Union Omaha1Sarasota Paradise1

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–4–143%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Omaha are massive value at 3.50 to win at home, with a 70% estimated probability versus 28.6% implied.

Their unbeaten home record and Sarasota's dreadful away form (1W-2D-8L) make the home win, double chance, or draw no bet the standout plays. Avoid BTTS Yes and first-half over 0.5 goals, as both are heavily overpriced.

Context

Sarasota played at home on August 19, three days before this match.
- The match is in Omaha, Nebraska, requiring travel from Florida.
- No injury or rotation news is confirmed, but the schedule is tight.
Home record: 8W-2D-0L.
- 24 goals scored and 10 conceded at Morrison Stadium.
- Only 5 losses in 21 overall matches.
Away record: 1W-2D-8L.
- 7 goals scored and 21 conceded in 11 away matches.
- Only 6 wins in 21 overall matches.
June 13, 2026: Sarasota Paradise 2-0 Union Omaha.
- Emiliano Terzaghi scored and assisted.
- The match was played at Sarasota's home venue.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's perfect home record and Sarasota's poor away form, combined with the 23-point gap in the standings, strongly favor the home side.
- Union Omaha home record: 8W-2D-0L, 24 goals scored, 10 conceded in 10 home matches
- Sarasota away record: 1W-2D-8L, 7 goals scored, 21 conceded in 11 away matches
- Union Omaha overall: 14W-2D-5L, 39 goals scored, 23 conceded; Sarasota: 6W-3D-12L, 22 scored, 35 conceded
- Last 5 form: Union Omaha WWWWD; Sarasota WLLDD
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUnion OmahaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Union Omaha's home invincibility and Sarasota's away struggles, the home side is highly unlikely to lose.
- Union Omaha unbeaten at home (8W-2D-0L)
- Sarasota has only 1 away win in 11 matches
- Union Omaha has lost only 5 of 21 matches overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUnion Omaha or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's home advantage and Sarasota's slow starts on the road give the home side a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Union Omaha led at halftime in 20% of matches; trailed in 27%
- Sarasota led at halftime in 21% of matches; trailed in 29%
- Union Omaha's last 5 home matches: led at halftime in 2, drew in 3
- Sarasota's last 5 away matches: led at halftime in 1, drew in 2, trailed in 2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's ability to hold leads at home and Sarasota's poor away record make a home win from a halftime lead plausible.
- Union Omaha home record: 8W-2D-0L, with 4 wins after leading at halftime
- Sarasota away record: 1W-2D-8L, with 0 wins after leading at halftime
- Union Omaha's last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 2 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostUnion Omaha/Union OmahaEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and home/away splits show a tendency for goals, with Union Omaha's attacking strength at home likely to produce a high-scoring game.
- Union Omaha home matches average 3.4 total goals (24+10 in 10 games)
- Sarasota away matches average 2.55 total goals (7+21 in 11 games)
- Union Omaha's last 5 matches: 5-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2 (all but one over 2.5)
- Sarasota's last 5 matches: 3-2, 1-3, 1-2, 2-2, 2-1 (three over 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite the gap in quality, both teams have shown vulnerability in defense and ability to score, making BTTS a plausible outcome.
- Union Omaha has conceded in 6 of their last 10 home matches
- Sarasota has scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches
- Union Omaha's last 5 matches: both teams scored in 4
- Sarasota's last 5 matches: both teams scored in 4
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sarasota's away scoring struggles give Union Omaha a chance at a clean sheet, but the home side's own defensive lapses make it less certain.
- Union Omaha kept 4 clean sheets in 10 home matches
- Sarasota failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches
- Sarasota's away goals per game: 0.64
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSarasota Paradise not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Union Omaha's home attacking intent likely to produce an early goal.
- Union Omaha first half goals per game: 0.7; conceded 0.7
- Sarasota first half goals per game: 0.4; conceded 0.8
- Union Omaha's last 5 matches: first half goals in 4 (3-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 1-1)
- Sarasota's last 5 matches: first half goals in 4 (3-1, 0-3, 0-0, 2-0, 0-0)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's strong second-half scoring at home and Sarasota's tendency to concede late suggest over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Union Omaha's second half goals per game: 1.4 (2.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Sarasota's second half goals per game: 0.9 (1.3 total - 0.4 first half)
- Union Omaha's last 5 matches: second half goals in all 5 (2, 2, 2, 0, 1)
- Sarasota's last 5 matches: second half goals in 4 (1, 0, 1, 0, 1)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a speculative pick based on expected game flow, with Union Omaha likely to dominate possession and create set-piece opportunities.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches
- Union Omaha's attacking style at home likely generates corners
- Sarasota's defensive posture away may concede corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% far exceeds our 20% estimate; the away side's poor road record makes this a trap.

Prediction history

Union Omaha has been unreliable when projected to win

Union Omaha has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions (20%). The average estimated probability was 48.6%, but only one match resulted in a win, with three losses and one draw. The current prediction of 70% is above the historical range of 40-68%, suggesting a higher confidence than recent evidence supports.

Recent evidence for Union Omaha5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One