A LygaFull time

Predictions graded

Zalgiris Vilnius1FA Siauliai0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–827%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 07:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Zalgiris Vilnius are strong favourites at home against a depleted FA Siauliai side, but the odds on a home win (1.20) and double chance (1.05) offer no value.

The only slight positive edge is on both teams to score – yes at 1.85 (+1pt) or first-half both teams to score – no at 1.85 (+6pts), but these are marginal and carry risk due to Siauliai's attacking absences.

Context

FA Siauliai sit ninth in the A Lyga with 16 points from 26 matches, 16 points above the relegation line.
Their away record is the worst in the league: no wins, six draws, and seven losses in 13 games. They have conceded 25 goals on the road while scoring only 12. Zalgiris Vilnius have won six of 12 home matches, so this pattern points to a home win.
- FA Siauliai away record: 0 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses in 13 matches.
- FA Siauliai have scored 12 and conceded 25 goals away from home.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 12 matches.
FA Šiauliai midfielder Dino Hasanović is suspended after reaching the yellow-card threshold and cannot play in Vilnius.
His absence removes a midfield option from Šiauliai's matchday selection. The team must adjust their midfield setup for this league fixture, though the specific replacement is not established in the available evidence.
- LRT's 5 September match preview states that Dino Hasanović is suspended after four yellow cards and cannot play in Vilnius.
- The LFF's official cup record shows Hasanović started the 3 September semi-final and was substituted in the 77th minute.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestLRT Toplyga round previewwww.lrt.lt · 5 Sep 2026Lithuanian Football Federation cup match recordlietuvosfutbolas.lt · 3 Sep 2026
FA Šiauliai attacker Arvydas Novikovas is reported to be recovering from injury and missed the 3 September cup semi-final.
His reported absence narrows Šiauliai's attacking options for the trip to Vilnius. D. Ikaunieks started in the same position in all four recent fixtures with available lineups when Novikovas did not start, indicating a likely replacement.
- LRT reported that Arvydas Novikovas was recovering from injury.
- The same preview said he did not appear in FA Šiauliai's 3 September LFF Cup semi-final.
- D. Ikaunieks started in the same position in 4 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Novikovas did not start.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestLRT Toplyga round previewwww.lrt.lt · 5 Sep 2026
FA Šiauliai attacker Nedas Garbaliauskas is also reported to be recovering from injury and missed the 3 September cup semi-final.
His reported absence further reduces the attacking options available to Šiauliai. D. Ikaunieks started in the same position in all four recent fixtures with available lineups when Garbaliauskas did not start, suggesting a similar adjustment.
- LRT reported that Nedas Garbaliauskas was recovering from injury.
- The same preview said he did not appear in FA Šiauliai's 3 September LFF Cup semi-final.
- D. Ikaunieks started in the same position in 4 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when N. Garbaliauskas did not start.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:33 · Europe/BucharestLRT Toplyga round previewwww.lrt.lt · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zalgiris Vilnius

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's HIGH confidence and dominant H2H (4 wins in last 5) support a home win, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris' strong home form and dominant H2H record, combined with Siauliai's winless away season, make a home win highly likely.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home record: 6W 1D 5L, 23 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 home matches.
- FA Siauliai away record: 0W 6D 7L, 12 goals scored, 25 conceded in 13 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris won 4, drew 0, lost 1; aggregate 13-3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Siauliai have not won away all season, so backing Zalgiris or draw covers the most likely outcomes.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home record: 6W 1D 5L.
- FA Siauliai away record: 0W 6D 7L.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris won 4, drew 0, lost 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZalgiris Vilnius or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Siauliai's poor first-half record and Zalgiris' home edge make a home lead at the break plausible.
- Zalgiris led at halftime in 13% of recent matches, but home advantage may improve this.
- FA Siauliai trailed at halftime in 53% of recent matches.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris led at halftime in 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris' superior quality and Siauliai's fatigue from the cup match should see the home side dominate after the break.
- Zalgiris have a positive goal difference at home (+5).
- FA Siauliai have a negative away goal difference (-13).
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris won the second half in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is a reasonable outcome given Siauliai's away struggles.
- Zalgiris home record: 6W 1D 5L.
- FA Siauliai away record: 0W 6D 7L.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris led at halftime and won in 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostZalgiris Vilnius/Zalgiris VilniusEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While possible, winning both halves requires sustained dominance, which is less certain.
- Zalgiris have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- FA Siauliai have lost both halves in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris won both halves in 1 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Siauliai rarely lead at halftime, so backing Zalgiris or draw covers the most likely first-half outcomes.
- Zalgiris led at halftime in 13% of recent matches, but home advantage may improve this.
- FA Siauliai trailed at halftime in 53% of recent matches.
- H2H last 5: Zalgiris led or drew at halftime in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonZalgiris Vilnius or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H suggest a high-scoring game, with Zalgiris likely to contribute multiple goals.
- Zalgiris home matches average 3.4 total goals (23 scored + 18 conceded in 12).
- FA Siauliai away matches average 2.8 total goals (12 scored + 25 conceded in 13).
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Siauliai have found the net in most away games despite poor results, and Zalgiris' home defence is not watertight.
- Zalgiris conceded in 8 of 12 home matches (18 goals against).
- FA Siauliai scored in 8 of 13 away matches (12 goals for).
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and the coach's call for a sharper start may lead to early action.
- Zalgiris average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in recent matches.
- FA Siauliai average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals occurred in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The game is likely to open up in the second half as Siauliai chase the game, leading to more goals.
- Zalgiris home matches average 3.4 total goals, with many coming after halftime.
- FA Siauliai away matches average 2.8 total goals.
- H2H last 5: second-half goals in all 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are not frequent for both teams simultaneously, and Siauliai's early struggles reduce the chance.
- Zalgiris average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- FA Siauliai average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 83% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W0-3ŠiauliaivFK Zalgiris VilniusJul 5, 2026A L

L3-1FK Zalgiris VilniusvŠiauliaiMay 6, 2026A L

W0-2ŠiauliaivFK Zalgiris VilniusMar 7, 2026A L

L4-2FK Zalgiris VilniusvŠiauliaiJan 31, 2026FRI

L1-0FK Zalgiris VilniusvŠiauliaiOct 26, 2025A L

Zalgiris Vilnius: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

A Lyga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Zalgiris Vilnius	24	11	4	9	37-29	37	LWLWW
9	FA Siauliai	26	3	7	16	24-55	16	LLWLL

21pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Zalgiris Vilnius

L0-2PanevėžysAug 30A L

W2-0Džiugas TelšiaiAug 23A L

L2-3BangaAug 16A L

L0-4HNK Hajduk SplitAug 13UEF

L2-5HNK Hajduk SplitAug 6UEF

W7-2Dinamo TbilisiJul 30UEF

W3-2Hegelmann LitauenJul 27A L

L0-3Dinamo TbilisiJul 23UEF

W3-1TransINVEST VilniusJul 19A L

W2-1PetrovacJul 16UEF

W3-1PetrovacJul 9UEF

W3-0ŠiauliaiJul 5A L

D0-0Džiugas TelšiaiJun 28A L

L0-3BangaJun 20A L

W3-0PanevėžysJun 16A L

FA Siauliai

L0-1Kauno ŽalgirisSep 3CUP

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleAug 30A L

L0-3TransINVEST VilniusAug 24A L

W1-0PanevėžysAug 17A L

L3-4Džiugas TelšiaiAug 9A L

L1-3BangaAug 3A L

L0-2Hegelmann LitauenJul 24A L

L0-4Kauno ŽalgirisJul 18A L

L0-3FK Zalgiris VilniusJul 5A L

L1-3TransINVEST VilniusJun 29A L

W2-1Džiugas TelšiaiJun 24CUP

L2-3PanevėžysJun 20A L

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleJun 16A L

L3-4Džiugas TelšiaiJun 12A L

D1-1BangaMay 30A L

Squad & Injuries

Zalgiris Vilnius

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

FA Siauliai

32 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Zalgiris Vilnius1FA Siauliai0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

No

Zalgiris Vilnius

Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw

Zalgiris Vilnius

Zalgiris Vilnius at half-time / Zalgiris Vilnius at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Over 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 7 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Zalgiris Vilnius

Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Zalgiris Vilnius

FA Siauliai

Squad & Injuries

Zalgiris Vilnius

FA Siauliai