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Predictions graded

FC Augsburg2Bayer Leverkusen2

HT 0–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–6–145%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 8–30On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 2–14

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 05:50 · Europe/Bucharest

The market heavily favours Leverkusen and high-scoring outcomes, but our model sees no value in the away win (42% vs 58% implied), over 2.5 goals (62% vs 72.5%), or BTTS (58% vs 69.4%).

The only marginal edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91 (+3 points), but it's a low-confidence play. Avoid the short-priced favourites and consider the second-half goals market only with caution.

Context

FC Augsburg sit first in the Bundesliga with six points from two matches.
They beat Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 away on 2026-09-06 and FC Schalke 04 3-0 at home on 2026-08-30. Those wins show they can score and defend well, but the sample is small and this is a tougher opponent.
- FC Augsburg are 1st with 6 points from 2 matches.
- They won 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on 2026-09-06.
- They won 3-0 at home against FC Schalke 04 on 2026-08-30.
Bayer Leverkusen are 7th with 3 points from two matches.
They lost 2-3 at SV Elversberg on 2026-08-29 despite having 67% possession. That away defeat suggests they can be vulnerable when opponents sit deep, but they did win 4-0 at home against Union Berlin on 2026-09-05.
- Bayer Leverkusen lost 2-3 at SV Elversberg on 2026-08-29.
- They won 4-0 at home against Union Berlin on 2026-09-05.
- Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.
FC Augsburg attacker Anton Kade stopped training early on 2 September and was sidelined with a muscular injury for the Frankfurt match, having started 3 of the last 5 available fixtures.
His status for the Leverkusen match remains unresolved, so Augsburg may again need to adjust their attacking lineup. Without a newer update, the exact replacement and tactical shift are uncertain.
- FC Augsburg said Kade stopped training early on 2 September and was a doubt for the Frankfurt match.
- Bundesliga match coverage stated that Augsburg were forced into one change at Frankfurt because Kade was sidelined with a muscular injury on 6 September.
- A. Kade started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 05:48 · Europe/BucharestFC Augsburg pre-Frankfurt updatewww.fcaugsburg.de · 4 Sep 2026Bundesliga Frankfurt-Augsburg match coveragewww.bundesliga.com · 6 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times in the Bundesliga since May 2024.
On 2026-04-18, Augsburg won 2-1 at Leverkusen. However, Leverkusen won the previous home meeting 2-0 in December 2025, so the head-to-head is mixed and neither side has a clear edge.
- FC Augsburg won 2-1 at Bayer Leverkusen on 2026-04-18.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 2-0 at home against FC Augsburg on 2025-12-06.
- In the last five meetings, each team has won twice and one match was drawn.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bayer Leverkusen

1.72fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

The odds imply a 58% chance for Leverkusen, but our model only gives them 42%, so the price offers no value despite the predictor's medium confidence.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Draw or Leverkusen at 80% implied, but our estimate is only 68%, leaving no cushion for the medium-confidence prediction.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring recent form, but the odds offer no value as the implied probability exceeds our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's superior attacking output and recent H2H edge give them a slight advantage, though Augsburg's strong start and home form keep this close.
- Leverkusen average 2.7 goals per game over last 15 matches, Augsburg concede 1.6 per game.
- Leverkusen have won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 2-1 away in April 2026.
- Augsburg's home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, but only 3 goals scored at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's H2H dominance and Augsburg's occasional home draws make a Leverkusen win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Leverkusen have not lost to Augsburg in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Augsburg have drawn 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Leverkusen's away record this season: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, but they scored 2 goals in that loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, and H2H first halves have been evenly matched, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Augsburg led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- Leverkusen led at half-time in 47% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half results were mixed with 2 draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's stronger second-half scoring and overall quality give them a slight edge to win the second half.
- Leverkusen average 1.6 second-half goals per game, Augsburg average 1.5.
- Leverkusen have a better second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Leverkusen's attacking depth may exploit Augsburg's defensive lapses late in games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Leverkusen win is a plausible but low-probability scenario given the teams' profiles.
- Leverkusen have come from behind or drawn at half-time in several matches.
- Augsburg have drawn at half-time in 27% of matches.
- H2H matches have seen second-half turnarounds.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring recent form, and while H2H has been slightly lower, the attacking trends support over 2.5 goals.
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 4.4 total goals per game (2.8 scored + 1.6 conceded).
- Leverkusen's last 15 matches average 3.8 total goals per game (2.7 scored + 1.1 conceded).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 2, 2, 2, and 3 goals, averaging 2.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and recent H2H meetings often see both sides find the net.
- Augsburg have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Leverkusen have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the line of 1.5 is borderline given the averages.
- Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals per game, Leverkusen average 1.1.
- Augsburg concede 0.9 first-half goals per game, Leverkusen concede 0.6.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.4 per game across both teams.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring for both teams, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Augsburg average 1.5 second-half goals per game (2.8 total - 1.3 first half).
- Leverkusen average 1.6 second-half goals per game (2.7 total - 1.1 first half).
- Both teams have scored in the second half in most recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, but the line of 9.5 is close to the combined average, making this a coin flip.
- Augsburg average 5.4 corners per game, Leverkusen average 5.9.
- Combined average corners per game is 11.3.
- Recent H2H matches have had varying corner counts, but both teams attack wide.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average suggests over 9.5 is likely, but variance in shot accuracy makes this a moderate confidence pick.
- Augsburg average 6.4 shots on target per game, Leverkusen average 6.0.
- Combined average shots on target is 12.4 per game.
- Both teams have high shot volumes in recent matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderpushOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is slightly below the line, but derby-like intensity could lead to more cards.
- Augsburg average 1.9 yellow cards per game, Leverkusen average 1.4.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.3 per game.
- Referee tendencies and match intensity could push cards higher.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FC Augsburg has been highly reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

FC Augsburg has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent Over 2.5 goals projections, a strong 80% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 63.2%, with an expected 3.2 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. Matched predictions averaged 64.5% probability, while the single miss was at 58%, indicating higher-confidence projections were more accurate. The current prediction of 62% sits within the historical range of 58–72%.

Recent evidence for FC Augsburg5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 May·Bundesliga