Phoenix Rising3Colorado Springs Switchbacks1

HT 1–1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 16:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Colorado Springs Switchbacks offer value at 2.63 to win (45% model vs 38% implied), but the safer play is Draw or Away at 1.50.

Avoid goals markets, especially Over 0.5 first-half goals, which are heavily overpriced.

Context

Colorado Springs last 5 league results: W-L-L-W-W
- Phoenix last 5 league results: L-D-D-W-L
- Colorado Springs won the most recent H2H 3-1 on July 5, 2026
Phoenix home record: 3W-4D-2L
- 44% of Phoenix home matches ended level
- Phoenix have scored 15 and conceded 12 in 9 home games
Colorado Springs away record: 2W-2D-5L
- They have scored 10 and conceded 15 in 9 away games
- They lost their last two away league matches without scoring
USL Championship playoffs take top eight from each conference
- Match is part of the regular-season run-in before October playoffs
- No indication of rotation or dead-rubber mentality

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 78% of their respective home/away matches, but the odds already price this heavily, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined home/away goal averages support a moderately high-scoring game, but the market has already priced in the Over.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

H2H history shows first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings, but the odds are far too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs has better recent form and a positive H2H result, but Phoenix's home advantage and Colorado's poor away record keep confidence medium.
- Colorado Springs away record: 2W-2D-5L, 10 goals for, 15 against in 9 away matches
- Phoenix home record: 3W-4D-2L, 15 goals for, 12 against in 9 home matches
- Colorado Springs overall form last 5: WLLWW; Phoenix last 5: LDDWL
- H2H last meeting: Colorado Springs won 3-1 at home on July 5, 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostColorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Phoenix's low home win rate and high draw rate make the double chance for Colorado Springs or draw a solid medium-confidence pick.
- Phoenix home win rate: 33% (3/9); Colorado away win rate: 22% (2/9)
- Phoenix home draws: 4/9 (44%); Colorado away draws: 2/9 (22%)
- Combined probability of draw or away win based on home/away splits: 67%
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Colorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First half results are often level, and H2H shows a tendency for draws at the break, but data is limited.
- Phoenix first half home record: 7 leads, 27 trails (from averages, but likely skewed by away games)
- Colorado first half away record: 13 leads, 13 trails (from averages)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is possible given Phoenix's high home draw rate, but overall probability is low.
- Phoenix home draws: 4/9 (44%)
- Colorado away draws: 2/9 (22%)
- H2H last 5: 1 draw overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown dominance to win both halves, making 'No' a high-confidence pick.
- Phoenix home matches: only 3 wins, none by winning both halves (no data, but low win rate)
- Colorado away matches: only 2 wins, unlikely to win both halves
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado has a better first half record overall, and Phoenix rarely leads at home, so double chance for away or draw is reasonable.
- Phoenix first half home lead rate: 7/?? (unclear, but overall leading at half time 7 times in 15 matches)
- Colorado first half away lead rate: 13/?? (overall leading at half time 13 times in 15 matches)
- H2H last 5: Colorado led at half time in 1 meeting, draw in 3, Phoenix led in 1
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Colorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance65%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H suggest a moderately high-scoring game, supporting Over 2.5 goals.
- Phoenix home matches average 3.0 total goals (15 for, 12 against in 9 games)
- Colorado away matches average 2.78 total goals (10 for, 15 against in 9 games)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4, 1, 5, 2, 2 goals (average 2.8)
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring rates in their respective home/away splits and leaky defenses, making BTTS likely.
- Phoenix scored in 7 of 9 home matches (78%)
- Colorado scored in 7 of 9 away matches (78%)
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Phoenix conceded in 7 of 9 home matches; Colorado conceded in 8 of 9 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals, making Over 0.5 first half goals a solid pick.
- Phoenix first half goals at home: 0.4 per match average (from overall 0.4 first half goals)
- Colorado first half goals away: 0.6 per match average (from overall 0.6 first half goals)
- Combined first half goal average: 1.0 per match
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is slightly above the line, but variance is high, so confidence is low.
- Phoenix second half goals at home: 0.7 per match (total 1.1 - 0.4 first half)
- Colorado second half goals away: 1.1 per match (total 1.7 - 0.6 first half)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.8 per match
- H2H last 5: second half goals in all meetings, average 1.8
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely both will score before the break.
- Phoenix first half goals at home: 0.4 per match
- Colorado first half goals away: 0.6 per match
- Probability of both scoring in first half: roughly 24% (0.4*0.6) if independent
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on league averages, hence low confidence.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches
- USL Championship average corners per match: approximately 9-10
- Both teams' playing styles suggest moderate corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is missing, so this is a neutral estimate based on league norms and competitive context.
- No card data available for either team in recent matches
- USL Championship average cards per match: approximately 3-4
- Match intensity may be high due to playoff race
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 'No' outcome is heavily favored by the market and our estimate, leaving no value at the current odds.

Prediction history

Phoenix Rising has been unreliable when projected for Over 2.5 goals

Phoenix Rising has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 61%, but only 40% of matches actually went over. Their missed predictions had a higher average probability (63.3%) than matched ones (57.5%), suggesting the model overestimated their scoring potential.

Recent evidence for Phoenix Rising5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship