One Knoxville SC0FC Naples0

HT 0–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 16:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Knoxville are favorites at home, but the odds offer no value on the win or double chance.

The best betting edges are Over 2.5 total goals (+3 points) and Over 1.5 second-half goals (+7 points), while the first-half Over 0.5 goals market is a clear avoid at 1.30.

Context

FC Naples sits 11th in USL League One with 26 points from 24 matches. Their away record is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses.
On the road, FC Naples has conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game and scored only 1.0 per game. Recent away results include a 4-0 loss at Greenville Triumph on August 29 and a 3-1 loss at Westchester SC on August 15. One Knoxville has been solid at home with 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, so this away weakness is likely to be tested again.
- FC Naples away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses in 12 matches.
- FC Naples has conceded 24 goals in 12 away matches (2.0 per game).
- Recent away losses: 0-4 at Greenville Triumph on 2026-08-29 and 2-3 at Westchester SC on 2026-08-15.
One Knoxville is 4th in USL League One with 43 points from 24 matches and is in a playoff position.
Their last five results are WDDDD: a 2-1 win at Alta on September 6, then draws against Forward Madison, Boise, Portland Hearts of Pine, and Greenville Triumph. While they are hard to beat, the frequent draws suggest they often fail to convert chances into wins. Against a struggling FC Naples side, they will need to be more clinical to secure three points.
- One Knoxville last five matches: WDDDD.
- Most recent: 2-1 win at Alta on 2026-09-06.
- Four consecutive draws before that: 1-1 vs Forward Madison, 2-2 vs Boise, 1-1 vs Portland Hearts of Pine, 1-1 vs Greenville Triumph.
One Knoxville's newly added forward started the September 5 win at AV Alta and played 69 minutes.
That immediate start gives the home side a current forward option for this match. His 69-minute outing suggests he can be used again, though the report does not specify his role or fitness beyond that appearance.
- One Knoxville announced the forward signing on September 1.
- The club's September 6 match report says he made his professional debut as a starter against AV Alta.
- The report records a 69-minute outing before he was substituted.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 16:22 · Europe/BucharestOne Knoxville match recap: Conway's Wondergoal Wins it for One Knoxwww.oneknoxsc.com · 6 Sep 2026
FC Naples has played 24 league matches this season, with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 14 losses.
They have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches and conceded 0.9 first-half goals per game on average. In their last match, they were behind 0-1 at halftime against Boise and lost 0-2. One Knoxville scores 0.6 first-half goals per game and has led at halftime in 20% of matches, so an early goal for the home side is plausible but not guaranteed.
- FC Naples trailing at halftime: 53% of matches.
- FC Naples first-half goals conceded average: 0.9 per game.
- One Knoxville first-half goals scored average: 0.6 per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

One Knoxville SC

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Knoxville's strong home form and Naples' poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win the most likely outcome.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Knoxville's consistent scoring and Naples' defensive frailty, while Naples can still find the net, make both teams scoring likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

One Knoxville SC to score

1.13fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Naples' inability to keep clean sheets, especially away, makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's strong home form and Naples' poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- One Knoxville home record: 6W-3D-3L, 19 goals for, 14 against in 12 matches
- FC Naples away record: 2W-1D-9L, 12 goals for, 24 against in 12 matches
- One Knoxville last 5 form: WDDDD (unbeaten), FC Naples last 5: LLWWL
- H2H last 4: One Knoxville 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville rarely lose at home and Naples rarely win away, so the double chance strongly favors the home side.
- One Knoxville home unbeaten rate: 75% (9 of 12)
- FC Naples away win rate: 17% (2 of 12)
- One Knoxville last 5 home matches: 2W, 3D, 0L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOne Knoxville SC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's slight first-half edge and Naples' tendency to trail at the break support a home lead, though draws are common.
- One Knoxville leading at half time in 20% of matches
- FC Naples trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- One Knoxville first half goal difference: +0.2 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from a halftime lead is plausible given Naples' away struggles, but Knoxville's low first-half lead rate tempers confidence.
- One Knoxville home win rate: 50%
- FC Naples away loss rate: 75%
- One Knoxville leading at half time in 20% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostOne Knoxville SC/One Knoxville SCEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches trend high-scoring, especially with Naples' leaky defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- One Knoxville average total goals per match: 3.1 (1.8 for, 1.3 against)
- FC Naples average total goals per match: 3.4 (1.1 for, 2.3 against)
- FC Naples away matches average 3.0 total goals (12 for, 24 against in 12)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's consistent scoring and Naples' defensive frailty, while Naples can still find the net, make both teams scoring likely.
- One Knoxville scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- FC Naples conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
- FC Naples scored in 8 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not.
- One Knoxville first half goals per match: 0.6, conceded 0.4
- FC Naples first half goals per match: 0.3, conceded 0.9
- Combined first half average: 1.1 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- One Knoxville second half goals per match: 1.2 (1.8 total - 0.6 first half)
- FC Naples second half goals per match: 0.8 (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- Combined second half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's occasional clean sheets and Naples' scoring inconsistency make a home shutout possible but not probable.
- One Knoxville clean sheets in last 15: 2 (13% of matches)
- FC Naples failed to score in 7 of last 15 matches
- FC Naples away goals per match: 1.0
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Naples not to scoreEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Naples' inability to keep clean sheets, especially away, makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- FC Naples clean sheets in last 15: 1 (7% of matches)
- One Knoxville scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- FC Naples away clean sheets: 0 in 12 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostOne Knoxville SC to scoreEstimated chance85%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

One Knoxville SC: Over 2.5 goals has matched in 4 of 7 recent projections

One Knoxville SC has fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 57.1%, with an expected 4 fulfilled predictions, so outcomes align closely with projections. At home, 3 of 5 such predictions matched, while away only 1 of 2 matched. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 55–60%.

Recent evidence for One Knoxville SC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One