AC Boise2New York Cosmos1

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–4–167%

Edges8–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 16:23 · Europe/Bucharest

AC Boise are favoured at home, but the odds offer no value on the win or double chance.

The only slight edge is on both teams to score at 1.57, while 'No' on away clean sheet and away win to nil are safe but low-return options.

Context

AC Boise are fifth in USL League One with 41 points from 24 matches, inside the playoff positions.
Their recent run includes a 2-0 win at Naples on 5 September and a 3-2 win at Chattanooga Red Wolves on 29 August. This form suggests they are playing with confidence and scoring regularly, which could put pressure on a New York Cosmos side that has struggled defensively.
- AC Boise won 2-0 at Naples on 5 September 2026.
- AC Boise won 3-2 at Chattanooga Red Wolves on 29 August 2026.
- AC Boise drew 2-2 at One Knoxville on 22 August 2026.
New York Cosmos are 16th in USL League One with 22 points from 24 matches, only three points above the relegation line.
Their away record shows two wins, two draws, and nine losses, with 32 goals conceded in those 13 matches. That defensive weakness away from home is a major concern against an AC Boise side that has scored in most recent games.
- New York Cosmos have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 9 of 13 away league matches.
- New York Cosmos have conceded 32 goals in those 13 away matches.
The teams met once this season in USL League One.
AC Boise won 2-1 at New York Cosmos on 25 July 2026. That result shows AC Boise can get a result against this opponent, though it was away from home and the teams have changed since then.
- AC Boise won 2-1 at New York Cosmos on 25 July 2026.
New York Cosmos forward L. Jawneh has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups and played as the lone striker in the 4-2-3-1 at Fort Wayne on September 5.
Jawneh scored twice in that match and added another goal in the previous game, making his movement and finishing in the penalty area a concrete defensive-planning factor for Boise. His recent selection as the central striker gives the Cosmos a defined reference point in attack.
- USL League One named Jawneh its Week 27 Player of the Week on September 8 after three goals across matches against Sarasota Paradise and Fort Wayne FC.
- New York's official Fort Wayne report lists Jawneh as the lone striker and records his goals in the 44th and 71st minutes.
- L. Jawneh started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 16:21 · Europe/BucharestUSL League One Team of the Week – Week 27www.uslleagueone.com · 8 Sep 2026Cosmos earn 4-2 road win over Fort Wayne FCwww.nycosmos.com · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's strong home form and New York Cosmos' poor away record, combined with the recent H2H win, support a home victory.
- AC Boise home record: 7W 2D 3L, 18 goals for, 12 against in 12 matches
- New York Cosmos away record: 2W 2D 9L, 17 goals for, 32 against in 13 matches
- AC Boise last 5 form: WWDWD; New York Cosmos last 5: WLDDW
- H2H last meeting: AC Boise won 2-1 away on 2026-07-25
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAC BoiseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AC Boise rarely lose at home while New York Cosmos rarely win away, making the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- AC Boise home unbeaten rate: 9/12 (75%)
- New York Cosmos away win rate: 2/13 (15%)
- AC Boise last 5 home matches: 3W 1D 1L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAC Boise or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's superior first-half performance and New York Cosmos' tendency to trail at the break give the home side an edge.
- AC Boise led at halftime in 33% of matches
- New York Cosmos trailed at halftime in 47% of matches
- AC Boise first-half goal difference: +0.3 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAC BoiseEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's overall home strength and slightly better second-half scoring support a second-half win.
- AC Boise second-half goal difference: +0.2 per match
- New York Cosmos second-half goal difference: -0.1 per match
- AC Boise won 7 of 12 home matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerpushAC BoiseEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of AC Boise's first-half lead rate and overall win rate makes the HT/FT double plausible but not highly likely.
- AC Boise led at halftime in 33% of matches
- AC Boise won 50% of matches overall
- New York Cosmos trailed at halftime in 47% and lost 58% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAC Boise/AC BoiseEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend toward high-scoring affairs, especially New York Cosmos' leaky away defense.
- AC Boise average total goals per match: 2.9 (1.7 for, 1.2 against)
- New York Cosmos average total goals per match: 2.8 (1.1 for, 1.7 against)
- New York Cosmos away matches average 3.8 total goals (17 for, 32 against in 13)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and New York Cosmos' defensive frailty increases the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- AC Boise scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- New York Cosmos scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- New York Cosmos conceded in 12 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is likely.
- AC Boise average first-half goals: 0.7 for, 0.4 against
- New York Cosmos average first-half goals: 0.3 for, 0.8 against
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, pushing the total above 1.5 goals after the break.
- AC Boise average second-half goals: 1.0 for, 0.8 against
- New York Cosmos average second-half goals: 0.8 for, 0.9 against
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.8 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's decent home defense and New York Cosmos' occasional scoring droughts give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- AC Boise kept clean sheets in 4 of 15 recent matches
- New York Cosmos failed to score in 4 of 15 recent matches
- AC Boise home goals against average: 1.0 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNew York Cosmos not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos' poor away defensive record and AC Boise's consistent scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- New York Cosmos kept clean sheets in only 3 of 15 recent matches
- AC Boise scored in 13 of 15 recent matches
- New York Cosmos away goals against average: 2.5 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAC Boise to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's ability to win at home combined with New York Cosmos' occasional scoring failures gives a low but real chance of a win to nil.
- AC Boise won 7 home matches, with 3 clean sheets
- New York Cosmos failed to score in 4 of 15 matches
- AC Boise home goals against average: 1.0
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos' poor away form and AC Boise's scoring consistency make an away win to nil highly improbable.
- New York Cosmos won only 2 away matches, with 1 clean sheet
- AC Boise scored in 13 of 15 recent matches
- New York Cosmos away goals against average: 2.5
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance90%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

AC Boise has been highly reliable when projected to win

AC Boise has fulfilled 5 of 6 win predictions, a strong recent record. The average estimated probability was 47.8%, yet they won 83% of those matches, exceeding the expected 2.9 wins. Their only miss came away at Greenville Triumph, while all four home win predictions were correct.

Recent evidence for AC Boise6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·USL League One