Sport Recife3America MG0

HT 2–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 17–18On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 5–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Sport Recife are promotion-chasing but have not beaten América-MG at home since 2010, making the outright win a trap at 1.65.

The best value lies in the first-half draw at 2.25 (55% model probability vs 44% implied) and over 4.5 cards at 1.91 (60% vs 52.4%). Avoid the double chance at 1.17 and the over 2.5 goals, as both are overpriced relative to the model.

Context

Sport sit eighth on 35 points, one point behind sixth-placed CRB.
- The club explicitly frames this home match as a chance to regain G-6 ground.
- Manager Gilmar Dal Pozzo remains under a stability mandate after two coaching changes in 2026.
Sport’s last home win in this fixture was 1-0 on 31 August 2010.
- América-MG are 4W-2D in the six subsequent Recife meetings.
- Recent H2H at Sport: 1-1 (2024), 2-3 (2021), 0-2 (2019), 0-2 (2018), 1-1 (2016), 1-3 (2013).
Sport home record: 4W-7D-1L in 12 matches.
- Only one home defeat all season.
- Seven draws in 12 home games indicate a tendency to drop points.
América-MG away record: 1W-2D-9L in 12 matches.
- They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded away.
- They beat Fortaleza 3-0 away on 16 June 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's strong home form and America MG's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, but the H2H psychology (no home win since 2010) tempers confidence.
- Sport Recife home record: 4W-7D-1L in 12 home matches, 19 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- America MG away record: 1W-2D-9L in 12 away matches, 8 goals scored, 22 conceded.
- Sport Recife last 5 form: LWWDD (8 points from 15).
- America MG last 5 form: LLLWL (3 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSport RecifeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's home resilience (only one loss) and America MG's away struggles make the double chance highly likely, despite the historical H2H disadvantage.
- Sport Recife home record: 4W-7D-1L (only 1 home loss in 12).
- America MG away record: 1W-2D-9L (9 losses in 12 away).
- H2H last 6 at Sport: 4 America MG wins, 2 draws, 0 Sport wins.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSport Recife or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles and the H2H shows a strong pattern of level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- Sport Recife leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- America MG leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- H2H last 5: half-time results: D, D, D, D, D (all draws).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Sport Recife win is plausible given America MG's second-half collapses, but the specific combination is not strongly supported.
- Sport Recife often draw at half time (40% of matches).
- Sport Recife home win rate: 33% (4 wins in 12).
- America MG away loss rate: 75% (9 losses in 12).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Sport RecifeEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent H2H has been low-scoring, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.
- Sport Recife average total goals per match: 2.2 (1.1 scored + 1.1 conceded).
- America MG average total goals per match: 2.3 (0.8 scored + 1.5 conceded).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 0-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3, 1-0 (3 of 5 under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
America MG's scoring struggles (0.8 goals per game) and Sport's decent defensive home record make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- America MG failed to score in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Sport Recife kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.
- Sport Recife first half goals average: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- America MG first half goals average: 0.5 scored, 0.3 conceded.
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 3 of 5 matches (0, 1, 0, 1, 0).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
America MG's defensive frailty in the second half could lead to more goals after the break, but the overall low scoring trend makes this a low-confidence call.
- Sport Recife second half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.6 conceded.
- America MG second half goals average: 0.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
- America MG concede heavily in second halves (1.2 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average over 10 total corners, but the variance is high and the line is close to the average, making this a low-confidence over bet.
- Sport Recife average corners per match: 4.9, opponent corners: 5.9 (total 10.8).
- America MG average corners per match: 4.4, opponent corners: 6.3 (total 10.7).
- Combined average total corners: 10.75.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average total cards is right at the line, but both teams have shown disciplinary issues in recent matches, supporting a slight lean to over 4.5 cards.
- Sport Recife average yellow cards per match: 2.6, opponent: 2.1 (total 4.7).
- America MG average yellow cards per match: 2.3, opponent: 2.0 (total 4.3).
- Combined average total cards: 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and ignores the H2H anomaly.

Prediction history

Sport Recife has been reliable in Under 2.5 goals projections

Sport Recife has fulfilled 6 of 9 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 62.4%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, indicating performance slightly above expectation. At home, Sport Recife has fulfilled 3 of 5 such predictions, while away they have fulfilled 3 of 4.

Recent evidence for Sport Recife9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B