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Predictions graded

Huesca1Real Sociedad B2

HT 0–1Mon 11 May 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 19–16On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 9–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 May 2026, 20:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Huesca's strong home form and Real Sociedad B's dire away record make the hosts clear favorites to avoid defeat, but the value lies in the first-half draw and over 4.5 cards.

Expect a tense, low-scoring first half before the game opens up, with Huesca likely to edge the second period in a match where discipline could be decisive.

Context

Huesca home record this season: 7W-7D-5L, with only one loss in the last ten at El Alcoraz.
- Real Sociedad B away record: 4W-3D-12L, winless in eight of their last nine on the road.
- Huesca have kept two clean sheets in their last five home matches, showing defensive improvement.
Real Sociedad B average 3.8 yellows per game over their last 15 matches, with 5+ cards in four of their last ten.
- In their last five away league games, they committed 12, 25, 11, 20, and 15 fouls.
- Huesca draw 2.5 yellows per game at home, and opponents average 2.3, so the total often pushes past 4.5.
Cadena SER reported that Huesca are motivated to match or overturn the 2-0 first-leg loss for goal-difference reasons.
- The reverse fixture saw Real Sociedad B win 2-0 at home, giving them a psychological edge in the head-to-head.
- Huesca have historically led this matchup, but the recent loss adds tension to this direct clash.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Huesca or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Huesca's 74% home unbeaten rate and Real Sociedad B's 79% away non-win rate strongly support Huesca avoiding defeat.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Huesca

1.82fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 55%

0.0ppshort

Huesca's strong home form (only 5 losses) contrasts with Real Sociedad B's poor away record (12 losses), giving Huesca a structural edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals scored, and combined first-half goals per match sit well below 1.5, suggesting a cautious start in this tense relegation encounter.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.15fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Both teams struggle to score early (0.5 first-half goals each), and with only 1.1 and 1.3 total first-half goals per match respectively, the probability of both teams finding the net before halftime is low.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huesca's strong home form (only 5 losses all season) contrasts with Real Sociedad B's poor away record (12 losses in 19), giving Huesca a clear structural home/away edge in this relegation six-pointer.
- Huesca home record: 7W-7D-5L, 22GF/21GA in 19 matches (Segunda División 2025/26).
- Real Sociedad B away record: 4W-3D-12L, 20GF/30GA in 19 matches (Segunda División 2025/26).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: W-D-L-D-W (3W-2D-0L in last 5 at home, only 1 loss in last 10 home games).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: D-L-D-L-W (1W-2D-2L, only 1 win in last 8 away games).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHuescaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Huesca's resilient home form (74% unbeaten) with Real Sociedad B's dreadful away performances (79% non-win) strongly supports Huesca avoiding defeat in this high-stakes relegation clash.
- Huesca home record: 14 matches without defeat out of 19 (7W-7D-5L).
- Real Sociedad B away record: 15 matches without win out of 19 (4W-3D-12L).
- Huesca last 10 home matches: only 1 loss (5W-4D-1L).
- Real Sociedad B last 8 away matches: only 1 win (1W-3D-4L).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHuesca or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at halftime (Huesca 20%, Real Sociedad B 13%), and the high draw rate at the break (53% and 40%) reflects the cautious, low-scoring first halves typical of relegation-pressure matches.
- Huesca half-time results (last 15): 3W-7D-5L (20% leading, 27% trailing, 53% drawing).
- Real Sociedad B half-time results (last 15): 2W-6D-7L (13% leading, 33% trailing, 40% drawing).
- Huesca home half-time leads: only 20% overall, with 53% draws.
- Real Sociedad B away half-time leads: only 13% overall, with 40% draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huesca's home momentum and desperation should see them edge the second half, but Real Sociedad B's recent defensive solidity away from home (only 1 goal conceded in last 5 away second halves) makes this a low-confidence call.
- Huesca second-half performance at home: often stronger after break (e.g., 2-0 win vs AD Ceuta after 0-0 HT).
- Real Sociedad B second-half away fragility: conceded 60% of away goals after HT (18 of 30).
- Huesca motivation: need to push for winner in relegation six-pointer, especially to avenge 2-0 first-leg loss.
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away second halves: 0 goals scored, 1 conceded (very tight, but small sample).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableHuescaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huesca's tendency to grind out wins after level first halves at home (21% occurrence) aligns with the expected match flow, but Real Sociedad B's recent away resilience lowers the probability, making this a speculative but plausible outcome.
- Huesca home HT-FT patterns: 4 of 19 home matches were draw at HT, win at FT (21%).
- Real Sociedad B away HT-FT patterns: 2 of 19 away matches were draw at HT, lose at FT (11%).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: 2 were draw at HT, win at FT (vs Zaragoza 1-0, vs Cadiz 1-0).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: 0 were draw at HT, lose at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/HuescaEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite recent low-scoring trends, the season-long averages (2.26 and 2.63 goals per game) and the open, must-win nature of this relegation battle increase the likelihood of at least 3 goals, especially if Huesca push to overturn the H2H goal difference.
- Huesca home matches: 43 goals in 19 games (2.26 goals per game average).
- Real Sociedad B away matches: 50 goals in 19 games (2.63 goals per game average).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: 2, 1, 1, 0, 1 goals scored (avg 1.0), but conceded 4, 1, 1, 0, 0 (avg 1.2).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: 0, 0, 0, 2, 2 goals scored (avg 0.8), conceded 0, 1, 0, 0, 0 (avg 0.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Season-long home/away BTTS rates hover around 50%, and the tactical openness expected in a relegation six-pointer (Huesca needing goals, Real Sociedad B capable on the counter) makes both teams scoring a reasonable outcome despite recent away blanks for the visitors.
- Huesca home matches: both teams scored in 10 of 19 (53%).
- Real Sociedad B away matches: both teams scored in 9 of 19 (47%).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5 (40%).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: both teams scored in 0 of 5 (0%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals scored, and combined first-half goals per match (1.1 for Huesca, 1.3 for Real Sociedad B) sit well below 1.5, suggesting a cautious start in this tense relegation encounter.
- Huesca first-half goals average: 0.5 per game (last 15 matches).
- Real Sociedad B first-half goals average: 0.5 per game (last 15 matches).
- Huesca first-half goals conceded average: 0.6 per game.
- Real Sociedad B first-half goals conceded average: 0.8 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of goals for both teams come after halftime (Huesca 58%, Real Sociedad B 55%), and with the match likely opening up as urgency increases, the second half is primed for at least 2 goals.
- Huesca second-half goals: 0.7 per game (1.2 total - 0.5 first half).
- Real Sociedad B second-half goals: 0.6 per game (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- Huesca second-half goals conceded: 1.2 per game (1.8 total - 0.6 first half).
- Real Sociedad B second-half goals conceded: 0.6 per game (1.4 total - 0.8 first half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score early (0.5 first-half goals each), and with only 1.1 and 1.3 total first-half goals per match respectively, the probability of both teams finding the net before halftime is low.
- Huesca first-half goals scored: 0.5 per game, conceded: 0.6 per game.
- Real Sociedad B first-half goals scored: 0.5 per game, conceded: 0.8 per game.
- Huesca last 5 home first halves: scored in 2, conceded in 1.
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away first halves: scored in 0, conceded in 1.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Real Sociedad B's recent away goal drought, Huesca's low clean sheet rate at home (26%) and the visitors' desperation to avoid relegation suggest Huesca are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Huesca home clean sheets: 5 in 19 matches (26%).
- Real Sociedad B away failed to score: 7 in 19 matches (37%).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: 2 clean sheets (vs Zaragoza, Cadiz).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: failed to score in 4 (80%).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReal Sociedad B to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad B's recent away defensive solidity (4 clean sheets in last 5) is striking, but Huesca's consistent home scoring (79% of home games with a goal) makes an away clean sheet a low-probability outcome.
- Real Sociedad B away clean sheets: 5 in 19 matches (26%).
- Huesca home failed to score: 4 in 19 matches (21%).
- Real Sociedad B last 5 away matches: 4 clean sheets (vs Burgos 0-0, Valladolid 0-1, AD Ceuta 0-0, Sporting Gijon 0-1).
- Huesca last 5 home matches: failed to score in 1 (vs Albacete 0-0).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHuesca not to scoreEstimated chance35%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages hover around 8.4-8.5, and the open, attacking nature of a must-win game could push the total slightly over, but the lack of a strong corner trend (both teams average ~4) keeps confidence low.
- Huesca home corners average: 4.4 per game (last 15 matches).
- Real Sociedad B away corners average: 4.0 per game (last 15 matches).
- Huesca home matches: average total corners 8.4 (4.4 + 4.0 opponent).
- Real Sociedad B away matches: average total corners 8.0 (4.0 + 4.0 opponent).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad B's high disciplinary issues (3.8 yellows/game) combined with the intense, physical nature of a relegation six-pointer (Huesca 2.5 yellows/game) make over 4.5 cards a strong likelihood, supported by season-long averages.
- Huesca yellow cards average: 2.5 per game (last 15 matches).
- Real Sociedad B yellow cards average: 3.8 per game (last 15 matches).
- Huesca home matches: 2.5 yellows per game, opponents 2.3 -> total 4.8.
- Real Sociedad B away matches: 3.8 yellows per game, opponents 2.5 -> total 6.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 1W

L2-0Real Sociedad IIvHuescaNov 5, 2025SEG

W3-2HuescavReal Sociedad IIMay 21, 2022SEG

W0-2Real Sociedad IIvHuescaSep 24, 2021SEG

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Huesca Relegation	38	9	9	20	39-59	36	LWLDL
17	Real Sociedad B	38	11	9	18	46-54	42	DLLDL

6pt gap between teamsHuesca in relegation zone

Recent Form

Huesca

L2-4Racing SantanderMay 3SEG

W1-0ZaragozaApr 26SEG

L1-2EibarApr 19SEG

D1-1Deportivo La CorunaApr 12SEG

L1-2Las PalmasApr 5SEG

D1-1Cultural LeonesaApr 1SEG

L2-4Granada CFMar 28SEG

L1-3AlmeriaMar 20SEG

L3-5MalagaMar 15SEG

D0-0AlbaceteMar 7SEG

L0-1ValladolidFeb 28SEG

L1-2MirandesFeb 21SEG

W2-0AD Ceuta FCFeb 15SEG

L1-2Sporting GijonFeb 8SEG

W1-0CadizFeb 1SEG

Real Sociedad B

D0-0BurgosMay 3SEG

L0-2Borussia Dortmund IIApr 29PRE

L0-1ValladolidApr 25SEG

L1-3Racing SantanderApr 17SEG

D0-0AD Ceuta FCApr 10SEG

L0-1Sporting GijonApr 6SEG

L0-1EibarApr 2SEG

L1-5AlmeriaMar 29SEG

L0-2Granada CFMar 22SEG

W3-0Crystal Palace U21Mar 18PRE

W2-0CordobaMar 15SEG

W4-2CastellónMar 7SEG

L2-3Deportivo La CorunaMar 1SEG

W2-0CadizFeb 23SEG

W2-1MalagaFeb 16SEG

Squad & Injuries

Huesca

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Real Sociedad B

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Over 4.5

Huesca or Draw

Huesca

Under 1.5

No

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Huesca

Real Sociedad B

Squad & Injuries

Huesca

Real Sociedad B