FC Andorra1Real Sociedad B3

HT 0–3Sat 12 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 23–15On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest

The market overprices FC Andorra (1.50) and the double chance (1.15) given their poor form and Real Sociedad B's away resilience.

The only positive edge is the first-half draw at 2.50 (model 45% vs implied 40%), while goals markets like Over 2.5 and Over 0.5 first-half goals are best avoided.

Context

FC Andorra are 17th in the 22-team Segunda División with 3 points from 4 matches, only ahead of the relegation zone on goal difference.
They have lost three straight league games, including a 0-1 home defeat to Eibar on 30 August and a 0-1 away loss to Valladolid on 5 September. Their only win came at home against bottom side AD Ceuta FC, 5-1 on 15 August. This poor run puts pressure on them to get a result at home, where they have one win and one loss so far.
- FC Andorra are 17th with 3 points from 4 matches, level on points with 19th-placed Cordoba.
- They lost 0-1 at home to Eibar on 30 August and 0-1 away to Valladolid on 5 September.
- Their only league win was 5-1 at home to AD Ceuta FC on 15 August.
Real Sociedad B are 14th with 5 points from 4 matches, with their away record showing 1 win and 1 draw.
They won 2-1 at Albacete on 22 August and drew 2-2 at Burgos on 31 August. Their away performances have been solid, scoring 4 goals in 2 games. This away strength could trouble an Andorra team that has lost both away matches but is playing at home here.
- Real Sociedad B won 2-1 at Albacete on 22 August.
- They drew 2-2 at Burgos on 31 August.
- They have 4 points from 2 away matches.
FC Andorra head coach Carles Manso criticised his team's first half at Valladolid and highlighted a second-half structural change that created clear chances.
The staff identified the opening phase as a problem and changed shape after half-time in their most recent match. That adjustment produced several clear chances, so Andorra may look to apply a similar structure earlier against Real Sociedad B, though the visitors' setup will differ from Valladolid's.
- On 7 September, Manso said Andorra could not repeat what happened in the first 45 minutes at Valladolid.
- The report says Andorra changed structure after half-time to use the spaces available and created several clear chances.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:34 · Europe/BucharestRàdio SER Principat d'Andorracadenaser.com · 7 Sep 2026
The teams have met four times since October 2024, with each side winning once and two draws.
In the most recent match on 7 February 2026, Real Sociedad B won 2-1 at FC Andorra. However, in the previous meeting on 11 October 2025, Real Sociedad B won 3-0 at home. The pattern shows the home team has won the last three encounters, which could give FC Andorra some hope despite their poor form.
- Real Sociedad B won 2-1 at FC Andorra on 7 February 2026.
- Real Sociedad B won 3-0 at home against FC Andorra on 11 October 2025.
- FC Andorra won 2-1 at home against Real Sociedad B on 13 April 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Andorra

1.50fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Our estimate is far below the implied probability, so this is not a value edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Andorra's strong possession stats support a narrow edge, but poor recent form and H2H record temper confidence.
- FC Andorra home record this season: 1W 0D 1L, 5 goals scored, 2 conceded in 2 home matches.
- Real Sociedad B away record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 4 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 away matches.
- FC Andorra average possession 64.7% overall, indicating control but recent form LLLW with three consecutive league defeats.
- H2H last 5: FC Andorra 1W, Real Sociedad B 2W, 2D; most recent meeting Real Sociedad B won 2-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC AndorraEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining home advantage with Andorra's ability to avoid defeat in most recent H2H meetings supports a double chance.
- FC Andorra home record: 1W 0D 1L, with 5 goals scored in 2 home games.
- Real Sociedad B away record: 1W 1D 0L, unbeaten away this season.
- H2H: FC Andorra have avoided defeat in 3 of last 5 meetings (1W, 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Andorra or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and high draw percentages at half-time suggest a level first half is most likely.
- FC Andorra leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 27%, drawing in 46%.
- Real Sociedad B leading at half-time in 20%, trailing in 40%, drawing in 40%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates (0.3 and 0.4 goals scored).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Andorra's home attacking output and potential tactical adjustments after half-time give them a slight edge in the second period.
- FC Andorra average 0.9 second-half goals scored vs 1.0 conceded.
- Real Sociedad B average 0.7 second-half goals scored vs 0.7 conceded.
- Andorra's home matches have seen them score 5 goals in 2 games, often in second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFC AndorraEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Andorra win is plausible given their home strength and second-half improvement.
- FC Andorra draw at half-time in 46% of matches.
- FC Andorra win full-time in 25% of matches overall, but 50% at home.
- Real Sociedad B draw at half-time in 40% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / FC AndorraEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show moderate scoring and conceding rates, with recent matches often featuring goals from both sides.
- FC Andorra average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.
- Real Sociedad B average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams: 2.5 (Andorra) and 2.5 (Real Sociedad B).
- Both teams have scored in 3 of Andorra's last 5 league matches and 3 of Real Sociedad B's last 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding records, making BTTS likely.
- FC Andorra have scored in 3 of last 5 league matches and conceded in 4 of last 5.
- Real Sociedad B have scored in 4 of last 5 league matches and conceded in 4 of last 5.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad B's higher first-half concession rate increases the chance of an early goal.
- FC Andorra average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match.
- Real Sociedad B average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Combined first-half goal average: 0.6 for Andorra matches, 1.1 for Real Sociedad B matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals as both teams push for results, but confidence is low due to variability.
- FC Andorra average 0.9 second-half goals scored (total 1.2 - 0.3 first half) and 1.0 conceded (1.3 - 0.3).
- Real Sociedad B average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.1 - 0.4) and 0.7 conceded (1.4 - 0.7).
- Combined second-half average: 1.6 goals for Andorra matches, 1.4 for Real Sociedad B matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad B's high corner involvement could push the total over, but Andorra's low corner numbers make this uncertain.
- FC Andorra average 3 corners per match, opponent corners 2.5 (combined 5.5).
- Real Sociedad B average 4.8 corners per match, opponent corners 5.0 (combined 9.8).
- Real Sociedad B matches average nearly 10 corners, but Andorra's low corner count drags the combined average down.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot-on-target totals are close to the line, with Andorra's high shot volume potentially pushing it over.
- FC Andorra average 4.9 shots on target per match, opponent 3.5 (combined 8.4).
- Real Sociedad B average 4.0 shots on target per match, opponent 4.0 (combined 8.0).
- Both teams' combined averages are near the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Andorra's disciplinary record suggests a higher card count, but Real Sociedad B's lower numbers make this a close call.
- FC Andorra average 3.3 yellow cards per match, opponent 2.0 (combined 5.3).
- Real Sociedad B average 2.0 yellow cards per match, opponent 2.0 (combined 4.0).
- Andorra's high foul count (16 per match) increases card likelihood.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance48%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 67% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FC Andorra has been highly reliable when projected to receive over 4.5 cards

FC Andorra's over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 3 of 4 recent matches. The current probability of 48% is below the historical range of 55-62%, suggesting the market may be underestimating the likelihood. In home matches, both projections were fulfilled, while away matches split 1-1.

Recent evidence for FC Andorra4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 May·La Liga 2