Ljungskile0Falkenbergs2

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Falkenbergs are the likely winners given their superior away form and Ljungskile's poor home record, with the away win at 2.63 offering clear value.

The double chance Draw or Falkenbergs is also a solid pick, but avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes as the odds leave no edge.

Context

Falkenbergs are third in Superettan with 38 points from 22 matches, level on points with Varbergs and Ostersunds but ahead on goal difference.
They are in the promotion play-off place, but the tight race means dropped points could cost them that spot. Ljungskile are 11th with 25 points and only two points above the relegation line, so they also need a result to avoid slipping closer to danger. This creates a match where both teams have something to fight for, but Falkenbergs' higher position gives them a clearer target.
- Falkenbergs are 3rd with 38 points, level with Varbergs (2nd) and Ostersunds (4th) but ahead on goal difference.
- Ljungskile are 11th with 25 points, only two points above the relegation line.
Ljungskile have a home record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses in Superettan this season.
Their recent home form is poor: they lost to IFK Varnamo 0-1 on 29 August, lost to Osters IF 2-3 on 15 August, and lost to Oddevold 0-1 on 8 August. This suggests they struggle to turn home advantage into points, which could benefit Falkenbergs, who have won 5 of their 11 away matches.
- Ljungskile lost 0-1 at home to IFK Varnamo on 29 August 2026.
- Ljungskile lost 2-3 at home to Osters IF on 15 August 2026.
- Ljungskile lost 0-1 at home to Oddevold on 8 August 2026.
Ljungskile head coach Tor-Arne Fredheim is only weeks into his third spell after Joakim Jensen's appointment ended in late August.
Fredheim's early tenure means selection and tactical patterns from before the change carry less weight. The linked analysis sees Falkenbergs as the likely winner, but the coaching switch adds uncertainty to that view.
- Ljungskile ended Joakim Jensen’s head-coach appointment with immediate effect on 25 August.
- The club named Tor-Arne Fredheim as its new head coach and described the role as his third spell at Ljungskile.
- Ljungskile’s current team page lists Fredheim as head coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:39 · Europe/BucharestLjungskile SK coaching-staff updatewww.lsk.se · 25 Aug 2026Ljungskile SK Värnamo previewwww.lsk.se · 28 Aug 2026Ljungskile SK first-team staffwww.lsk.se · 8 Sep 2026
Falkenbergs have an away record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in Superettan this season.
They have scored 24 goals in those 11 away matches, an average of 2.18 goals per game. Ljungskile have conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches, so Falkenbergs' attacking output on the road could be a key factor in this match.
- Falkenbergs have scored 24 goals in 11 away matches this season.
- Ljungskile have conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' combined goal averages support Over 2.5, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Falkenbergs' superior league position and away scoring output outweigh Ljungskile's home advantage, though Ljungskile's new coach and defensive injury add uncertainty.
- Falkenbergs rank 3rd with 38 points, while Ljungskile rank 11th with 25 points.
- Falkenbergs away record: 5W-2D-4L, 24 goals scored, 20 conceded in 11 away matches.
- Ljungskile home record: 4W-1D-6L, 14 goals scored, 16 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Ljungskile recent form: DLDLL (last 5), Falkenbergs recent form: LWLWD (last 5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFalkenbergsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The high draw frequency in H2H and Ljungskile's poor home form make a Falkenbergs win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Ljungskile have drawn 7 of 22 matches this season.
- Falkenbergs have lost only 6 of 22 matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 draws and 1 Ljungskile win.
- Ljungskile home form: 4W-1D-6L, Falkenbergs away form: 5W-2D-4L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FalkenbergsEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Falkenbergs have a slight first-half edge, but the low probability reflects the high likelihood of a draw at half-time.
- Falkenbergs have led at half-time in 27% of matches.
- Ljungskile have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Falkenbergs average 0.8 first-half goals scored vs Ljungskile's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFalkenbergsEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Falkenbergs win is plausible given their second-half strength, but the probability is low.
- H2H matches often end in draws at half-time.
- Falkenbergs have a stronger second-half scoring record.
- Ljungskile have drawn 7 matches this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FalkenbergsEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages, especially Falkenbergs' attacking output, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Ljungskile average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Falkenbergs average 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Falkenbergs away matches average 4.0 total goals (24 scored + 20 conceded in 11 games).
- Ljungskile home matches average 2.7 total goals (14 scored + 16 conceded in 11 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Ljungskile have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Falkenbergs have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Ljungskile have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Falkenbergs have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Falkenbergs' high first-half goal involvement and Ljungskile's tendency to concede early make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Ljungskile average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Falkenbergs average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Falkenbergs have trailed at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Ljungskile have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, but the estimate is less certain due to limited half-specific data.
- Ljungskile average 1.3 goals per match, with many coming in the second half.
- Falkenbergs average 2.2 goals per match, with strong second-half scoring.
- Combined second-half goal average estimated at 1.5+ based on total goals and first-half splits.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages slightly exceed 8.5, but limited recent corner data for both teams makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Ljungskile average 4.5 corners per match, Falkenbergs average 4.4 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 8.9 per match.
- Recent matches show variability, with some games having fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above 8.5, but limited recent data for both teams makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Ljungskile average 4.3 shots on target per match.
- Falkenbergs average 4.8 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.1 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is limited and inconsistent, making this a speculative pick based on recent disciplinary trends.
- Ljungskile average 2 yellow cards per match.
- Falkenbergs average 0.4 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.4 per match, but recent matches show higher card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%