Spartak Varna1CSKA Sofia1

HT 1–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 31%–69%ShotsShots 4–27On targetOn target 2–8CornersCorners 2–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 05:08 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA Sofia are the likely winners, but their short odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are both teams to score (Yes @ 1.88, +2pts edge) and over 2.5 goals (@ 1.73, fair). Avoid CSKA-heavy markets like match winner and double chance due to rotation risk and a possible defensive approach from Spartak's interim coach.

Context

CSKA Sofia sits third in the First League with 16 points from six matches, two points behind leaders Levski Sofia. Spartak Varna is sixth with 8 points from seven games.
CSKA Sofia's recent league form is strong: they beat Cherno More Varna 3-1 on August 30, Botev Vratsa 5-0 on August 16, and Septemvri Sofia 3-0 on August 9. Spartak Varna lost 6-0 to Levski Sofia on August 22 and 1-0 to Septemvri Sofia on August 17, though they drew 1-1 with Ludogorets on August 30. The gap in scoring and defensive solidity suggests CSKA can control this match, but Spartak's home draw against Ludogorets shows they can compete against top sides.
- CSKA Sofia won 3-1 vs Cherno More Varna on 2026-08-30.
- CSKA Sofia won 5-0 vs Botev Vratsa on 2026-08-16.
- Spartak Varna lost 0-6 vs Levski Sofia on 2026-08-22.
- Spartak Varna drew 1-1 vs Ludogorets on 2026-08-30.
Spartak Varna are under interim coach Vasil Petrov, who replaced Yasen Petrov after the previous coach's resignation and led the team in the 1-1 draw with Ludogorets.
The recent coaching change can alter selection and defensive organisation. Petrov's first match in charge ended 1-1 with Ludogorets, but that single result does not establish a settled approach. CSKA Sofia must prepare for possible adjustments in Spartak's lineup and defensive structure under the interim coach.
- The Professional Football League reported that Yasen Petrov's resignation was accepted and academy director Vasil Petrov would lead Spartak on an interim basis.
- The official 30 August match report lists Vasil Petrov as coach for Spartak's 1-1 draw with Ludogorets.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 05:06 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian Professional Football League previewbpfl.bg · 30 Aug 2026Bulgarian Professional Football League match reportbpfl.bg · 30 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times since December 2024, with CSKA Sofia winning three and drawing one in the league.
In the most recent league meeting on November 29, 2025, CSKA Sofia won 4-0 at Spartak Varna. They also won 1-0 away in April 2025 and drew 1-1 at home in July 2025. Spartak Varna's only win in this span was a 5-0 home victory in May 2025, but that is an outlier. CSKA's consistent scoring and defensive control in these matches suggest they know how to break down Spartak, though the 5-0 result shows Spartak can be dangerous at home.
- CSKA Sofia won 4-0 at Spartak Varna on 2025-11-29.
- CSKA Sofia won 1-0 at Spartak Varna on 2025-04-26.
- CSKA Sofia drew 1-1 at home vs Spartak Varna on 2025-07-26.
- Spartak Varna won 5-0 at home vs CSKA Sofia on 2025-05-13.
Spartak Varna's home record is 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss in four First League matches. CSKA Sofia has played two away league games, winning one and drawing one without conceding.
Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 at home on August 3 but lost 1-0 to Septemvri Sofia on August 17 and drew 1-1 with Ludogorets on August 30. CSKA Sofia won 3-0 at Septemvri Sofia on August 9 and drew 0-0 at Slavia Sofia on July 20. Spartak's inability to score consistently at home could be a problem against CSKA's solid away defense, but their clean sheet against Lokomotiv Plovdiv shows they can be organized.
- Spartak Varna home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, 4 goals for, 4 against.
- CSKA Sofia away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3 goals for, 0 against.
- Spartak Varna lost 0-1 vs Septemvri Sofia at home on 2026-08-17.
- CSKA Sofia won 3-0 at Septemvri Sofia on 2026-08-09.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

CSKA Sofia

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

CSKA's superior league form and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites, but the odds already reflect that.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CSKA Sofia

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

CSKA's stronger first-half scoring and Spartak's tendency to trail make CSKA the most likely half-time leader, but the odds are slightly short.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CSKA Sofia at half-time / CSKA Sofia at full-time

2.20fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

CSKA's ability to take early leads and maintain them supports a HT/FT double, but the odds are slightly below fair value.

Total Goals AwaylostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

CSKA's high scoring rate against a leaky Spartak defence makes multiple away goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's superior league form and dominant recent H2H record make them clear favourites.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in the league this season with 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches.
- CSKA Sofia have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 4-0 away win in the most recent encounter.
- Spartak Varna have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches and sit 8 points behind CSKA Sofia.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCSKA SofiaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's unbeaten league record and Spartak's poor form make a CSKA loss unlikely.
- CSKA Sofia have not lost a league match this season (5W, 1D).
- Spartak Varna have only 1 win in their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia have avoided defeat in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CSKA SofiaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's stronger first-half scoring and Spartak's tendency to trail make CSKA the most likely half-time leader.
- CSKA Sofia have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Spartak Varna have trailed at half-time in 27% of recent matches.
- CSKA Sofia average 0.9 first-half goals compared to Spartak's 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCSKA SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's ability to take early leads and maintain them supports a HT/FT double.
- CSKA Sofia have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- CSKA Sofia have won 5 of 6 league matches this season.
- Spartak Varna have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCSKA Sofia / CSKA SofiaEstimated chance38%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking output, and CSKA's scoring rate supports a high-scoring game.
- CSKA Sofia average 2.1 goals scored per match in recent form.
- Spartak Varna average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match.
- The last H2H meeting produced 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's home scoring ability and CSKA's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Spartak Varna have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia have conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches across all competitions.
- Spartak Varna average 1.6 goals per match at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- CSKA Sofia average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Spartak Varna average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- CSKA Sofia have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends suggest a moderate chance of multiple goals after the break.
- CSKA Sofia average 1.2 second-half goals per match (derived from total and first-half averages).
- Spartak Varna average 0.9 second-half goals per match.
- The last H2H meeting had 3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's solid away defensive record gives them a chance to shut out Spartak.
- CSKA Sofia have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches.
- Spartak Varna have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia's away record includes 2 clean sheets in 2 away league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSpartak Varna not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's high scoring rate against a leaky Spartak defence makes multiple away goals likely.
- CSKA Sofia average 2.1 goals per match overall.
- CSKA Sofia have scored 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Spartak Varna concede an average of 1.3 goals per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCSKA Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's modest home scoring and CSKA's strong away defence limit home goal expectations.
- Spartak Varna average 1.6 goals per match overall but only 1.0 goals per home match.
- CSKA Sofia have conceded only 0.5 goals per away match this season.
- Spartak Varna failed to score in their last H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSpartak Varna under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's away defensive solidity and Spartak's scoring struggles make a win to nil possible.
- CSKA Sofia have kept clean sheets in both away league matches this season.
- Spartak Varna have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia won the last H2H meeting 4-0.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance28%