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Predictions graded

FC Dallas4Sporting Kansas City3

HT 3–2Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 15–26On targetOn target 10–10CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 05:52 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Dallas are the likely winners at home against a Sporting KC side reeling from the Joveljić trade, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The only market with a small positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91 (our estimate 55% vs implied 52.4%). Avoid the heavily juiced BTTS and first-half markets.

Context

Sporting Kansas City are 15th in the Western Conference with 15 points from 22 matches.
Their away record is 2 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with 8 goals scored and 33 conceded. This shows a clear weakness on the road, and FC Dallas have a solid home record with only 2 losses in 9 matches. The gap in away performance is a strong indicator that Sporting Kansas City will struggle to get a result here.
- Sporting Kansas City away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses in 11 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have conceded 33 goals away, an average of 3 per match.
- FC Dallas home record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches.
Sporting Kansas City attacker D. Joveljić, who started 3 of the last 5 available lineups, was traded to Seattle Sounders on August 25.
His departure removes a forward who had been a regular starter, forcing Sporting to reorganize their front line for this match. The team must now rely on other options, with the new signing André Luiz likely to see increased responsibility.
- Sporting Kansas City traded Joveljić to Seattle Sounders on August 25, 2026.
- The club said Joveljić recorded 26 goals and five assists in 55 appearances across all competitions for Sporting.
- D. Joveljić started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 05:50 · Europe/BucharestSporting KC transfer announcementwww.sportingkc.com · 25 Aug 2026Sporting KC transaction trackerwww.sportingkc.com · 25 Aug 2026
Sporting Kansas City have only 15 points from 22 matches and sit 15th in the Western Conference.
Their last five results are LLDLL, with the most recent being a 3-0 loss at home to Vancouver Whitecaps on August 30. They have scored only 1 goal in their last three matches. This poor run reduces their confidence and ability to compete against a stronger FC Dallas side.
- Sporting Kansas City last five matches: LLDLL.
- Lost 3-0 at home to Vancouver Whitecaps on 2026-08-30.
- Scored only 1 goal in their last three matches.
FC Dallas are 5th in the Western Conference with 34 points from 22 matches.
At home, they have 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 16. Their last home match was a 2-0 win over Club Queretaro in the Leagues Cup on August 6. This home strength gives them an advantage against a struggling Sporting Kansas City side.
- FC Dallas home record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches.
- Last home match: 2-0 win over Club Queretaro on 2026-08-06.
- FC Dallas are unbeaten in their last three home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

FC Dallas

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

FC Dallas's strong home form and Sporting KC's terrible away record make the home side the likely winner, but the odds already reflect that.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Dallas or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

FC Dallas's strong home unbeaten rate and Sporting KC's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely, but the price is too short.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Dallas or Draw

1.13fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

FC Dallas is unlikely to trail at half-time given their first-half record and Sporting KC's poor first-half performance, but the odds are extremely short.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

FC Dallas home games frequently see both teams score, but Sporting KC's poor away scoring and recent roster changes reduce confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas's strong home form and Sporting KC's terrible away record, combined with recent form, make the home side the likely winner.
- FC Dallas home record: 3W-4D-2L, 18 goals scored, 16 conceded in 9 home matches
- Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-9L, 8 goals scored, 33 conceded in 11 away matches
- FC Dallas last 5 form: D-L-W-W-D (8 points); Sporting KC last 5 form: L-L-D-L-L (1 point)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC DallasEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas's strong home unbeaten rate and Sporting KC's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- FC Dallas home record: 3W-4D-2L (78% unbeaten at home)
- Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-9L (82% away losses)
- H2H last 5: FC Dallas won 3, Sporting KC won 2, no draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Dallas or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas's superior first-half scoring and Sporting KC's tendency to trail at the break give the home side an edge, but the probability remains modest.
- FC Dallas leading at half-time in 33% of matches overall
- Sporting KC trailing at half-time in 60% of matches overall
- FC Dallas average 0.9 first-half goals scored vs Sporting KC's 0.3
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC DallasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas's better second-half goal differential and Sporting KC's poor away second-half defense favor the home side.
- FC Dallas average 0.9 second-half goals scored vs 0.8 conceded
- Sporting KC average 0.6 second-half goals scored vs 1.2 conceded
- Sporting KC's away second-half goal difference is significantly negative
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC DallasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of FC Dallas leading at half-time and winning the match is plausible but not highly likely given their moderate home win rate.
- FC Dallas leading at half-time in 33% of matches
- FC Dallas home win rate: 33% (3 of 9)
- Sporting KC away loss rate: 82% (9 of 11)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFC Dallas/FC DallasEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas winning both halves requires consistent scoring and defensive solidity, which is unlikely given their mixed home form.
- FC Dallas average 0.9 first-half goals and 0.9 second-half goals scored
- Sporting KC average 0.3 first-half goals and 0.6 second-half goals scored
- Sporting KC away matches: only 2 wins in 11, with poor goal difference
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostFC DallasEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas is unlikely to trail at half-time given their first-half record and Sporting KC's poor first-half performance.
- FC Dallas leading at half-time in 33% of matches, drawing in 40% (trailing 27%)
- Sporting KC trailing at half-time in 60% of matches
- Sporting KC's first-half goal difference is -1.0 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Dallas or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring.
- FC Dallas home matches average 3.78 total goals (18 scored + 16 conceded in 9 games)
- Sporting KC away matches average 3.73 total goals (8 scored + 33 conceded in 11 games)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas's home games frequently see both teams score, and Sporting KC has managed to score in over half their away games despite poor results.
- FC Dallas home matches: both teams scored in 7 of 9 (78%)
- Sporting KC away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 11 (55%)
- FC Dallas average 1.8 goals scored per match overall; Sporting KC average 0.9 goals scored per match overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 first-half goals, though Sporting KC's low scoring reduces confidence.
- FC Dallas average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 first-half goals conceded overall
- Sporting KC average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.3 first-half goals conceded overall
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.7 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede more in the second half, and the combined average supports over 1.5 second-half goals.
- FC Dallas average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 0.8 second-half goals conceded overall
- Sporting KC average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 1.2 second-half goals conceded overall
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.75 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's poor first-half scoring makes it unlikely both teams will score in the first half.
- FC Dallas average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 first-half goals conceded
- Sporting KC average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.3 first-half goals conceded
- Sporting KC's low first-half scoring reduces the chance of both teams scoring before the break
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a near-even chance of over 8.5 corners, with FC Dallas's home matches tending to have higher totals.
- FC Dallas average 3.7 corners per match, opponent corners 6.3 (total 10.0)
- Sporting KC average 4.0 corners per match, opponent corners 5.1 (total 9.1)
- Combined average total corners: 9.55
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the line, making this a coin-flip market.
- FC Dallas average 3.7 shots on target per match, opponent 4.7 (total 8.4)
- Sporting KC average 3.7 shots on target per match, opponent 5.3 (total 9.0)
- Combined average shots on target: 8.7
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FC Dallas has been reliable in over 2.5 goals projections

FC Dallas has fulfilled 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 65.5%, with an expected 2.6 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment slightly exceeded expectation. The only miss came in an away match with a 70% probability, while all three successes were also away, indicating consistent over performance on the road.

Recent evidence for FC Dallas4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer