A LygaFull time

Predictions graded

FA Siauliai1Banga Gargzdai3

HT 1–2Mon 3 Aug 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 23:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Banga Gargzdai are clear favorites given FA Šiauliai's dreadful form and the 17-point gap, but the draw-heavy H2H tempers outright win value.

The strongest betting edge is on a low-scoring affair: under 2.5 goals (1.80) and under 0.5 first-half goals (2.80) both offer value, backed by Šiauliai's home scoring struggles and Banga's defensive solidity. Avoid backing the home side in any capacity.

Context

Lost 0-2 at home to Hegelmann Litauen on 24 July.
- Lost 0-4 away to Kauno Žalgiris on 18 July.
- Lost 0-3 at home to FK Žalgiris on 5 July.
- Conceded 15 goals across the five defeats.
Won 3-1 away to TransINVEST on 12 July.
- Won 2-0 at home to Hegelmann on 28 June.
- Won 3-0 at home to FK Žalgiris on 20 June.
- Kept clean sheets in three of those four wins.
0-0 draw at Šiauliai on 4 April 2026.
- 1-1 draw at Banga on 30 May 2026.
- Nine of the last 20 overall meetings have been draws.
Home record: W2 D1 L6, 6 goals scored, 21 conceded.
- Lost their last three home league matches by an aggregate 0-8.
- Only one home clean sheet all season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banga Gargzdai's strong form and FA Siauliai's poor recent results, combined with the significant gap in the standings, give Banga a clear edge despite the draw-heavy H2H.
- Banga Gargzdai are 6th with 30 points from 20 matches, while FA Siauliai are 9th with 13 points from 21 matches.
- FA Siauliai have lost their last 5 league matches, conceding 15 goals in that span.
- Banga Gargzdai have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, keeping 3 clean sheets.
- FA Siauliai have the worst home record in the league: 2 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, with 6 goals scored and 21 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBanga GargzdaiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given FA Siauliai's poor form and the draw-heavy H2H, Banga Gargzdai are highly unlikely to lose, making the double chance a strong play.
- Both 2026 league meetings ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1).
- FA Siauliai have lost 12 of 21 league matches this season.
- Banga Gargzdai have lost only 6 of 20 league matches.
- FA Siauliai have failed to win any of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Banga GargzdaiEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with a high frequency of halftime draws in recent matches and H2H history.
- FA Siauliai have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Banga Gargzdai have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Both 2026 H2H matches were level at halftime (0-0 and 0-0).
- FA Siauliai average 0.5 first-half goals, while Banga average 0.7 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Banga win is a plausible scenario given FA Siauliai's second-half collapses and Banga's ability to finish strong, though the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact sequences.
- Both 2026 H2H matches were draws at halftime, with Banga winning the second half in one of them (1-1 draw).
- Banga Gargzdai have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, often scoring in the second half.
- FA Siauliai have lost 5 consecutive league matches, conceding most goals after halftime.
- Banga's away form is solid, with 4 wins in 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Banga GargzdaiEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low-scoring trend in recent H2H matches, combined with Banga's solid defense and FA Siauliai's home scoring struggles, supports a low-scoring affair.
- Both 2026 league H2H meetings finished Under 2.5 (0-0 and 1-1).
- Banga Gargzdai have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches.
- FA Siauliai have scored only 6 goals in 9 home matches this season.
- Banga Gargzdai's away matches average only 1.27 total goals (8 scored, 6 conceded in 11 matches).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FA Siauliai's attacking struggles at home and Banga's defensive solidity make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Banga Gargzdai have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches.
- FA Siauliai have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- The last H2H at this venue ended 0-0.
- FA Siauliai have scored only 6 goals in 9 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banga's strong defensive record on the road and FA Siauliai's home scoring woes give Banga a decent chance of a clean sheet, though the H2H draws suggest some risk.
- Banga Gargzdai have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches.
- FA Siauliai have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- The last H2H at this venue ended 0-0.
- Banga Gargzdai have conceded only 6 goals in 11 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFA Siauliai not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring averages for both teams and the goalless first halves in recent H2H meetings point to a quiet opening period.
- Both 2026 H2H matches were 0-0 at halftime.
- FA Siauliai have scored only 0.5 first-half goals on average this season.
- Banga Gargzdai have scored only 0.7 first-half goals on average this season.
- In 4 of FA Siauliai's last 5 matches, the first half had under 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of corner data, the expectation of a low-scoring, tight match supports a lower corner count, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats.
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners.
- Both teams lack detailed shot and possession data, suggesting a cautious approach.
- The last H2H at this venue (0-0) likely had limited attacking activity.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 32% leaves no cushion vs our 25% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1BangavŠiauliaiMay 30, 2026A L

D0-0ŠiauliaivBangaApr 4, 2026A L

W1-4ŠiauliaivBangaJan 23, 2026FRI

W1-3ŠiauliaivBangaOct 22, 2025A L

L1-0BangavŠiauliaiAug 4, 2025A L

Banga Gargzdai: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

A Lyga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	FA Siauliai	21	2	7	12	18-43	13	LLLLL
6	Banga Gargzdai	20	8	6	6	22-15	30	LWWWW

17pt gap between teams

Recent Form

FA Siauliai

L0-2Hegelmann LitauenJul 24A L

L0-4Kauno ŽalgirisJul 18A L

L0-3FK Zalgiris VilniusJul 5A L

L1-3TransINVEST VilniusJun 29A L

W2-1Džiugas TelšiaiJun 24CUP

L2-3PanevėžysJun 20A L

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleJun 16A L

L3-4Džiugas TelšiaiJun 12A L

D1-1BangaMay 30A L

W2-0FK TrakaiMay 25A L

W2-1Ataka VilniusMay 20CUP

D0-0Kauno ŽalgirisMay 16A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenMay 9A L

L1-3FK Zalgiris VilniusMay 6A L

W2-1Suduva MarijampoleMay 2A L

Banga Gargzdai

L0-1Džiugas TelšiaiJul 19A L

W3-1TransINVEST VilniusJul 12A L

W2-0Hegelmann LitauenJun 28A L

W3-0FK Zalgiris VilniusJun 20A L

W1-0Kauno ŽalgirisJun 17A L

D0-0Suduva MarijampoleJun 13A L

D1-1ŠiauliaiMay 30A L

L0-1PanevėžysMay 24A L

W1-0Džiugas TelšiaiMay 16A L

D2-2TransINVEST VilniusMay 10A L

W4-0FK TrakaiMay 5A L

D2-2Kauno ŽalgirisMay 1A L

W2-1Hegelmann LitauenApr 26A L

W4-0Vilniaus VytisApr 21CUP

D1-1FK Zalgiris VilniusApr 17A L

Squad & Injuries

FA Siauliai

36 available

Attackers5

Midfielders16

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Banga Gargzdai

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

FA Siauliai1Banga Gargzdai3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Banga Gargzdai

Draw or Banga Gargzdai

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

FA Siauliai

FA Siauliai, draw no bet

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FA Siauliai

Banga Gargzdai

Squad & Injuries

FA Siauliai

Banga Gargzdai