Fiorentina - Sassuolo

🇮🇹 Serie AFinished

Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 10:30

Finished Snapshot

FT0-0

FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-0

Predictions

4W · 6L · 0P

Edges

0W · 5L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

49%-51%

Shots

22-11

Shots on Target

5-1

Corners

7-4

Quick Take

**TLDR:** Fiorentina hold home advantage and relegation urgency, but are crippled by defensive injuries (four first-choice defenders out) and Conference League burnout—while Sassuolo's manager Grosso is distracted by his imminent Fiorentina job negotiations.

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.572%+9.5pp

Clean Sheet HomeNo70%+11.2pp

Cards Over/UnderOver 4.568%+22.5pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Implied: 62.5% -> Our estimate: 72% -> Edge: +9.5pts

•Fiorentina avg 2.6 yellows/game + Sassuolo avg 2.2 = 4.8 combined (last 10)
•Fiorentina recent: 4 vs Lecce, 5 vs Crystal Palace, 3 vs Lazio (avg 4.0)
•Sassuolo avg fouls 10.8/match; Fiorentina 12.2/match = high contact pattern

Implied: 58.8% → Our estimate: 70% → Edge: +11.2pts

•Fiorentina missing 3 starting defenders
•Sassuolo scored in 4 of 5 H2H meetings
•Sassuolo 3-1 win vs Fiorentina Dec 6, 2025

Implied: 45.5% -> Our estimate: 68% -> Edge: +22.5pts

•Fiorentina-Sassuolo H2H volatility: recent 3-1 upset (Sassuolo Dec 2025) shows high card frequency
•Combined fouls 23/match average; physicality elevated in this rivalry
•5-card match recorded for Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace; 4-card vs Como (Sassuolo)

Implied: 58.8% → Our estimate: 68% → Edge: +9.2pts

•4 of last 5 H2H: both teams scored
•Fiorentina home: 1.25 GA/game season
•Sassuolo away: 1.25 GF/game season

Implied: 54.6% → Our estimate: 58% → Edge: +3.4pts

•H2H avg 3.6 goals/game (last 5 meetings)
•Sassuolo concede 1.5 GA/game (last 10)
•Both teams missing key defenders

Model probabilities

Double Chance1X72%Highwon

Sassuolo's poor away win rate (31%) combined with Fiorentina's must-win relegation context and current unbeaten run makes an away win improbable, strongly favoring the home side or draw.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.572%Highlost

The combined yellow card average of ~4.8 per match from both teams' recent form, amplified by the high-stakes relegation context driving physical play, makes 4+ total cards highly probable.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Home Clean SheetNo70%Highlost

Fiorentina's depleted defense (Pongracic suspended, Gosens injured) combined with Sassuolo's proven ability to score against them (goals in 4/5 H2H) and consistent away scoring (1.25/game) makes a Fiorentina clean sheet unlikely.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Both Teams to ScoreYes68%Highlost

The H2H pattern of mutual scoring (4/5 meetings), combined with both teams' defensive absences and Fiorentina's leaky home record (20 goals conceded in 16 home games), strongly supports both teams finding the net.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.562%Mediumwon

Both teams' low first-half goal averages (Fiorentina 0.9 combined, Sassuolo 1.5 combined FH goals) and Fiorentina's pattern of slow home starts suggest limited first-half scoring.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.558%Mediumlost

The overwhelmingly goal-heavy H2H record (avg 3.6 goals, 4/5 over 2.5) is the primary driver, reinforced by Sassuolo's high-conceding tendency (1.5 GA last 10) and defensive absences on both sides.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Home Goals TotalOver 1.552%Mediumlost

Sassuolo's high away concession rate (1.31/game season, 1.5/game recent) combined with Fiorentina's historically prolific home H2H scoring (avg 3.3 goals in last 3 home meetings) supports multiple Fiorentina goals.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

First Half WinnerDraw52%Mediumwon

Both teams' low first-half scoring rates and Fiorentina's pattern of slow starts at home (leading at HT only 30%) suggest the most likely half-time outcome is a draw, with goals coming predominantly in the second half.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Corners Over/UnderOver 8.545%Lowwon

The combined corner averages from recent form (~9.2 for Fiorentina matches, ~9+ baseline) sit right around the 8.5 line, but variance is high making this a low-confidence lean toward over.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Match WinnerFiorentina44%Mediumlost

Fiorentina's relegation survival stakes (8 pts from drop) provide urgent motivation that Sassuolo's comfortable midtable position cannot match, amplified by Grosso's reported managerial distraction undermining away team focus.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Bookmaker-implied probability (69.9% @ 1.43) significantly exceeds predictor estimate (62%). While caution in opening 45 mins is supported by low first-half averages (Fiorentina 0.9 combined FH, Sassuolo 1.5 combined FH), the vig is unfavorable for Under bettors. The odds offer no edge and overprice defensive solidity.

Double Chance Fiorentina or Draw @ 1.25:Market overprices 1X at 80% implied vs 72% model estimate; suggests away win undervalued, but Sassuolo's 31% away win rate and Fiorentina's strong home H2H (5W-3L) make backing away poor value despite the mispricing. High vig on both sides; avoid entire 1X market.

Cards Over/Under @ 5.25 (Over 6.5):Over 6.5 odds of 5.25 imply only 19% probability; historical data shows 6+ card matches are rare (~15-20% frequency). Insufficient edge despite model support for elevated cards.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

**Fiorentina vs Sassuolo: Motivation vs. Distraction in a Volatile Rivalry** Fiorentina enter this fixture at a critical juncture. Sitting just eight points above the Serie A relegation zone with 36 points, they face a must-win scenario that carries genuine urgency. However, their defensive infrastructure has crumbled: they're without Gosens (injury), Pongracic (suspension), Lamptey (knee), and Parisi (inactive)—effectively gutting their entire defensive rotation. Adding salt to the wound, striker Kean is sidelined with a calf injury, limiting attacking options.

Recent Form

Fiorentina

D1-1LecceApr 20SA

W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF

W1-0LazioApr 13SA

L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF

W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA

D1-1InterMar 22SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF

W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF

D0-0ParmaMar 8SA

Sassuolo

W2-1ComoApr 17SA

L1-2GenoaApr 12SA

W2-1CagliariApr 4SA

D1-1JuventusMar 21SA

L0-1BolognaMar 15SA

L1-2LazioMar 9SA

W2-1AtalantaMar 1SA

W3-0Hellas VeronaFeb 20SA

W2-1UdineseFeb 15SA

L0-5InterFeb 8SA

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Fiorentina	33	8	12	13	38-45	36	DWWDW
10	Sassuolo	33	13	6	14	41-44	45	WLWDL

9pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L3-1SassuolovFiorentinaDec 6, 2025SA

W5-1FiorentinavSassuoloApr 28, 2024SA

L1-0SassuolovFiorentinaJan 6, 2024SA

W1-3SassuolovFiorentinaJun 2, 2023SA

W2-1FiorentinavSassuoloJan 7, 2023SA

3.6 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Fiorentina

12 out

Attackers2/8

×#20

Midfielders9

Defenders8/12

×#21

×#65

×#5

×#29

×#21

×#65

×#5

×#29

Goalkeeper5

#21 R. Gosens — Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

#21 R. Gosens — Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

Sassuolo

12 out

Attackers2/7

×#10

Midfielders4/9

×#11

×#50

×#11

×#50

Defenders4/11

×#5

×#19

×#5

×#19

Goalkeeper5

#10 D. Berardi — Red Card

#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury

#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury

E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury

#50 D. Bakola — Injury

#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury

#10 D. Berardi — Red Card

#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury

#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury

E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury

#50 D. Bakola — Injury

#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury

Fiorentina - Sassuolo

Quick Take

Context Signals

Fiorentina Missing Four Defenders Plus Kean

Grosso's Fiorentina Coaching Pursuit Undermines Sassuolo Focus

Conference League Heartbreak May Sap Fiorentina Morale

Berardi Suspended Strips Sassuolo's Key Creator

Betting Edges

Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5

Clean Sheet Home — No

Cards Over/Under — Over 4.5

Both Teams to Score — Yes

Goals Over/Under — Over 2.5

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Recent Form

Fiorentina

Sassuolo

League Table

Head-to-Head

Squad & Injuries

Fiorentina

Sassuolo