Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Gefle IF3FC Jarfalla1

HT 1–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–0100%

Edges11–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Gefle IF are favored but overpriced at 1.65 (implied 61% vs our 45% estimate).

The match is likely to see goals and both teams scoring, but the market offers no clear value. Avoid the home win and double chance; the only marginal edge is on 'No' for either team's clean sheet, but it's too thin to act on.

Context

FC Jarfalla are 15th in Ettan Norra with 15 points from 20 matches, four points above the relegation line.
They have lost their last five league games, including a 3-0 home defeat to FBK Karlstad on 5 September and a 2-0 home loss to Assyriska FF on 29 August. This run has pushed them close to the bottom of the table, so they need points to avoid falling into the relegation zone. However, their away record is slightly better than their home form, with two wins and three draws from ten away matches.
- FC Jarfalla have lost their last five league matches (form: LLLLL).
- They lost 3-0 at home to FBK Karlstad on 5 September 2026.
- They lost 2-0 at home to Assyriska FF on 29 August 2026.
- They are 15th with 15 points, four points above the relegation line.
Gefle IF are 10th in Ettan Norra with 24 points from 20 matches.
At home, they have four wins, two draws, and three losses, scoring 13 goals and conceding 15. Their most recent home match was a 2-0 win over Umeå FC on 15 August, showing they can control games at their own ground. However, their overall form is mixed, with a 1-0 away loss to Sollentuna on 5 September, so they are not consistently dominant.
- Gefle IF have a home record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 9 matches.
- They beat Umeå FC 2-0 at home on 15 August 2026.
- They lost 1-0 away to Sollentuna on 5 September 2026.
Järfälla sit 15th in the Ettan Norra table after 20 matches, level on points with 14th-placed Piteå but with a worse goal difference, and are in the automatic relegation zone with 10 rounds remaining.
Their five consecutive defeats and relegation position give them a direct incentive to chase points at Gefle, which may lead to a more risk-tolerant approach, especially late in the match if the score is level. However, no reliable team-news source has established a specific selection or tactical change for this match, so the practical effect on their setup remains uncertain.
- The table published on 11 September lists Järfälla 15th after 20 matches, with 15 points and a -21 goal difference.
- Piteå, in 14th, also have 15 points but a -16 goal difference.
- Positions 14–16 are marked as relegation places, with 10 rounds remaining.
- Järfälla's displayed form is five consecutive defeats.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 00:07 · Europe/BucharestSverigesfotboll.se Ettan tablesverigesfotboll.se · 11 Sep 2026
The teams met once this season in Ettan Norra.
On 23 May 2026, FC Jarfalla won 4-0 at home against Gefle IF, with a 1-0 lead at half-time. That result suggests FC Jarfalla can be effective against Gefle IF, but it was played at their own ground and their current form is much worse. Gefle IF have since improved at home, so the context is different for this match.
- FC Jarfalla beat Gefle IF 4-0 at home on 23 May 2026.
- FC Jarfalla led 1-0 at half-time in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Gefle IF

1.64fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 61%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Gefle IF, but their home record and recent form do not justify a 61% implied probability, making the home win overpriced.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gefle IF or Draw

1.21fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83%

−13.0ppshort

The double chance price implies an 83% probability, but our estimate of 70% suggests the market is overvaluing the home side's safety net.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the previous meeting produced four goals, making over 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistently found the net and conceded on their respective home/away splits, suggesting a strong chance of both scoring.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The combined first-half scoring rates indicate a high probability of at least one goal before the break, especially with FC Jarfalla's leaky first-half defense.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gefle IF to score

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

FC Jarfalla's away defense is leaky, and Gefle IF have a strong scoring record at home, making an away clean sheet very unlikely.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Gefle IF's home scoring rate and FC Jarfalla's away defensive frailty support a strong chance of the hosts scoring at least twice.

Home Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Gefle IF's poor home defensive record and FC Jarfalla's consistent away scoring make a home win to nil unlikely.

Away Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

FC Jarfalla's away defense rarely keeps clean sheets, and Gefle IF's home scoring record is strong, making an away win to nil highly unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gefle IF's stronger home form and FC Jarfalla's five-match losing streak give the hosts a clear edge, though their overall inconsistency keeps confidence at medium.
- Gefle IF home record: 4W 2D 3L, 13 goals for, 15 against in 9 home matches
- FC Jarfalla away record: 2W 3D 5L, 14 goals for, 18 against in 10 away matches
- Gefle IF last 5 form: LDWWL (7 points), FC Jarfalla last 5 form: LLLLL (0 points)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGefle IFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle IF's home advantage and FC Jarfalla's poor away form make a home win or draw the most likely outcome, supported by the hosts' better recent results.
- Gefle IF home record: 4W 2D 3L, 13 goals for, 15 against in 9 home matches
- FC Jarfalla away record: 2W 3D 5L, 14 goals for, 18 against in 10 away matches
- Gefle IF last 5 form: LDWWL (7 points), FC Jarfalla last 5 form: LLLLL (0 points)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGefle IF or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong tendency to lead at half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half result despite the overall match favoring Gefle IF.
- Gefle IF first-half record: 20% leading, 67% trailing at half-time
- FC Jarfalla first-half record: 13% leading, 47% trailing at half-time
- Both teams often trail at half-time, suggesting a balanced first half
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Gefle IF win is plausible given their home strength and FC Jarfalla's second-half vulnerabilities, though the probability remains low.
- Gefle IF often trails at half-time (67%) but has a positive home record
- FC Jarfalla often trails at half-time (47%) and has a poor away record
- Gefle IF has shown ability to come back in matches (e.g., 2-1 win after trailing vs Assyriska)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Gefle IFEstimated chance25%

Goals10 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the previous meeting produced four goals, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Gefle IF home matches average 3.1 total goals (13 for, 15 against in 9 games)
- FC Jarfalla away matches average 3.2 total goals (14 for, 18 against in 10 games)
- Last H2H: Järfälla 4-0 Gefle IF (4 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net and conceded on their respective home/away splits, suggesting a strong chance of both scoring.
- Gefle IF scored in 7 of 9 home matches (78%)
- FC Jarfalla scored in 7 of 10 away matches (70%)
- Gefle IF conceded in 7 of 9 home matches (78%), FC Jarfalla conceded in 8 of 10 away matches (80%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates indicate a high probability of at least one goal before the break, especially with FC Jarfalla's leaky first-half defense.
- Gefle IF first-half goals: 0.3 per match average, conceded 0.8 per match
- FC Jarfalla first-half goals: 0.6 per match average, conceded 1.3 per match
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.5 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, but the overall high-scoring trend in this matchup makes over 1.5 second-half goals a coin-flip proposition.
- Gefle IF average second-half goals: 0.7 per match (total 1.0 - first-half 0.3)
- FC Jarfalla average second-half goals: 0.5 per match (total 1.1 - first-half 0.6)
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.2 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle IF's home defensive record is poor, and FC Jarfalla have consistently scored away, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Gefle IF conceded in 7 of 9 home matches (78%)
- FC Jarfalla scored in 7 of 10 away matches (70%)
- Gefle IF average goals conceded at home: 1.67 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Jarfalla to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jarfalla's away defense is leaky, and Gefle IF have a strong scoring record at home, making an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- FC Jarfalla conceded in 8 of 10 away matches (80%)
- Gefle IF scored in 7 of 9 home matches (78%)
- FC Jarfalla average goals conceded away: 1.8 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGefle IF to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle IF's home scoring rate and FC Jarfalla's away defensive frailty support a strong chance of the hosts scoring at least twice.
- Gefle IF average 1.44 goals per home match
- Gefle IF scored 2+ goals in 5 of 9 home matches (56%)
- FC Jarfalla concede 1.8 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGefle IF over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jarfalla's away scoring record and Gefle IF's home defensive weaknesses make it likely the visitors will score at least once.
- FC Jarfalla average 1.4 goals per away match
- FC Jarfalla scored in 7 of 10 away matches (70%)
- Gefle IF concede 1.67 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Jarfalla over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle IF's poor home defensive record and FC Jarfalla's consistent away scoring make a home win to nil unlikely.
- Gefle IF kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 9 home matches (22%)
- FC Jarfalla failed to score in only 3 of 10 away matches (30%)
- Gefle IF's home clean sheet rate is low
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jarfalla's away defense rarely keeps clean sheets, and Gefle IF's home scoring record is strong, making an away win to nil highly unlikely.
- FC Jarfalla kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 10 away matches (20%)
- Gefle IF failed to score in only 2 of 9 home matches (22%)
- FC Jarfalla's away clean sheet rate is very low
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

Prediction history

Gefle IF has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals in recent matches

Gefle IF has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4 recent predictions. The average estimated probability was 63%, but only 25% of matches went over. Notably, the only fulfilled prediction came at home, while both away matches stayed under.

Recent evidence for Gefle IF4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra