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Predictions graded

Bodo/Glimt3Sandefjord2

HT 1–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–367%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 28–10On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 10–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are overwhelming favourites at home to Sandefjord, but the outright odds offer no value.

The best betting edges are on Both Teams to Score – No (2.00, +10pt edge) and Bodø/Glimt clean sheet (2.00, +5pt edge), driven by the hosts’ strong home defence and Sandefjord’s away scoring struggles. Avoid the goals markets, where the over 2.5 line is heavily overpriced.

Context

Bodo/Glimt lead Eliteserien with 47 points from 19 matches, 27 points ahead of Sandefjord.
Bodo/Glimt have won five consecutive league games, including a 4-2 home win over Rosenborg on 30 August and a 2-1 away win at Fredrikstad on 4 September. Sandefjord have drawn their last two league matches and are only one point above the relegation line, so the gap in form and table position is large.
- Bodo/Glimt have 47 points from 19 matches, 27 more than Sandefjord.
- Bodo/Glimt's last five league results: W, W, W, W, W.
- Sandefjord are 12th with 20 points, one point above the relegation line.
The teams have met five times since May 2024.
Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 at Sandefjord on 26 July 2026 and 2-1 at Sandefjord on 31 August 2025. Sandefjord's only win in this period was a 2-1 home victory on 13 July 2024. Bodo/Glimt have scored at least two goals in four of those five matches.
- 26 July 2026: Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt
- 31 August 2025: Sandefjord 1-2 Bodo/Glimt
- 12 July 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Sandefjord
- 13 July 2024: Sandefjord 2-1 Bodo/Glimt
Bodø/Glimt goalkeeper Nikita Haikin left at half-time in Munich with apparent thigh pain and has no availability update since.
His status remains unresolved three days before kickoff. If he cannot play, Bodø/Glimt must change their goalkeeper selection and defensive preparation for this match.
- Bundesliga's live report says Haikin remained in the dressing room after the interval because of injury.
- The report says Haikin had visible thigh pain after an intervention late in the first half.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 17:03 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga live report: Bayern Munich v Bodø/Glimtwww.bundesliga.com · 10 Sep 2026FC Bayern match reportfcbayern.com · 11 Sep 2026
Bodo/Glimt have played nine home matches in Eliteserien this season.
Their only home defeat was against an unspecified opponent, but they have won the other eight, including a 4-2 win over Rosenborg on 30 August. Sandefjord have lost six of nine away matches, so Bodo/Glimt's home form is a major advantage.
- Bodo/Glimt home record: 8 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 28 goals for, 4 against.
- Sandefjord away record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses, 9 goals for, 14 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's home record of 8W-0D-1L and Sandefjord's 3W-0D-6L away record support a home win, though the odds already reflect this.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt or Draw

1.06fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 94%

−2.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt have lost only one home league match this season, making a double chance extremely safe but with minimal value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bodo/Glimt/Bodo/Glimt

1.49fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's tendency to lead at half-time and win supports this outcome, but the odds are shorter than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's home attack is prolific, but the odds already price in a very high probability, leaving no value.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's second-half scoring is strong, but the odds are slightly against the prediction.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's dominant home form and superior squad quality, combined with Sandefjord's poor away record, make a home win highly likely.
- Bodo/Glimt home record: 8W-0D-1L, 28 goals for, 4 against in 9 Eliteserien matches
- Bodo/Glimt last 5 form: WWWWW, averaging 3.4 goals scored per match
- Sandefjord away record: 3W-0D-6L, 9 goals for, 14 against in 9 matches
- H2H last 5: Bodo/Glimt won 4, drew 1, including 3-0 away win in July 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Bodo/Glimt's fortress-like home form and Sandefjord's away struggles, the probability of Bodo/Glimt avoiding defeat is extremely high.
- Bodo/Glimt have lost only 1 home league match this season
- Sandefjord have lost 6 of 9 away matches
- Bodo/Glimt unbeaten in last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half performances and Sandefjord's tendency to trail at the break make a home half-time lead likely.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of matches
- Sandefjord trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals vs Sandefjord's 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's ability to lead at half-time and maintain dominance makes a home/home double result likely.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of matches and won 78% overall
- Sandefjord trailed at half-time in 47% and lost 47% overall
- Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high-scoring attack and Sandefjord's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.9 goals per match overall and 3.1 at home
- Sandefjord concede 1.3 goals per match overall and 1.56 away
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 2.8 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong home defense and Sandefjord's away scoring struggles make it likely that Sandefjord will not score.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 home matches
- Sandefjord have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away matches
- Bodo/Glimt conceded only 4 goals in 9 home league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's defensive solidity at home and Sandefjord's away scoring difficulties support a home clean sheet.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 home matches
- Sandefjord have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away matches
- Bodo/Glimt home goals against average: 0.44 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSandefjord not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's tendency to score early and Sandefjord's first-half defensive lapses make over 1.5 first-half goals plausible.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals per match
- Sandefjord concede 0.6 first-half goals per match
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's continued attacking pressure in the second half and Sandefjord's defensive fatigue support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 second-half goals per match
- Sandefjord concede 0.7 second-half goals per match
- Bodo/Glimt's last 5 matches averaged 2.4 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and Bodo/Glimt's attacking style should produce enough corners to exceed 9.5.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.3 corners per match, Sandefjord 5.6
- Combined average corners in Bodo/Glimt matches: 11.9
- Sandefjord away matches average 10.2 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high shot volume and Sandefjord's defensive pressure should lead to over 8.5 shots on target.
- Bodo/Glimt average 5.4 shots on target per match, Sandefjord 3.9
- Combined average shots on target in Bodo/Glimt matches: 9.3
- Sandefjord away matches average 8.8 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's disciplinary issues, especially away from home, make over 3.5 total cards likely.
- Bodo/Glimt average 0.7 yellow cards per match, Sandefjord 2.3
- Sandefjord away matches average 3.2 total cards
- Sandefjord have received 2+ cards in 8 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt has been highly reliable when projected to win

Bodo/Glimt fulfilled 8 of 9 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 63.1% and an expected 5.7 wins. The only miss was a draw against Rosenborg, while all five home matches were won. The current 78% probability is within the historical range of 45-78%.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien