Phoenix Rising2FC Tulsa1

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 05:03 · Europe/Bucharest

The top actionable takeaway is to back 'Draw or FC Tulsa' in the double chance market at 1.78, offering a +6-point edge based on Tulsa's unbeaten H2H record and Phoenix's modest home form.

Avoid first-half goals over 0.5 at 1.30, as the market significantly overprices the probability of a first-half goal.

Context

Phoenix Rising enter this home match one point below the playoff line, with four home fixtures left in their season.
The September 9 club preview placed Phoenix directly behind Lexington SC on 31 points and called the Tulsa and El Paso home stretch important. Points from this fixture directly affect their late-season postseason qualification position, so the home side has a clear table-driven incentive to pursue a result.
- Phoenix Rising’s September 9 preview said the club was one point outside the playoff picture behind Lexington SC on 31 points.
- The same preview said Phoenix had four home matches remaining and called the Tulsa and El Paso home stretch important.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 05:01 · Europe/BucharestPhoenix Rising FC match previewwww.phxrisingfc.com · 9 Sep 2026
FC Tulsa is 4th in the Western Conference with 36 points, while Phoenix Rising is 9th with 30 points.
FC Tulsa's away record includes 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 14 goals scored and 12 conceded. Phoenix Rising's home record shows 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 20 goals scored and 14 conceded. Both teams have similar defensive records at home and away, but Phoenix Rising's higher goal tally at home suggests they can score, while FC Tulsa's away form shows they are capable of winning on the road.
- FC Tulsa away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches.
- Phoenix Rising home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 11 matches.
FC Tulsa forward R. Cabral has returned from a month-long absence and is rebuilding match fitness.
Cabral was introduced at halftime of the September 5 scoreless draw at San Antonio and has started two of the last five available lineups. His return restores a senior front-line option, but his workload remains a practical selection consideration for Tulsa's attack.
- FC Tulsa’s September 5 preview said R. Cabral had returned from a month-long absence and was being reacclimated to the attack.
- Tulsa introduced Cabral at halftime of the September 5 scoreless draw at San Antonio.
- R. Cabral started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- B. Sparks started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when R. Cabral did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 05:01 · Europe/BucharestFC Tulsa match previewwww.fctulsa.com · 5 Sep 2026
Phoenix Rising and FC Tulsa have met five times since March 2025.
In the most recent meeting on March 29, 2026, the teams drew 1-1. Before that, FC Tulsa won 1-0 at home on November 9, 2025, and the teams drew 1-1 on June 15, 2025. The pattern of low-scoring draws suggests that neither team has a clear advantage in this matchup.
- 2026-03-29: FC Tulsa 1-1 Phoenix Rising
- 2025-11-09: FC Tulsa 1-0 Phoenix Rising
- 2025-06-15: FC Tulsa 1-1 Phoenix Rising

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's superior league position and unbeaten H2H record give them a slight edge despite Phoenix's home advantage.
- FC Tulsa rank 4th with 36 points, Phoenix 9th with 30 points.
- FC Tulsa away record: 4W-3D-3L, Phoenix home record: 5W-4D-2L.
- H2H last 5: FC Tulsa 2W, 3D, 0L vs Phoenix.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Phoenix's modest home form and Tulsa's strong H2H record make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- FC Tulsa unbeaten in last 5 H2H (2W, 3D).
- Phoenix home win rate only 45% (5/11).
- FC Tulsa away loss rate 30% (3/10).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FC TulsaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Tulsa's strong first-half record, Phoenix's home resilience and H2H patterns point to a level first half.
- Phoenix first-half leading rate: 13%, trailing 20%.
- FC Tulsa first-half leading rate: 47%, trailing 7%.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's superior defensive stability could give them an edge in the second half, but confidence is low.
- FC Tulsa second-half goal difference: +0.4 per game (0.7 for, 0.3 against).
- Phoenix second-half goal difference: 0.0 per game (0.7 for, 0.7 against).
- FC Tulsa has better overall defensive record (19 conceded vs Phoenix 31).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible low-probability outcome given the teams' draw tendencies.
- Phoenix home draws: 4 in 11 (36%).
- FC Tulsa away draws: 3 in 10 (30%).
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown consistent dominance to win both halves, making 'No' a strong pick.
- Phoenix won both halves in only 1 of 11 home games.
- FC Tulsa won both halves in 2 of 10 away games.
- Combined probability of either team winning both halves is low.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's strong first-half record and Phoenix's low leading rate make Tulsa or draw the safer first-half double chance.
- FC Tulsa first-half leading rate: 47%, trailing only 7%.
- Phoenix first-half leading rate: 13%, trailing 20%.
- H2H first halves: 3 draws, 1 Tulsa lead, 1 Phoenix lead.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or FC TulsaEstimated chance65%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H suggest a moderately high-scoring match.
- Phoenix home games average 3.1 total goals (20 for, 14 against in 11).
- FC Tulsa away games average 2.6 total goals (14 for, 12 against in 10).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away splits and in direct meetings.
- Phoenix scored in 9 of 11 home games.
- FC Tulsa scored in 8 of 10 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Phoenix first-half goals per game: 0.6, conceded 0.7.
- FC Tulsa first-half goals per game: 0.7, conceded 0.3.
- Combined first-half goal rate exceeds 1.0 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are modest, so over 1.5 second-half goals is a low-confidence lean.
- Phoenix second-half goals per game: 0.7 (1.3 total - 0.6 first half).
- FC Tulsa second-half goals per game: 0.3 (1.0 total - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second-half goal rate is 1.0, below the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates suggest it is more likely that at least one team fails to score before halftime.
- Phoenix first-half goals for: 0.6, against: 0.7.
- FC Tulsa first-half goals for: 0.7, against: 0.3.
- Combined probability of both scoring in first half is moderate.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 30% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Phoenix Rising's Over 2.5 goals projections have been unreliable recently

Phoenix Rising has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 40% success rate. The average estimated probability was 61%, but only 2 matches went over, below the expected 3.1. Notably, missed predictions had a higher average probability (63.3%) than matched ones (57.5%), suggesting higher confidence did not lead to better outcomes.

Recent evidence for Phoenix Rising5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship