USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

FC Naples2Union Omaha0

HT 1–0Wed 26 Aug 2026, 23:36 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 23:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Omaha are the likely winners, but the odds offer no value.

The best edge is avoiding the overpriced first-half goals over 0.5 market (implied 77.5% vs model 65%). Naples' coaching change adds uncertainty, but not enough to back them.

Context

FC Naples announced the coaching change on July 10, 2026.
- Zak Gordon was promoted from assistant coach to interim head coach.
- The club stated it remains focused on a playoff place.
Union Omaha away record: 6W-0D-5L.
- They have scored 15 goals and conceded 13 in 11 away matches.
- Recent away wins include 3-1 at Chattanooga and 2-0 at Fort Wayne.
FC Naples first half goals: 0.3 per match.
- They have trailed at halftime in 53% of recent matches.
- In their last 15 matches, they scored a first-half goal in only 4 games.
Union Omaha won 2-1 on May 30, 2026.
- FC Naples won 3-1 on May 25, 2025.
- The 2025 playoff quarterfinal ended 0-0, with Naples winning on penalties.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Union Omaha

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Union Omaha's consistency and Naples' poor overall record make the away side or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches trend toward higher scoring, and Omaha's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's superior league position, away form, and recent momentum outweigh Naples' home advantage and coaching change uncertainty.
- Union Omaha rank 1st with 45 points from 22 matches; FC Naples rank 11th with 23 points from 21 matches.
- Union Omaha away record: 6W-0D-5L, 15 goals scored, 13 conceded in 11 away matches.
- FC Naples home record: 5W-1D-4L, 13 goals scored, 15 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Union Omaha recent form: DWWWW in last 5; FC Naples recent form: WLWLL in last 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUnion OmahaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's consistency and Naples' poor overall record make the away side or draw highly likely.
- Union Omaha have lost only 5 of 22 league matches this season.
- FC Naples have lost 12 of 21 league matches, including 4 of 10 at home.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 2 Union Omaha wins, 1 FC Naples win, 1 draw (Naples won on penalties).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Union OmahaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low first-half lead percentages, making a draw at halftime plausible.
- FC Naples leading at half time in 27% of recent matches, trailing in 53%.
- Union Omaha leading at half time in 20% of recent matches, trailing in 33%.
- H2H last 4 meetings half-time results: 1 draw, 1 draw, 1 Omaha lead, 1 Naples lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Omaha win is a plausible scenario given Omaha's second-half strength.
- Union Omaha have won 14 of 22 matches, often after competitive first halves.
- FC Naples have drawn at halftime in 3 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last meeting: Union Omaha won 2-1 after trailing 0-1 at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Union OmahaEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend toward higher scoring, and Omaha's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.
- FC Naples average 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 goals conceded per match over last 15.
- Union Omaha average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match over last 15.
- Combined average total goals in these teams' recent matches: 3.2 (Naples) + 3.4 (Omaha) = 3.3.
- H2H last 4 meetings produced 2, 0, 3, and 4 goals (average 2.25).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- FC Naples scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Union Omaha scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Naples conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Union Omaha conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest at least one goal before halftime is likely.
- FC Naples first half goals: 0.3 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.9 per match.
- Union Omaha first half goals: 0.7 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match.
- Combined first half goal average: 1.3 per match.
- In H2H last 4 meetings, first half goals: 1, 0, 1, 1 (average 0.75).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- FC Naples average 1.1 total goals per match, with 0.3 in first half, implying 0.8 in second half.
- Union Omaha average 2.1 total goals per match, with 0.7 in first half, implying 1.4 in second half.
- Combined second half goal average: 2.2 per match.
- H2H last 4 meetings second half goals: 1, 0, 2, 3 (average 1.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a neutral estimate based on league averages.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- USL League One average corners per match is typically around 9-10.
- No specific corner trends can be derived from the input.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without card data, this is a neutral estimate based on league averages.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- USL League One average cards per match is typically around 3-4.
- No specific discipline trends can be derived from the input.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 28% leaves no cushion vs our 25% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Union Omaha has struggled to convert win projections recently

Union Omaha has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions, a 20% success rate. The expected fulfilment based on average probability was 2.4, indicating underperformance. All three away matches ended in losses, while the only win came at home.

Recent evidence for Union Omaha5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One