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Predictions graded

Union Omaha2Charlotte Independence0

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Omaha's unbeaten home record makes them slight favourites, but the only clear betting edge is the first-half double chance 'Charlotte or Draw' at 1.65 (model 70% vs implied 60.6%).

Avoid the full-match double chance on Omaha (no value) and over 2.5 goals (negative edge).

Context

Charlotte Independence are first in USL League One with 49 points from 23 matches, while Union Omaha are second with 46 points from 24 matches.
A win for Charlotte would extend their lead to six points, while a Union Omaha victory would draw them level on points. Charlotte have a stronger goal difference of +24 compared to Union Omaha's +14, so Union Omaha likely need to win to overtake them. This match directly affects who finishes first and secures the best playoff seeding.
- Charlotte Independence rank 1st with 49 points; Union Omaha rank 2nd with 46 points.
- Charlotte have a goal difference of +24; Union Omaha have +14.
- Both teams are in promotion playoff positions.
Charlotte lead the table with 49 points and a game in hand, while Omaha sit second on 46. The first league meeting ended 2-0 to Charlotte on June 10.
A win for Omaha would cut the gap to zero points, though Charlotte would still hold the game in hand. That direct incentive can influence how aggressively each side approaches the match, especially in the second half if the score is level. The earlier 2-0 Charlotte win shows they can beat Omaha, but that was at home and does not guarantee the same outcome at Morrison Stadium.
- Charlotte Independence were listed first with 49 points before the match.
- Union Omaha were listed second with 46 points.
- Charlotte had a game in hand over Omaha.
- Charlotte won the first league meeting 2-0 on June 10.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/BucharestCharlotte Independence match previewwww.charlotteindependence.com · 4 Sep 2026
Union Omaha have played 12 home matches in USL League One this season, winning 8 and drawing 4 without a loss.
Their home record includes 26 goals scored and 12 conceded, showing they are solid at home. Charlotte Independence have a weaker away record with 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in 10 away matches, scoring 19 and conceding 17. This contrast suggests Union Omaha may have an advantage playing at home, but Charlotte's overall quality could still challenge them.
- Union Omaha home record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in 12 matches.
- Union Omaha have scored 26 goals and conceded 12 at home.
- Charlotte Independence away record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches.
Omaha are 8-0-4 at Morrison Stadium in 2026 and have not lost a league home match all season, with a 23-match home unbeaten run across Werner Park and Morrison Stadium.
Charlotte must break down a side that has been extremely difficult to beat at home. Omaha's defensive organisation and familiarity with the venue give them a clear advantage in this fixture. Charlotte's away form has been less consistent, so the hosts are well placed to control the game and create the better chances.
- Charlotte’s official preview listed Omaha at 8-0-4 at Morrison Stadium in 2026.
- That preview said Omaha had not lost a league home match in 2026.
- Union Omaha’s August 31 release described a 23-match home unbeaten run across Werner Park and Morrison Stadium.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/BucharestCharlotte Independence match previewwww.charlotteindependence.com · 4 Sep 2026Union Omaha updateswww.oursportscentral.com · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Union Omaha or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Union Omaha's unbeaten home record and Charlotte's inconsistent away form make the double chance a high-probability outcome, but the odds offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's unbeaten home record and Charlotte's mediocre away form give the hosts a slight edge, though Charlotte's overall quality keeps it close.
- Union Omaha home record: 8W-4D-0L, 26 goals for, 12 against in 12 league matches
- Charlotte away record: 3W-4D-3L, 19 goals for, 17 against in 10 league matches
- Union Omaha last 5 league form: D-L-D-W-W (8 points from 15)
- Charlotte last 5 league form: W-W-D-W-L (10 points from 15)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's strong home form and Charlotte's inconsistent away results make the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Union Omaha home record: 8W-4D-0L in 12 league matches
- Charlotte away record: 3W-4D-3L in 10 league matches
- Union Omaha have not lost at home in 2026 league play
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUnion Omaha or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's strong first-half record and Union Omaha's tendency to trail at the break give the visitors a slight first-half edge.
- Charlotte leading at half time in 67% of matches
- Union Omaha leading at half time in only 20% of matches
- Charlotte first half goals away: 1.2 per match
- Union Omaha first half goals conceded at home: 0.9 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCharlotte IndependenceEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's home second-half scoring and Charlotte's away second-half defensive weakness suggest a possible home second-half win.
- Union Omaha second half goals at home: 1.2 per match
- Charlotte second half goals conceded away: 1.2 per match
- Union Omaha have scored more second-half goals at home than first-half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Union Omaha win is a plausible scenario given their home resilience and Charlotte's away inconsistency.
- Union Omaha home matches often see them trailing or drawing at half time before improving
- Union Omaha have not lost at home in 2026 league play
- Charlotte away matches have seen them lead at half time in 67% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Union OmahaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong record of winning both halves, making 'No' a high-probability outcome.
- Union Omaha have won both halves in only 1 of 12 home league matches
- Charlotte have won both halves in only 2 of 10 away league matches
- Both teams rarely dominate both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's strong first-half record and Union Omaha's tendency to trail at the break make Charlotte or draw a solid first-half double chance.
- Charlotte leading at half time in 67% of matches
- Union Omaha leading at half time in only 20% of matches
- Charlotte first half goals away: 1.2 per match
- Union Omaha first half goals conceded at home: 0.9 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostCharlotte Independence or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies in their respective home/away splits, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Union Omaha home matches average 3.17 total goals (26 for, 12 against in 12)
- Charlotte away matches average 3.60 total goals (19 for, 17 against in 10)
- Union Omaha last 5 league matches: 1-1, 0-2, 1-1, 5-1, 3-1 (avg 3.2 goals)
- Charlotte last 5 league matches: 3-2, 5-0, 1-1, 3-1, 2-4 (avg 4.4 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Union Omaha have scored in 10 of 12 home league matches
- Charlotte have scored in 9 of 10 away league matches
- Union Omaha have conceded in 8 of 12 home league matches
- Charlotte have conceded in 8 of 10 away league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, especially Charlotte away, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Union Omaha first half goals at home: 0.7 per match average
- Charlotte first half goals away: 1.2 per match average
- Union Omaha first half goals conceded at home: 0.9 per match average
- Charlotte first half goals conceded away: 0.3 per match average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common in both teams' matches, with Charlotte's away matches averaging 2.2 second-half goals.
- Union Omaha second half goals at home: 1.2 per match average
- Charlotte second half goals away: 1.0 per match average
- Union Omaha second half goals conceded at home: 0.3 per match average
- Charlotte second half goals conceded away: 1.2 per match average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is possible but less likely due to Charlotte's strong first-half defense away.
- Union Omaha first half goals at home: 0.7 per match
- Charlotte first half goals away: 1.2 per match
- Union Omaha first half goals conceded at home: 0.9 per match
- Charlotte first half goals conceded away: 0.3 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57.1% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Union Omaha has struggled to convert win projections

Union Omaha has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions, a 20% success rate. The average estimated probability was 48.6%, but only one match ended in a win, with three losses and one draw among the misses. Notably, the single fulfilled prediction came at home, while all three away projections failed.

Recent evidence for Union Omaha5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One

Union Omaha2-2

Westchester SC

BetBugsUnion Omaha to win·68%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

USL League One

Union Omaha2-2

Westchester SC

Union Omaha to win

68%probability

Draw

Missed

12 Jul·USL Cup

Forward Madison4-3

Union Omaha

BetBugsUnion Omaha to win·45%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

USL Cup

Forward Madison4-3

Union Omaha

Union Omaha to win

45%probability

Forward Madison won

Missed

2 Jul·USL League One

Union Omaha3-1

AV Alta FC

BetBugsUnion Omaha to win·45%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

USL League One

Union Omaha3-1

AV Alta FC

Union Omaha to win

45%probability

Union Omaha won

Matched

21 Jun·USL League One

AC Boise1-0

Union Omaha

BetBugsUnion Omaha to win·40%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

USL League One

AC Boise1-0

Union Omaha

Union Omaha to win

40%probability

AC Boise won

Missed

14 Jun·USL League One

Sarasota Paradise2-0

Union Omaha

BetBugsUnion Omaha to win·45%

Missed

14 Jun 2026

USL League One

Sarasota Paradise2-0

Union Omaha

Union Omaha to win

45%probability

Sarasota Paradise won

Missed

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L2-0Charlotte IndependencevUnion OmahaJun 10, 2026USL

W4-1Union OmahavCharlotte IndependenceAug 21, 2025USL

W1-2Charlotte IndependencevUnion OmahaJul 12, 2025USL

W1-4Charlotte IndependencevUnion OmahaMay 17, 2024USL

D0-0Union OmahavCharlotte IndependenceApr 20, 2024USL

Charlotte Independence: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Union Omaha Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	24	14	4	6	41-27	46	DLDWW
1	Charlotte Independence Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	23	15	4	4	55-31	49	WWDWW