Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Bohemians3Sligo Rovers0

HT 3–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 19–2On targetOn target 9–0CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians are clear favourites but the 1.29 home win price offers no value (55% model vs 77.5% implied).

The best edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10 (+7.4 points), with Both Teams to Score also slightly positive at 1.91. Sligo's unresolved managerial situation and Bohemians' modest home scoring record make the match more uncertain than the market suggests.

Context

On 21 July, Sligo confirmed assistant Ryan Casey left to join former manager John Russell at Shelbourne.
- Declan Boyle was handling preparations while the club interviewed for a new men's first-team manager.
- No later appointment confirmation surfaced in this sweep.
Bohemians home record: 5 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses.
- Only 22 goals scored in 14 home matches.
- Recent home league results include a 1-1 draw with Galway United and a 1-2 loss to Dundalk.
Sligo away record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses.
- Only 9 goals scored in 14 away matches.
- Recent away league results include a 0-2 loss to Derry City and a 0-2 loss to St Patrick's Athletic.
2026 H2H results: 1-3 Bohemians (at Sligo), 1-2 Sligo (at Bohemians), 0-4 Bohemians (at Sligo).
- All three matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Sligo's 2-1 win at Dalymount in April shows they can compete at this venue.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bohemians

1.29fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Bohemians' superior league position and Sligo's poor away form support a home win, but the odds are far too short relative to our 55% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bohemians or Draw

1.07fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 93.5%

−13.5ppshort

Bohemians have lost only 3 of 14 home matches and Sligo have won only 2 of 14 away, but the odds are extremely short.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

All three 2026 H2H meetings produced at least 3 goals, and both teams have high concede rates.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, with combined averages suggesting a decent chance of at least one goal before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' superior league position and recent H2H dominance, combined with Sligo's poor away form, make them favourites despite a modest home record.
- Bohemians are 3rd with 47 points, Sligo are 10th with 23 points (24-point gap).
- Bohemians won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings, including 3-1 away in May 2026.
- Sligo away record: 2W-3D-9L, only 9 goals scored in 14 away matches.
- Bohemians home record: 5W-6D-3L, but only 22 goals scored in 14 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sligo's away struggles and Bohemians' solid home form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Bohemians have lost only 3 of 14 home matches this season.
- Sligo have won only 2 of 14 away matches.
- Bohemians are unbeaten in 5 of last 6 home matches (W3 D2 L1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBohemians or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' tendency to start strongly at home gives them a slight edge, but the probability remains low due to the draw possibility.
- Bohemians led at half-time in 33% of matches, Sligo in 33%.
- Bohemians have scored first in 5 of last 6 home matches.
- Sligo trailed at half-time in 33% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Bohemians lead at half-time often translates to a win, but the overall probability is modest given their home draw tendency.
- Bohemians have led at half-time and won in 4 of 14 home matches.
- Sligo have trailed at half-time and lost in 5 of 14 away matches.
- Bohemians won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBohemians/BohemiansEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-scoring pattern in recent H2H meetings and both teams' tendency to concede goals support over 2.5 goals.
- All three 2026 H2H meetings produced at least 3 goals.
- Bohemians average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Sligo average 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match.
- Sligo's away matches average 2.3 total goals, but Bohemians' home matches average 2.9 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Sligo's defensive vulnerabilities away from home increase the chance of both teams scoring.
- Both teams scored in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
- Bohemians have scored in 12 of 14 home matches.
- Sligo have scored in 8 of 14 away matches.
- Sligo have conceded in 12 of 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, with combined averages suggesting a decent chance of at least one goal before the break.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Sligo average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- In last 3 H2H meetings, first-half goals occurred in 2 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half has been more productive in recent H2H meetings, and Sligo's defensive record worsens after the break.
- Bohemians average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Sligo average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
- In last 3 H2H meetings, second-half goals averaged 2.3 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest a total around 9-10, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Bohemians average 6.1 corners per match, Sligo average 3.5.
- Bohemians' home matches average 9.4 total corners.
- Sligo's away matches average 8.6 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are near the 3.5 line, making this a balanced market with no strong edge.
- Bohemians average 2.1 yellow cards per match, Sligo average 1.4.
- Bohemians' home matches average 3.4 total cards.
- Sligo's away matches average 3.1 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77.5% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bohemians have been moderately reliable on Over 2.5 goals

Bohemians have fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions. Their average estimated probability was 58.6%, close to the actual 57% fulfilment rate. At home they fulfilled 3 of 4, while away only 1 of 3, suggesting stronger over performance at Dalymount Park.

Recent evidence for Bohemians7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League