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Predictions graded

CF Montreal0Chicago Fire2

HT 0–1Sat 16 May 2026, 20:40 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 16–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 20:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Chicago Fire are well-positioned to avoid defeat against a CF Montreal team reeling from a coaching change and missing key attackers.

The top betting value is on Double Chance (Draw or Chicago Fire) and First Half Under 1.5 Goals, with Both Teams to Score – No also offering a strong edge given Montreal's scoring struggles in this fixture.

Context

Donadel was fired after a 1-6-1 start, with Montreal sitting near the bottom of the standings.
- Under Eullaffroy, Montreal have won 3 of 5 home games but lost heavily away, showing mixed form.
- The coaching instability could affect tactical preparation and player focus for this match.
Herbers, Ibrahim, and Synchuk are all confirmed out with lower-body, back, and unspecified injuries respectively.
- These three have contributed to Montreal's attack this season, and their absence reduces goal threat.
- Montreal have failed to score in three of the last five H2H meetings, and this depletion makes a repeat more likely.
In the most recent meeting (Feb 28, 2026), Chicago won 3-0 at home with all goals after halftime.
- The previous meeting (Jul 20, 2025) ended 2-0 to Chicago at Saputo Stadium.
- Montreal have failed to score in three of the last five H2H encounters overall.
Chicago's away results include wins at DC United and Philadelphia, and draws at Columbus and Cincinnati.
- They have kept two clean sheets in five away matches, showing defensive organization.
- Montreal's home form (W3 D1 L1) is decent, but Chicago's away resilience could neutralize it.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's strong H2H psychology and Montreal's coaching instability give the visitors an edge, though Montreal's solid home form keeps it competitive.
- Chicago Fire won last 2 H2H meetings to nil (3-0 on Feb 28, 2026; 2-0 on Jul 20, 2025)
- CF Montreal are under interim coach after Donadel fired on April 12, 2026
- Chicago Fire away record this season: W2 D2 L1, goals 9:7
- CF Montreal home record: W3 D1 L1, but recent form includes heavy away losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonChicago FireEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's H2H dominance and Montreal's transitional phase make a home win unlikely, supporting a double chance for the away side.
- Chicago unbeaten in last 3 MLS H2H (W2 D1)
- CF Montreal have scored 0 goals in last 180 minutes vs Chicago
- Montreal home record: W3 D1 L1, but overall season struggles (4W 1D 7L)
- Chicago away record: only 1 loss in 5 away games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Chicago FireEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously in this fixture, with Montreal's home energy balanced by Chicago's solid first-half defense, making a draw at halftime likely.
- CF Montreal first half record: leading at HT in 53% of matches, but recent H2H first halves: 0-0 in last meeting, 1-0 Chicago in previous
- Chicago Fire first half: leading at HT in 40%, trailing in 20%
- Montreal home first half goals: 1.1 avg; Chicago away first half goals conceded: 0.5 avg
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's ability to finish strong, as seen in the last H2H, could give them the edge in the second half if the game is tight.
- Chicago scored all 3 goals in second half of last H2H (Feb 2026)
- Montreal conceded 1.9 goals per game overall, often late
- Chicago's away second-half performance: scored 5 of 9 away goals after HT
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableChicago FireEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the last H2H pattern is possible, with a tight first half followed by Chicago pulling away, though the probability is modest.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at HT, 3-0 FT for Chicago
- Montreal home HT-FT: often lead at HT but fade? Actually 53% lead at HT, but recent form shows vulnerability
- Chicago away: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; often draw at HT then win
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Chicago FireEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's attacking injuries and Chicago's recent defensive success in this fixture suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Chicago kept clean sheets in last 2 H2H meetings
- CF Montreal failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2H vs Chicago
- Montreal missing attackers Herbers, Ibrahim, Synchuk; midfielder Escobar questionable
- Chicago conceded in 4 of 5 away games this season, but Montreal's attack is depleted
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Injuries to Montreal's attack and Chicago's ability to keep clean sheets in H2H point to a low-scoring affair.
- Last 2 H2H: 3-0 and 2-0 (both under 2.5 goals excluding the 3-0 which is exactly 3, but recent trend is low-scoring for Montreal)
- CF Montreal home goals: 10 in 5 games (2.0 per game), but against stronger defenses they struggle
- Chicago away goals: 9 in 5 games (1.8 per game), but they may control tempo
- Montreal missing key attackers; Chicago missing defender Barroso and midfielder Franco
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's recent H2H defensive record and Montreal's attacking absences give a chance for an away clean sheet, though Chicago's own defensive injuries add risk.
- Chicago kept clean sheets in last 2 H2H vs Montreal
- Montreal failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2H
- Montreal missing 3 attackers; Chicago defense missing Barroso but still solid away (7 conceded in 5 games)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCF Montreal not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring patterns in H2H and both teams' first-half stats strongly support under 1.5 goals before the break.
- Last 2 H2H first half goals: 0 and 1
- CF Montreal home first half goals: 1.1 avg; Chicago away first half goals conceded: 0.5 avg
- Chicago first half goals scored away: 0.7 avg overall, but only 0.4 in last 5 away games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While one recent H2H had high corners, the overall averages and typical low-event nature of this matchup suggest under 9.5 corners.
- CF Montreal average corners: 4.3 per game; Chicago average: 4.8
- Last H2H corners: Montreal 3, Chicago 9 (total 12), but previous meeting: Montreal 2, Chicago 3 (total 5)
- Montreal home corners: 4.6 avg; Chicago away corners: 5.2 avg
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 cards per game, and the competitive nature of this fixture often leads to multiple bookings.
- CF Montreal average yellow cards: 2.2 per game; Chicago: 2.3
- Last H2H: Montreal 3 yellows, Chicago 1; previous: Montreal 1, Chicago 2
- Montreal home fouls: 14.2 avg; Chicago away fouls: 12.9 avg
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L3-0Chicago FirevCF MontrealFeb 28, 2026MAJ

L0-2CF MontrealvChicago FireJul 19, 2025MAJ

D1-1Chicago FirevCF MontrealMar 30, 2025MAJ

W2-0CF MontrealvChicago FireSep 21, 2024MAJ

L4-3Chicago FirevCF MontrealMar 16, 2024MAJ

Chicago Fire: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	CF Montreal	12	4	1	7	18-25	13	DWLWW
4	Chicago Fire Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	12	6	2	4	23-15	20	WLLWD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

CF Montreal

D2-2Portland TimbersMay 13MAJ

W2-0Orlando City SCMay 9MAJ

W5-0Calgary Blizzard SCMay 6CAN

L1-3Atlanta United FCMay 2MAJ

W1-0New York City FCApr 25MAJ

W4-1New York Red BullsApr 18MAJ

L1-2Philadelphia UnionApr 11MAJ

L0-3New England RevolutionApr 4MAJ

L3-4FC CincinnatiMar 22MAJ

L1-2Orlando City SCMar 14MAJ

W3-0New York Red BullsMar 8MAJ

L0-3Chicago FireFeb 28MAJ

L0-5San DiegoFeb 22MAJ

L0-2Tampa Bay RowdiesFeb 14FRI

W4-2Philadelphia UnionFeb 10FRI

Chicago Fire

W3-1DC UnitedMay 13MAJ

L1-3New York Red BullsMay 9MAJ

L2-3FC CincinnatiMay 3MAJ

L1-2St. Louis CityApr 30US

W5-0Sporting Kansas CityApr 26MAJ

D3-3FC CincinnatiApr 18MAJ

W2-1Detroit CityApr 14US

W1-0Atlanta United FCApr 12MAJ

W1-0Nashville SCApr 5MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionMar 21MAJ

L1-2DC UnitedMar 15MAJ

D0-0Columbus CrewMar 8MAJ

W3-0CF MontrealFeb 28MAJ

L1-2Houston DynamoFeb 22MAJ

L3-4Portland TimbersFeb 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

CF Montreal

10 out

Attackers6/9

×#21

×#14

×#18

×#21

×#14

×#18

Midfielders2/7

×#29

Defenders2/10

×#19

Goalkeeper3

#21 F. Herbers — Lower-Body Injury

#19 B. Hidalgo — Inactive

#14 S. Ibrahim — Back Injury

#18 G. Synchuk — Injury

#29 O. Escobar — Injury

#21 F. Herbers — Lower-Body Injury

#19 B. Hidalgo — Inactive

#14 S. Ibrahim — Back Injury

#18 G. Synchuk — Injury

#29 O. Escobar — Injury

Chicago Fire

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders4/9

×#35

×#6

×#35

×#6

Defenders2/10

×#2

Goalkeeper3

#2 L. Barroso — Lower-Body Injury

A. Franco — Knee Injury

#35 S. Oregel — Head Injury

#6 A. Saletros — Head Injury

#2 L. Barroso — Lower-Body Injury

A. Franco — Knee Injury

#35 S. Oregel — Head Injury

#6 A. Saletros — Head Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Chicago Fire

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 3.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CF Montreal

Chicago Fire

Squad & Injuries

CF Montreal

Chicago Fire