BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

FC Augsburg3Schalke0

HT 1–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 24–11On targetOn target 13–5CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Augsburg are favoured at home against Schalke, with a 75% chance of avoiding defeat.

The best value bet is over 1.5 second-half goals, where the model sees a 55% probability against implied odds of 42%. Avoid backing Augsburg outright or both teams to score, as the market has already priced in those outcomes.

Context

Schalke attacker Kenan Karaman has started four of the last five team fixtures with available lineups, but he has not resumed team training because of a hip injury.
Coach Miron Muslic confirmed Karaman cannot play against Augsburg, so Schalke must replace a senior attacking option and their captain in the matchday structure. The available evidence does not identify a direct replacement, leaving the exact attacking adjustment uncertain for the promoted side's first top-flight match.
- Miron Muslic confirmed that Karaman cannot play against Augsburg.
- Karaman has not yet returned to training with the team because of his hip injury.
- K. Karaman started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:10 · Europe/BucharestSchalke Total: Muslic updates on Karamanschalketotal.de · 28 Aug 2026Presse Augsburg pre-match reportpresse-augsburg.de · 29 Aug 2026
Augsburg centre-back Keven Schlotterbeck played the full cup tie at Energie Cottbus shortly before his transfer to Southampton was announced on 27 August.
His departure means Augsburg cannot retain the defensive unit used in that cup win unchanged for Schalke. The club has not supplied a named replacement, so the central-defence selection and its continuity are unsettled immediately before the league opener.
- FC Augsburg announced Schlotterbeck's transfer to Southampton on 27 August.
- The club stated that he played the entire cup tie at Energie Cottbus shortly before leaving.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:10 · Europe/BucharestFC Augsburg: Keven Schlotterbeck joins Southamptonwww.fcaugsburg.de · 27 Aug 2026
Schalke are back in the Bundesliga after winning promotion from the 2. Bundesliga last season.
They lost 0-3 to Real Madrid on 2026-08-16 and 0-3 to Atalanta on 2026-08-08 in friendlies. These heavy defeats against strong opponents may expose defensive issues, but friendlies are not always reliable indicators of league performance.
- Lost 0-3 to Real Madrid on 2026-08-16.
- Lost 0-3 to Atalanta on 2026-08-08.
Augsburg attacker Alexis Claude-Maurice has returned as an option, but coach Manuel Baum said his limited training time makes a starting place unlikely.
His expected absence from the opening XI narrows Augsburg's immediate attacking selection choices. The club has not named a specific replacement, so the attacking setup remains partly unresolved.
- Manuel Baum said Claude-Maurice is again an option after returning.
- Baum said he is unlikely to be ready for the starting XI.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:10 · Europe/BucharestFC Augsburg pre-match briefingwww.fcaugsburg.de · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Augsburg

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and stronger recent Bundesliga form give FC Augsburg the edge, reinforced by their dominant H2H win last season.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and stronger recent Bundesliga form give FC Augsburg the edge, reinforced by their dominant H2H win last season.
- FC Augsburg won 3 of last 5 Bundesliga home matches (W3 D1 L1).
- Schalke lost 2 of last 3 away matches in 2. Bundesliga (W1 L2).
- H2H: FC Augsburg won 3-0 in most recent meeting (Oct 2024).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC AugsburgEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's solid home form and Schalke's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- FC Augsburg unbeaten in 4 of last 5 Bundesliga home matches (W3 D1 L1).
- Schalke lost 2 of last 3 away matches in 2. Bundesliga.
- H2H: FC Augsburg unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings (W2 D1 L2).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Augsburg or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, and the first-half draw is a common outcome in their recent matches.
- FC Augsburg drew at halftime in 3 of last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- Schalke drew at halftime in 2 of last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a home win is plausible given FC Augsburg's second-half strength and Schalke's away fragility.
- FC Augsburg drew at halftime in 3 of last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- FC Augsburg won 3 of last 5 Bundesliga home matches.
- Schalke lost 2 of last 3 away matches in 2. Bundesliga.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FC AugsburgEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and FC Augsburg's home attack is potent.
- FC Augsburg's last 5 Bundesliga matches averaged 3.6 total goals.
- Schalke's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.8 total goals.
- FC Augsburg scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 Bundesliga home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's defensive vulnerabilities at home and Schalke's consistent scoring suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- FC Augsburg conceded in 4 of last 5 Bundesliga home matches.
- Schalke scored in 4 of last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show moderate first-half scoring, but the combined average of 2.2 first-half goals suggests a reasonable chance of over 1.5.
- FC Augsburg averaged 1.3 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- Schalke averaged 0.9 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg led at halftime in 33% of matches, Schalke in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the match is expected to open up as it progresses.
- FC Augsburg's last 5 Bundesliga matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
- Schalke's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- FC Augsburg scored 60% of their goals in the second half in recent Bundesliga matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the attacking nature of the match could push the total over 9.5.
- FC Augsburg averaged 4.3 corners per match in last 15 matches.
- Schalke averaged 3.6 corners per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 7.9 corners per match, but recent Bundesliga home games for Augsburg saw higher totals.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive, and both teams have a tendency to pick up cards.
- FC Augsburg averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match in last 15 matches.
- Schalke averaged 1.9 yellow cards per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 3.9 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W3-0FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04Oct 29, 2024DFB

D1-1FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04Mar 18, 2023BL

W2-3FC Schalke 04vFC AugsburgOct 2, 2022BL

D1-1FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04Jul 17, 2022FRI

L1-0FC Schalke 04vFC AugsburgApr 11, 2021BL

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
16	Schalke Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

FC Augsburg leads the leagueSchalke leads the leagueSchalke in relegation zone

Recent Form

FC Augsburg

W2-0Energie CottbusAug 22DFB

L0-4LeedsAug 15FRI

W3-2SassuoloAug 8FRI

W15-0SchwazAug 5FRI

L2-5BournemouthJul 30FRI

D1-1FC SaarbrückenJul 25FRI

L0-4Union BerlinMay 16BL

W3-1Borussia MönchengladbachMay 9BL

W3-1Werder BremenMay 2BL

D1-1Eintracht FrankfurtApr 25BL

W2-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 18BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimApr 10BL

D1-1Hamburger SVApr 4BL

L2-5VfB StuttgartMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundMar 14BL

Schalke

L0-3Real MadridAug 16FRI

L0-3AtalantaAug 8FRI

W5-0Hessen KasselAug 1FRI

W3-1Fagiano OkayamaJul 25FRI

W2-0FC KharkivJul 22FRI

W4-2Erzgebirge AueJul 19FRI

L1-2FC GuterslohJul 11FRI

W1-0Eintracht BraunschweigMay 172.

L0-31. FC NürnbergMay 92.

W1-0Fortuna DüsseldorfMay 22.

W3-2SC Paderborn 07Apr 262.

W4-1Preußen MünsterApr 192.

W2-1SV ElversbergApr 122.

W1-0Karlsruher SCApr 52.

L0-2FC Schweinfurt 05Mar 26FRI

Squad & Injuries

FC Augsburg

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Schalke

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

FC Augsburg or Draw

Over 1.5

FC Augsburg

Over 2.5

Yes

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Augsburg

Schalke

Squad & Injuries

FC Augsburg

Schalke