Chicago Fire1New England Revolution2

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 22–4On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 13–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 06:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Chicago Fire are favored at home against New England Revolution, but the odds offer no value on the home win, double chance, or Over 2.5 goals.

The only slight edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91, but it's a low-confidence play. Avoid the heavily juiced markets and look for better spots elsewhere.

Context

Chicago Fire sit third in the Eastern Conference with 38 points from 22 matches.
Their last five league results are DDDWW, including a 4-4 draw at Toronto FC on September 5 and a 2-2 draw at Seattle Sounders on August 29. This run suggests they are difficult to beat, but the two most recent draws also show defensive vulnerability, conceding six goals in those games.
- Chicago Fire's last five MLS matches: DDDWW (draws vs Toronto FC, Seattle Sounders, New York Red Bulls; wins vs Orlando City SC, Portland Timbers).
- Most recent: 4-4 draw at Toronto FC on 2026-09-05, conceding four goals.
- Previous: 2-2 draw at Seattle Sounders on 2026-08-29.
Chicago's only match between the Toronto draw and this fixture is at Soldier Field, while New England travel from Los Angeles to New York before coming to Chicago.
New England carries additional travel and a longer away sequence, which can affect recovery management and selection depth. Chicago's home-based preparation may allow for more settled rotation across the short turnaround.
- Chicago completed its four-game league road trip at Toronto on September 5 and hosts Inter Miami at Soldier Field on September 9.
- New England’s September schedule lists away matches at LA Galaxy on September 5, New York City FC on September 9, and Chicago on September 13.
- New England described the New York City match as the third straight road game in a four-game road stretch.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:32 · Europe/BucharestChicago Fire FC Toronto recapwww.chicagofirefc.com · 5 Sep 2026New England Revolution 2026 schedulewww.revolutionsoccer.net · 20 Nov 2025New England preview at New York City FCwww.revolutionsoccer.net · 9 Sep 2026
New England Revolution are fourth in the Eastern Conference with 37 points from 23 matches.
Their away record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 15 goals scored and 18 conceded. This poor away form contrasts with their strong home record of 8 wins in 12 matches, suggesting they are less effective on the road.
- New England Revolution away record: 3W-2D-6L in 11 matches, 15 goals for, 18 against.
- Home record: 8W-2D-2L in 12 matches, 22 goals for, 11 against.
Chicago and New England were projected third and fourth in the East on September 7, placing both in the Round One field as the regular season enters its final two months.
The fixture directly affects postseason seeding incentives for two teams currently in adjacent Round One positions. Both sides have a concrete stake in the result beyond the immediate three points.
- MLS placed Chicago Fire FC third and New England Revolution fourth in its September 7 Eastern Conference projection.
- MLS states that seeds one through seven in each conference qualify for the Round One Best-of-3 Series.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:32 · Europe/BucharestMLS playoff projectionwww.mlssoccer.com · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Chicago Fire

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Chicago's strong home form (7W-0D-3L) and New England's poor away record (3W-2D-6L) support a home win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chicago Fire or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Chicago's home unbeaten rate (70%) and New England's away struggles support avoiding defeat, but the odds are too short relative to our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's strong home form and New England's poor away record give the Fire a clear edge, reinforced by their recent unbeaten run.
- Chicago home record: 7W-0D-3L, 20 goals for, 11 against in 10 matches
- New England away record: 3W-2D-6L, 15 goals for, 18 against in 11 matches
- Chicago last 5 form: DDDWW (unbeaten in 5), New England last 5: LWDWL
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChicago FireEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's home resilience and New England's away struggles make the home side avoiding defeat highly likely.
- Chicago home unbeaten rate: 70% (7W, 0D, 3L)
- New England away win rate: 27% (3W in 11)
- H2H last 5: Chicago 2W, 2D, 1L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostChicago Fire or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates and often go into the break level, making a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Chicago leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 33%
- New England leading at half time in 27%, trailing in 40%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's superior second-half scoring and home advantage give them a slight edge to win the second period.
- Chicago second half goal difference: +0.5 per match (1.3 for, 0.8 against)
- New England second half goal difference: -0.2 per match (0.7 for, 0.9 against)
- Chicago home second half performance tends to be stronger
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonChicago FireEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Chicago win is a plausible scenario given the Fire's second-half strength and home advantage.
- Chicago home matches: 3 of 10 were level at half time and won at full time
- New England away matches: 2 of 11 were level at half time and lost at full time
- H2H last 5: 1 match had draw at half time and Chicago win at full time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Chicago FireEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and recent head-to-head meetings support an open game.
- Chicago home matches average 3.1 total goals (20 for, 11 against in 10)
- New England away matches average 3.0 total goals (15 for, 18 against in 11)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net in their respective home/away splits, and their recent meetings have been high-scoring.
- Chicago home: scored in 9 of 10, conceded in 7 of 10
- New England away: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 10 of 11
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 0.8 first-half goals, suggesting a decent chance of two or more before the break.
- Chicago first half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.8 against
- New England first half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.9 against
- Combined first half average: 1.6 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to produce more goals for both teams, especially Chicago, making over 1.5 likely.
- Chicago second half goals average: 1.3 (2.1 total - 0.8 first half)
- New England second half goals average: 0.7 (1.5 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a combined average of over 10 corners per match, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Chicago average corners per match: 4.3, opponent corners: 5.1
- New England average corners per match: 5.8, opponent corners: 4.9
- Combined average corners: 10.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams combine for over 10 shots on target per match on average, supporting an over 9.5 line.
- Chicago average shots on target: 5.5, opponent shots on target: 4.9
- New England average shots on target: 5.1, opponent shots on target: 4.5
- Combined average shots on target: 10.6
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards is around 4.0, making over 3.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Chicago average yellow cards: 2.3, opponent yellow cards: 1.9
- New England average yellow cards: 1.7, opponent yellow cards: 1.7
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D2-2New England RevolutionvChicago FireOct 18, 2025MAJ

W3-2Chicago FirevNew England RevolutionSep 7, 2025MAJ

W1-3New England RevolutionvChicago FireMay 20, 2025US

L0-1Chicago FirevNew England RevolutionMay 5, 2024MAJ

D1-1New England RevolutionvChicago FireMar 23, 2024MAJ

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Chicago Fire Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	22	11	5	6	43-32	38	DDDWW
4	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	23	11	4	8	37-29	37	LWDWL