conceded away: 22 in 10 matches.
- Trailed at half-time in 7 of 10 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

One Knoxville SC

1.65fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Knoxville's strong home record (6W-1D-3L) and Portland's poor away record (2W-3D-5L) support a home win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model suggests.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

One Knoxville SC or Draw

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

Portland's away win rate is only 20% and they have never beaten Knoxville in 4 meetings, making a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are very short.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Portland's away matches average 3.7 total goals and Knoxville's home matches average 2.7, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Portland's tendency to concede early is notable, but the odds heavily favor Over 0.5, leaving no value.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Combined second-half average is 2.0 goals, but the odds are slightly below our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's strong home form and historical home dominance over Portland, combined with Portland's poor away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- One Knoxville home record: 6W-1D-3L, 16 goals for, 11 against in 10 matches
- Portland away record: 2W-3D-5L, 15 goals for, 22 against in 10 matches
- H2H: Knoxville won both prior home meetings (3-1, 1-0); Portland winless in 4 meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's poor away form and winless H2H record make it very unlikely they win, so backing Knoxville or draw is a high-confidence play.
- Knoxville home unbeaten rate: 70% (7 of 10)
- Portland away win rate: 20% (2 of 10)
- H2H: Portland have never beaten Knoxville in 4 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOne Knoxville SC or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's poor first-half away record gives Knoxville a slight edge to lead at the break, though the probability remains modest.
- Knoxville led at half-time in 20% of matches overall, but 30% at home
- Portland trailed at half-time in 64% of matches overall, 70% away
- H2H: Knoxville led at half-time in both home wins
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's home dominance and Portland's away struggles support a home win, but the HT/FT double is riskier due to the lower first-half lead probability.
- Knoxville home win rate: 60%
- Portland away loss rate: 50%
- H2H: Knoxville won both home meetings, leading at half-time in both
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostOne Knoxville SC / One Knoxville SCEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's away games are high-scoring, and Knoxville's home games also trend over 2.5, so the total goals line is likely to be exceeded.
- Knoxville home matches average 2.7 total goals (16+11 in 10)
- Portland away matches average 3.7 total goals (15+22 in 10)
- Portland's last 5 away matches: 3, 4, 3, 6, 3 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and Portland's leaky away defense increases the chance both find the net.
- Knoxville scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- Portland scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- Portland conceded in 9 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's tendency to concede early, especially away, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Knoxville first-half goals: 0.6 per match overall, but 0.8 at home (8 in 10)
- Portland first-half goals conceded: 1.1 per match overall, 1.4 away (14 in 10)
- Portland trailed at half-time in 64% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to produce more goals after the break, and Portland's away defense often collapses late.
- Knoxville second-half goals at home: 8 in 10 matches
- Portland second-half goals conceded away: 12 in 10 matches
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a speculative pick based on typical USL League One corner counts, so confidence is low.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Knoxville average corners: 0 (data missing)
- Portland average corners: 0 (data missing)
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is missing, so this is a low-confidence estimate based on league averages.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Knoxville average cards: 0 (data missing)
- Portland average cards: 0 (data missing)
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 52% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

One Knoxville SC Over 2.5 goals has matched in 4 of 7 recent projections

One Knoxville SC has fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 57.1%, with an expected 4 fulfilled predictions, so outcomes aligned with the model's confidence. At home, 3 of 5 projections were fulfilled, while away only 1 of 2 matched.

Recent evidence for One Knoxville SC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One