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Predictions graded

Cherno More Varna0Spartak Varna3

HT 0–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–517%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jul 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Cherno More's H2H dominance and superior stability make them favorites, but the market has already priced this in, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The best betting angle is a low-scoring first half, with the draw at 2.10 offering a slim edge based on both teams' slow starts.

Context

Cherno More opened pre-season on 22 June with 24 players, including only three newcomers, and Iliev remains head coach.
- The only staff change was a new conditioning coach, pointing to a settled setup rather than a rebuild.
- Spartak, by contrast, fielded an almost entirely new side in a friendly on 9 July, suggesting integration is still ongoing.
In the 9 July friendly, Spartak started with a side built almost entirely from new signings.
- Hadzhievski then rotated heavily, giving minutes to all available players, indicating he was still assessing combinations.
- This contrasts with Cherno More's stable pre-season and could affect Spartak's cohesion early in the match.
Cherno More are 3W-3D in the last six league derbies, with Spartak failing to win any.
- Spartak have scored only four goals across those six matches.
- The most recent meeting in February 2026 ended 0-0, continuing the trend of low-scoring, tight contests.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Cherno More Varna

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Cherno More's unbeaten H2H run (3W-3D) and Spartak's poor away form (0W-2D-3L) give the home side a clear edge, but the odds imply a 59% chance which is above our 45% estimate, so no value here.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cherno More Varna or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Cherno More have not lost any of the last 6 H2H meetings and Spartak have 0 away wins in their last 5, making a home win or draw highly probable, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

H2H history shows 4 of last 6 meetings under 2.5 goals, and Cherno More's defensive solidity (0.4 goals conceded per game in last 5 competitive matches) supports a tight, low-scoring derby.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with Cherno More's recent first halves being particularly low-scoring, and H2H history supports a cautious opening period.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology heavily favors Cherno More, who have dominated this derby recently, and their structural stability contrasts with Spartak's late integration of new signings, giving the home side a clear edge.
- Cherno More are unbeaten in the last 6 league derbies (3W-3D), with Spartak scoring only 4 goals in that span.
- Cherno More have coaching continuity and a stable pre-season, while Spartak were still integrating many new players in July friendlies.
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches (First League) show 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, with 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCherno More VarnaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The strong H2H trend of Cherno More avoiding defeat, combined with their solid recent competitive form and Spartak's poor away record, makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Cherno More have not lost any of the last 6 H2H league meetings (3W-3D).
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches: 3W-2D-0L, with only 2 goals conceded.
- Spartak Varna have 0 wins in their last 5 away league matches (0W-2D-3L).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCherno More Varna or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The derby context and both teams' tendency for slow starts, as seen in recent first-half results, point to a level score at the break.
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches: 3 draws at half-time.
- Spartak's last 5 away league matches: 2 draws at half-time.
- In the last 6 H2H meetings, 3 were draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cherno More's coaching continuity and settled squad could lead to stronger second-half performances, especially against a Spartak side still gelling, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Cherno More scored in the second half in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Spartak conceded in the second half in 3 of their last 5 away league matches.
- Cherno More's superior fitness and stability may give them an edge as the game progresses.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCherno More VarnaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Cherno More win is a plausible scenario given their tendency to grow into games, but the low frequency of this exact outcome keeps confidence low.
- Cherno More have won after a drawn first half in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Spartak have lost after a drawn first half in 1 of their last 5 away league matches.
- H2H: In the last 6 meetings, 2 matches were draws at half-time with Cherno More eventually winning.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Cherno More VarnaEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history shows low-scoring derbies, and Cherno More's recent defensive solidity (0.4 goals conceded per game in last 5 competitive matches) suggests a tight, low-scoring affair.
- 4 of the last 6 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals, including two 0-0 draws.
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.4 total goals per game.
- Spartak's last 5 away league matches averaged 2.2 total goals, but 3 of those were against top-half teams; Cherno More's defense is tighter.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of low-scoring games and Cherno More's defensive strength, especially at home, make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- In the last 6 H2H league meetings, both teams scored in only 2 matches.
- Cherno More kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Spartak failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Cherno More's recent first halves being particularly low-scoring, and H2H history supports a cautious opening period.
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches: first-half goals average 0.6 total.
- Spartak's last 5 away league matches: first-half goals average 1.0 total.
- In the last 6 H2H meetings, only 2 matches had more than 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests a moderate total, but the defensive nature of derbies and Cherno More's low corner count (1.5 per game average) point to under 9.5 corners.
- Cherno More's last 5 competitive matches with corner data: average total corners 7.0.
- Spartak's last 5 away league matches with corner data: average total corners 9.6.
- In the only recent H2H with corner data (Feb 2026), total corners were 8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches typically feature more fouls and cards, and Cherno More's higher card average suggests a total over 4.5 cards is slightly more likely.
- Cherno More average 3.0 yellow cards per game in their last 5 competitive matches with card data.
- Spartak average 1.8 yellow cards per game overall, but derbies often see increased discipline issues.
- In the last H2H with card data (Feb 2026), total cards were 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D0-0Cherno More VarnavSpartak VarnaFeb 7, 2026FIR

W1-3Spartak VarnavCherno More VarnaAug 16, 2025FIR

D1-1Cherno More VarnavSpartak VarnaMar 8, 2025FIR

W0-2Spartak VarnavCherno More VarnaSep 22, 2024FIR

W3-2Cherno More VarnavSpartak VarnaMay 7, 2023FIR

Cherno More Varna unbeaten in 5 meetingsCherno More Varna: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Cherno More Varna Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D
3	Spartak Varna Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	1	0	1	0	2-2	1	D

Recent Form

Cherno More Varna

D1-1Botev VratsaJul 19FIR

D1-1Dunav RuseJul 11FRI

D2-2DobrudzhaJul 8FRI

W1-0Farul ConstantaJul 8FRI

W1-0Spartak PlevenJul 3FRI

D0-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 1FRI

W1-0Yantra 2019Jun 24FRI

L2-3Arda KardzhaliMay 25FIR

L0-5Botev PlovdivMay 16FIR

W2-0Lokomotiv PlovdivMay 12FIR

W2-0Botev PlovdivMay 9FIR

D0-0Arda KardzhaliMay 3FIR

W1-0Lokomotiv PlovdivApr 26FIR

L0-4CSKA 1948Apr 15FIR

D0-0LudogoretsApr 9FIR

Spartak Varna

D2-2CSKA 1948Jul 17FIR

W7-3DobrudzhaJul 11FRI

D1-1NesebarJul 8FRI

L0-1Botev PlovdivJul 4FRI

D0-0Dunav RuseJun 27FRI

W3-0Lokomotiv SofiaMay 22FIR

W2-0MontanaMay 18FIR

L0-1Septemvri SofiaMay 14FIR

W2-1Slavia SofiaMay 10FIR

D1-1DobrudzhaMay 6FIR

L1-2Botev VratsaMay 2FIR

L1-2BeroeApr 24FIR

D0-0Septemvri SofiaApr 16FIR

W1-0DobrudzhaApr 10FIR

L0-5Botev PlovdivApr 4FIR

Squad & Injuries

Cherno More Varna

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Spartak Varna

27 available

Attackers9

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Cherno More Varna or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cherno More Varna

Spartak Varna

Squad & Injuries

Cherno More Varna

Spartak Varna