Bologna2Sassuolo2

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 21–15On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 10–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 07:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Sassuolo to win at 3.75 (42% model probability vs 26.7% implied) and consider the double chance 'Draw or Sassuolo' at 1.85.

Avoid the first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.36 due to heavy market overpricing. Monitor Berardi's minutes and Sassuolo's cup rotation before finalizing bets.

Context

Bologna are 15th in Serie A with no points from two matches, while Sassuolo are 11th with three points.
Bologna lost 0-1 at Atalanta on 31 August and 0-1 at home to Lazio on 24 August, failing to score in either game. Their average of 0.9 goals per match is low, and they have not led at half-time in 27% of matches. This scoring drought is a clear problem for a team that needs points at home.
- Bologna lost 0-1 at Atalanta on 31 August 2026.
- Bologna lost 0-1 at home to Lazio on 24 August 2026.
- Bologna have scored 0 goals in Serie A this season.
Sassuolo are 11th in Serie A with three points from two matches, while Bologna are 15th with zero points.
Sassuolo won 2-1 at home to Torino on 29 August, with 19 shots and 7 on target. They lost 1-2 at Atalanta in their opening match, but the Torino win shows they can create chances and score. Their away record is weaker, with one loss, but they have a clear points advantage over Bologna.
- Sassuolo beat Torino 2-1 at home on 29 August 2026.
- Sassuolo lost 1-2 at Atalanta on 23 August 2026.
- Sassuolo have 3 points from 2 matches, Bologna have 0.
Bologna attacker J. Rowe was omitted from the 31 August Atalanta squad after Tedesco said he appeared unsettled, and he has not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His availability for Sassuolo remains unresolved, so Bologna's wide-attacking options could change if he is again left out. F. Bernardeschi has started in the same position in four of those five matches, which provides a direct replacement if Rowe remains unavailable.
- On 30 August, Tedesco said Rowe was not called up for Atalanta because he appeared unsettled.
- RAI reported that the omission occurred while Rowe was a transfer target for Atalanta.
- J. Rowe started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- F. Bernardeschi started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Rowe did not start.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 07:06 · Europe/BucharestRAI Emilia-Romagna: Tedesco on Rowe omissionwww.rainews.it · 30 Aug 2026
Bologna average 0.9 goals per match and have scored 0 in Serie A this season.
In their two league matches, Bologna had 16 shots against Atalanta and 14 against Lazio, but only 3 and 5 on target respectively. They have not scored in either game, and their shot conversion is poor. Sassuolo's defence has conceded 3 goals in 2 matches, so Bologna may get chances, but their finishing has been a problem.
- Bologna had 16 shots and 3 on target in the 0-1 loss at Atalanta.
- Bologna had 14 shots and 5 on target in the 0-1 loss to Lazio.
- Bologna have scored 0 goals in Serie A this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's superior early-season form and Bologna's scoring struggles give the visitors the edge.
- Bologna have lost both Serie A matches this season, scoring 0 goals.
- Sassuolo have won 1 of 2 league games, scoring 3 goals.
- Bologna's last 5 competitive matches: 1W 1D 3L, with 0 goals in 3 of them.
- Sassuolo's away record this season: 1 loss, but they scored in that match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSassuoloEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's poor form makes a home win unlikely, so backing the away side or draw is safer.
- Bologna have 0 points from 2 games, with 0 goals scored.
- Sassuolo have 3 points and a positive goal difference.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Bologna wins, 1 Sassuolo win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SassuoloEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be evenly matched with few goals.
- Bologna's last 5 competitive matches: 3 draws at halftime.
- Sassuolo's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws at halftime.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring stalemate is possible given both teams' struggles.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall.
- Bologna have drawn 1 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Sassuolo have drawn 1 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring rates and recent low-scoring patterns suggest a tight game.
- Bologna's last 5 competitive matches: 4 had under 2.5 goals.
- Bologna average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
- Sassuolo average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's attacking struggles make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Bologna have scored 0 goals in Serie A this season.
- Sassuolo have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Bologna average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Sassuolo average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Bologna's last 5 competitive matches: 4 had 0 or 1 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fatigue and tactical adjustments could lead to more goals after the break.
- Bologna concede 1.7 goals per game, with many coming after halftime.
- Sassuolo score 1.4 goals per game, often in the second half.
- Combined second-half goals in recent matches average around 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's leaky defense makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Bologna have conceded in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Bologna concede 1.7 goals per game on average.
- Sassuolo have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSassuolo to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's defense is not solid enough to keep a clean sheet away.
- Sassuolo have conceded in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Sassuolo concede 1.5 goals per game on average.
- Bologna have scored in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBologna to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate relatively few corners, suggesting a low total.
- Bologna average 3.8 corners per game, Sassuolo 3.4.
- Combined average corners per game: 7.2.
- Bologna's last 5 competitive matches: 4 had under 10 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is right at the line, but Bologna's low output tips it under.
- Bologna average 3.3 shots on target per game.
- Sassuolo average 5.2 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's disciplinary record could push the total cards over the line.
- Bologna average 1.3 yellow cards per game, Sassuolo 2.1.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.4.
- Sassuolo have received 2+ cards in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%