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Predictions graded

Chicago Fire2Charlotte1

HT 1–1Sun 2 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–14On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 8–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect goals based on H2H history and both teams' form, but the odds for Over 2.5, BTTS, and first-half goals are too short to offer value.

Chicago's attack is in flux after selling Cuypers, and Charlotte have a strong record at Soldier Field, making the home win or draw a likely but unbettable outcome at current prices. The best actionable insight is to avoid the goal markets and wait for clearer signals on Chicago's new-look attack.

Context

Cuypers scored 13 goals in 11 matches before his transfer to Monterrey on July 23.
- Lewandowski logged 108 scoreless minutes across two matches on July 22 and July 25.
- Chicago's last two matches without Cuypers produced one goal from open play.
The MLS All-Star Game is scheduled for July 29 in Charlotte.
- Ream, Biel, and Westwood are key starters for Charlotte; Zinckernagel is Chicago's primary creator.
- Charlotte also have a Leagues Cup match on August 4, potentially influencing rotation decisions.
Charlotte won 1-0 in May 2024, 2-0 in October 2023, and 4-3 in October 2024 at Soldier Field.
- The last three H2H matches ended 3-2, 4-1, and 4-3, with both teams scoring in each.
- No draw in eight MLS meetings; Charlotte lead the series 5-3.
Chicago entered the match week fourth in the Eastern Conference with 26 points from 16 matches.
- Charlotte were sixth with 25 points, just one point behind Chicago.
- MLS seeds 1-7 go directly to Round One; seeds 8-9 enter the Wild Card.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

H2H history shows high-scoring encounters, but odds heavily favor Over 2.5, leaving no value edge.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede, but odds are slightly short, offering no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong first-half scoring records, but odds are extremely short, offering no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chicago Fire or Draw

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Chicago's strong home form (5W-0D-3L) and Charlotte's poor away record (2W-1D-4L) support a home/draw double chance, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes are moderate for both, and while H2H lacks draws, the teams' similar strength and Chicago's attacking uncertainty increase draw probability.
- Chicago home record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; Charlotte away: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses.
- Last 5 H2H: no draws, but 3 of 5 were decided by 1 goal.
- Chicago form (last 5): 3 wins, 2 losses; Charlotte form: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Both teams are closely matched in standings (Chicago 4th, 26 pts; Charlotte 6th, 25 pts).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge strongly favors Chicago, who have been solid at home, while Charlotte struggle on the road.
- Chicago home record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses (62.5% win rate).
- Charlotte away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (28.6% win rate).
- Chicago have won 3 of last 5 home matches; Charlotte have lost 4 of last 7 away.
- Chicago's home goal difference: +7; Charlotte's away goal difference: -6.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChicago Fire or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to lead at half-time, but the close matchup and H2H variability make a draw the most balanced first-half outcome.
- Chicago leading at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches; Charlotte in 47%.
- Chicago trailing at half-time in 20%; Charlotte in 33%.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Chicago leads, 1 Charlotte lead at half-time.
- Chicago's last 5 first-half results: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; Charlotte's: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is possible, the lack of draws in H2H and both teams' records make a draw/draw double unlikely, but it's included as a low-probability hedge.
- No draws in last 8 H2H meetings overall.
- Chicago home record: 0 draws in 8 matches; Charlotte away: 1 draw in 7.
- Both teams' recent form shows few draws (Chicago: 1 in last 15; Charlotte: 2 in last 15).
- First-half draws occurred in 2 of last 5 H2H, but full-time draws are rare.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows a clear pattern of high-scoring encounters, and both teams' recent form supports goals, despite Chicago's attacking transition.
- Last 3 H2H meetings all had BTTS and at least 5 goals (3-2, 4-1, 4-3).
- Chicago Fire average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Charlotte average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Chicago's last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals; Charlotte's last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' consistent scoring and conceding records make BTTS likely, even with Chicago's striker change.
- All last 3 H2H meetings saw both teams score.
- Chicago have scored in 13 of last 15 matches; Charlotte in 12 of last 15.
- Chicago conceded in 11 of last 15; Charlotte conceded in 10 of last 15.
- Chicago home record: 16 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 matches; Charlotte away: 8 scored, 14 conceded in 7.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals are common.
- Chicago average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Charlotte average 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.6 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had a first-half goal.
- Chicago's last 5 matches: 4 had first-half goals; Charlotte's last 5: 4 had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form and H2H suggest second halves are often high-scoring, though confidence is tempered by Chicago's potential attacking adjustment.
- Chicago's last 5 matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Charlotte's last 5 matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- H2H last 3 meetings: all had at least 2 second-half goals.
- Chicago average 1.0 second-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded; Charlotte average 1.2 scored, 0.9 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and recent matches have trended slightly above the 8.5 line, though not strongly.
- Chicago average 4.1 corners per match; Charlotte average 4.2.
- Chicago's last 5 matches: average total corners 9.2; Charlotte's last 5: 8.4.
- H2H last 5 meetings: average total corners 8.6.
- Chicago home matches average 8.4 total corners; Charlotte away matches average 8.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for cards, and H2H history shows frequent bookings, supporting over 3.5 cards.
- Chicago average 2.5 yellow cards per match; Charlotte average 2.1.
- Chicago's last 5 matches: 4 had over 3.5 total cards.
- Charlotte's last 5 matches: 3 had over 3.5 total cards.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 had over 3.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72.5% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; odds too short for a medium-confidence play.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W3-2Chicago FirevCharlotteJun 29, 2025MAJ

W1-4CharlottevChicago FireMay 17, 2025MAJ

L4-3CharlottevChicago FireOct 2, 2024MAJ

L0-1Chicago FirevCharlotteMay 16, 2024MAJ

L0-2Chicago FirevCharlotteOct 8, 2023MAJ

Charlotte: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Chicago Fire Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	16	8	2	6	30-22	26	LLWWW
6	Charlotte Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	17	7	4	6	28-25	25	WDWWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Chicago Fire

L1-3New York City FCJul 25MAJ

L2-3Inter MiamiJul 22MAJ

W2-1Toronto FCMay 24MAJ

W2-0CF MontrealMay 16MAJ

W3-1DC UnitedMay 13MAJ

L1-3New York Red BullsMay 9MAJ

L2-3FC CincinnatiMay 3MAJ

L1-2St. Louis CityApr 30US

W5-0Sporting Kansas CityApr 26MAJ

D3-3FC CincinnatiApr 18MAJ

W2-1Detroit CityApr 14US

W1-0Atlanta United FCApr 12MAJ

W1-0Nashville SCApr 5MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionMar 21MAJ

L1-2DC UnitedMar 15MAJ

Charlotte

W2-0New York Red BullsJul 25MAJ

D2-2Atlanta United FCJul 23MAJ

W1-0New England RevolutionMay 23MAJ

W3-1Toronto FCMay 16MAJ

L0-1New York City FCMay 13MAJ

D2-2FC CincinnatiMay 9MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionMay 2MAJ

L0-2Atlanta United FCApr 28US

L2-4Nashville SCApr 26MAJ

L1-4Orlando City SCApr 22MAJ

W2-1New York City FCApr 18MAJ

W6-0Charlotte IndependenceApr 15US

L1-2Nashville SCApr 11MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionApr 4MAJ

W6-1New York Red BullsMar 21MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Chicago Fire

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Charlotte

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3