USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Corpus Christi1Union Omaha2

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 07:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Omaha are favored but the market overprices their chances; avoid short odds on away win, double chance, and first-half markets.

The best relative value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, though the edge is slightly negative. Watch for late roster news on Vargas and Borczak, which could impact Omaha's strength.

Context

Union Omaha midfielder M. Vargas has started four of the last five team fixtures with available lineups.
The parent-club recall announced on September 9 is still pending league and federation approval, so his availability for this match is unresolved. If the recall is approved, Union Omaha would lose a regular starter in midfield and face a late adjustment to their matchday group. Until the approval is confirmed, the situation creates uncertainty about the away side's lineup.
- New Mexico United announced on September 9 that it had recalled M. Vargas from Union Omaha.
- The announcement states that the recall is pending league and federation approval.
- M. Vargas started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestNew Mexico United recall announcementwww.newmexicoutd.com · 9 Sep 2026
Union Omaha beat Charlotte Independence 2-0 on September 5, a result that tied them for top spot in the league.
That result keeps Union Omaha in the Players' Shield race ahead of their first trip to Corpus Christi. The leading-place stakes support a full competitive approach rather than reduced incentives. The linked analysis sees Union Omaha as the likely match winner and unlikely to lose, based on their stronger record and top-of-table motivation.
- Union Omaha beat Charlotte Independence 2-0 on September 5.
- The club said the result tied Omaha for top spot and identified Corpus Christi as the next trip.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestUnion Omaha match reportwww.unionomaha.com · 5 Sep 2026
Union Omaha are second in USL League One with 49 points, but their away record is much weaker than their home form.
They have won 6 and lost 6 of 12 away league games, scoring 15 and conceding 15. That split suggests they are less reliable on the road, and Corpus Christi's home record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses is competitive. The visitors' away struggles could make this match closer than the standings suggest.
- Union Omaha away record: 6 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses in 12 matches, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded.
- Corpus Christi home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 12 matches, with 16 goals scored and 15 conceded.
Union Omaha attacker Dylan Borczak has not started any of the last five team fixtures with available lineups.
The loan to FC Tulsa announced on September 8 is also pending league and federation approval, with an expected availability date of September 12. If approved, Borczak would be removed from Union Omaha's matchday group, but his limited recent starts suggest the impact on the starting lineup would be smaller. The pending status leaves his involvement for this match uncertain.
- FC Tulsa announced on September 8 that it had acquired Dylan Borczak on loan from Union Omaha.
- FC Tulsa said the transaction was pending league and federation approval and that Borczak was expected to be available on September 12.
- Dylan Borczak started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestFC Tulsa loan announcementwww.fctulsa.com · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Union Omaha

1.92fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Union Omaha's superior overall record and motivation are offset by Corpus Christi's home advantage and the market already prices them as favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Union Omaha

1.28fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Union Omaha not losing, but Corpus Christi's home draws and recent inconsistency suggest the true probability is lower.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Union Omaha

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The odds heavily discount a Corpus Christi first-half lead, but their home first-half stats and Union Omaha's away first-half inconsistency suggest more risk.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 3 combined goals per match, and Union Omaha's attacking output supports a decent chance of at least three total goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making it likely that each side finds the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Union Omaha particularly strong early, supporting at least one goal before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's stronger overall record and away form, combined with their top-of-table motivation, give them the edge despite Corpus Christi's home advantage.
- Union Omaha rank 2nd with 49 points, while Corpus Christi rank 10th with 30 points.
- Union Omaha away record: 6W-0D-6L, 15 goals for, 15 against; Corpus Christi home record: 5W-4D-3L, 16 goals for, 15 against.
- Union Omaha average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over last 15; Corpus Christi average 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- H2H: Union Omaha beat Corpus Christi 2-1 at home on 2026-03-28.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha are unlikely to lose given their superior form and motivation, while Corpus Christi's high draw rate at home supports the double chance.
- Union Omaha have lost only 6 of 25 matches this season.
- Corpus Christi have drawn 9 of 24 matches, including 4 home draws.
- Union Omaha away record shows no draws, but their overall draw rate is 16%.
- Corpus Christi's recent form is inconsistent (LDLWW).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Union OmahaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's stronger first-half scoring record gives them a slight edge to be ahead at the break, though the probability remains modest.
- Union Omaha led at halftime in 27% of their matches, while Corpus Christi led in 20%.
- Union Omaha average 0.8 first-half goals scored vs Corpus Christi's 0.4.
- Union Omaha trailed at halftime in 33% of matches, Corpus Christi in 40%.
- H2H: Union Omaha led 1-0 at halftime in the previous meeting.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Union Omaha win is plausible given Corpus Christi's tendency to start slowly and Omaha's overall strength.
- Corpus Christi drew at halftime in 40% of matches (6 of 15).
- Union Omaha won 60% of their matches overall.
- Union Omaha's away record: 6 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses.
- Corpus Christi's home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Union OmahaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha have the capability to dominate both halves, but the probability is low given the competitive nature of the league.
- Union Omaha won both halves in 2 of their last 15 matches (13%).
- Corpus Christi lost both halves in 3 of their last 15 matches (20%).
- Union Omaha average 0.8 first-half goals and 1.1 second-half goals.
- Corpus Christi average 0.4 first-half goals and 0.9 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostUnion OmahaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha are unlikely to be trailing at halftime given their superior first-half scoring, and a draw is also a strong possibility.
- Union Omaha led at halftime in 27% of matches, drew in 40%, trailed in 33%.
- Corpus Christi led at halftime in 20%, drew in 40%, trailed in 40%.
- Union Omaha average 0.8 first-half goals vs Corpus Christi's 0.4.
- H2H: Union Omaha led at halftime.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Union OmahaEstimated chance70%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and Union Omaha's attacking output suggests a decent chance of at least three total goals.
- Union Omaha average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.
- Corpus Christi average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.2 (1.9+1.3).
- Union Omaha's last 5 matches: 2-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-1, 5-1 (total goals: 2,2,2,2,6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Corpus Christi scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Union Omaha conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Union Omaha scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Corpus Christi conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Union Omaha particularly strong early, supporting at least one goal before the break.
- Corpus Christi average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Union Omaha average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.2 (0.4+0.8).
- In H2H on 2026-03-28, first half had 1 goal (Union Omaha 1-0 at HT).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as teams push for results, and both teams' scoring rates suggest a reasonable chance of two or more goals after halftime.
- Corpus Christi average 0.9 second-half goals scored (1.3 total - 0.4 first half).
- Union Omaha average 1.1 second-half goals scored (1.9 total - 0.8 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 2.0.
- Recent matches show second-half goals in most games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of both teams scoring in the first half across their recent matches suggests it is unlikely to happen again.
- Corpus Christi scored in the first half in only 5 of 15 matches (33%).
- Union Omaha scored in the first half in 9 of 15 matches (60%).
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 3 of 15 matches for each team (20%).
- H2H first half: Union Omaha 1-0 Corpus Christi.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds imply a 52% chance for Union Omaha, but our estimate is only 45%, leaving no value and potential downside.

Prediction history

Union Omaha has struggled to convert win projections

Union Omaha has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions, a 20% rate. Expected wins were 2.4 based on average probability, indicating underperformance. All three away matches were lost, and the current away fixture aligns with that trend.

Recent evidence for Union Omaha5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One