UEFA Europa LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Qarabag0CSKA Sofia0

HT 0–0Thu 23 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 1–2Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 14:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 (8.8% edge) and CSKA Sofia team total Under 0.5 at 2.15 (13.5% edge) in a match where all three historical meetings stayed under 2.5 and CSKA have never scored against Qarabag.

Avoid the home clean sheet and Qarabag win markets, which offer no value given squad uncertainty and CSKA's upgraded attack.

Context

Qarabag's official homepage carried 'Thanks, Kamilo Duran!' alongside '7th transfer' and '8th transfer' headlines.
- Duran was a key forward, appearing at the club's February pre-match presser, indicating a significant loss.
- The squad is still being reshaped heading into this qualifier, per the official site.
In Qarabag's 15 July official preview, Qurbanov said 'the long trip had caused fatigue'.
- The comment came before the Vestri return leg, just days before this match.
- Travel fatigue can reduce pressing intensity and sharpness, especially early in the season.
All three H2H meetings ended with CSKA Sofia scoreless: 1-0, 1-0, 0-0.
- The most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in June 2026.
- While friendlies differ from competitive matches, the consistent failure to score is notable.
AiScore fixture list shows CSKA away to Slavia Sofia on 21 July and home to Botev Plovdiv on 28 July.
- This creates a three-match, eight-day stretch around the two Qarabag legs.
- Such scheduling often leads to squad rotation or tired legs in the first leg.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qarabag's home advantage and historical dominance in this fixture give them the edge, despite squad reshaping.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in 3 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw).
- Qarabag won 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- CSKA Sofia lost 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostQarabagEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qarabag's strong home form and CSKA Sofia's poor away record make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Qarabag have not lost to CSKA Sofia in 3 meetings.
- Qarabag lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia have won only 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonQarabag or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of level first halves and both teams' recent first-half records point to a draw at the break.
- Qarabag led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, but only 1 of last 5 home games.
- CSKA Sofia trailed at half-time in 40% of recent matches, but drew 3 of last 5 first halves.
- All 3 H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows a consistent low-scoring pattern, and CSKA Sofia's attack has been blunt against Qarabag historically, making Under 2.5 likely.
- All 3 H2H meetings (2026, 2023, 2021) ended Under 2.5 with CSKA Sofia scoring 0 goals.
- Qarabag's last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets, 2.4 goals scored per game but against weaker opposition.
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 matches: 1.2 goals scored per game, 1.6 conceded, with 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's historical scoring drought against Qarabag and Qarabag's recent defensive solidity suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- CSKA Sofia failed to score in all 3 H2H meetings.
- Qarabag kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in only 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves reinforces a low-scoring opening period.
- Qarabag's last 5 matches: 1.1 first-half goals scored, 0.4 conceded on average.
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 matches: 0.4 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded on average.
- All 3 H2H meetings had 0 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qarabag's tendency to score late and CSKA Sofia's occasional defensive lapses after the break could lead to a more open second half.
- Qarabag scored 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded 2+ second-half goals in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag's last 5 home matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qarabag's defensive form and CSKA Sofia's historical struggles against them make a home clean sheet plausible.
- Qarabag kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- CSKA Sofia have never scored against Qarabag in 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCSKA Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Qarabag's strong home scoring record and CSKA Sofia's away defensive vulnerabilities suggest the hosts will score at least twice.
- Qarabag scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Qarabag averaged 2.4 goals per match in their last 15 games.
- CSKA Sofia conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostQarabag over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's away scoring drought and Qarabag's defensive solidity make it likely the visitors will draw a blank.
- CSKA Sofia failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- CSKA Sofia have never scored against Qarabag in 3 H2H meetings.
- Qarabag kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCSKA Sofia under 0.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests a moderate total, but the low-scoring nature of the fixture points to fewer set-piece opportunities.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 5 corners per match in recent games.
- Qarabag's corner data is unavailable, but their possession stats are low.
- The only match with corner data (CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia) had 10 corners total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With no intense rivalry and a controlled officiating style, a low card count is expected.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 1.7 yellow cards per match in recent games.
- Qarabag's card data is unavailable, but their recent matches show few cards.
- The referee is Italian, known for a balanced approach.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

D0-0CSKA SofiavQarabagJun 27, 2026FRI

W0-1CSKA SofiavQarabagJul 4, 2023FRI

W0-1CSKA SofiavQarabagJul 7, 2021FRI

Qarabag unbeaten in 3 meetingsQarabag: 3 clean sheets0.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Qarabag

W3-0VestriJul 16UEF

W3-0VestriJul 9UEF

L0-1Ferencvarosi TCJul 1FRI

L2-6Metalist 1925 KharkivJul 1FRI

W4-0WSG WattensJun 27FRI

W4-3SumqayıtMay 22PRE

W3-0Imisli FKMay 16PRE

D1-1QabalaMay 9PRE

W2-1TuranMay 4PRE

L1-2Neftchi BakuApr 30PRE

W5-1Neftchi BakuApr 26PRE

L1-2Sabah FAApr 22CUP

L0-1Sabah FAApr 18PRE

D0-0Şamaxı FKApr 11PRE

W7-0KarvanApr 6PRE

CSKA Sofia

W2-1Derry CityJul 16UEF

W3-2Derry CityJul 9UEF

W3-0MarekJul 3FRI

W3-2Odra OpoleJun 28FRI

L0-4PolessyaJun 24FRI

W2-1Brinje-GrosupljeJun 20FRI

L0-1LudogoretsMay 25FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948May 13FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 8FIR

W1-0LudogoretsMay 3FIR

D0-0LudogoretsApr 29CUP

L1-3Levski SofiaApr 25FIR

W2-1LudogoretsApr 21CUP

D1-1Levski SofiaApr 13FIR

Squad & Injuries

Qarabag

37 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders10

Goalkeeper6

CSKA Sofia

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Draw

Under 1.5

Qarabag or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

CSKA Sofia not to score

No

CSKA Sofia

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Qarabag

CSKA Sofia

Squad & Injuries

Qarabag

CSKA Sofia