La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Osasuna0Levante0

HT 0–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 12–11On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 12:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Osasuna are overpriced as favourites at 1.78 (our model: 42% vs implied 56%), so avoid the match winner and double chance markets.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.88, but it's marginal (+1.8 points); all other markets are efficiently priced or heavily juiced.

Context

Osasuna appointed Ramis on a two-year deal in June 2026, replacing Alessio Lisci.
- This is only Osasuna's second league fixture under Ramis.
- The team's recent home form is inconsistent (2W-1D-2L in last five home La Liga games).
Osasuna play Levante on Monday 24 August, then travel to Celta on Thursday 27 August.
- The club released a statement criticizing the short rest period.
- Rotation or reduced intensity in the second half is possible.
Levante lost 0-3 at Espanyol on 16 August 2026.
- Last season's away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- They scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
Osasuna won 2-0 at home on 8 December 2025.
- Levante won 3-2 at home on 8 May 2026.
- Osasuna also won 3-1 at home in March 2022.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Osasuna

1.78fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Osasuna's home advantage and recent H2H win are offset by their poor recent home form and Levante's competitive away record, making the 1.78 price too short.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Osasuna or Draw

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Osasuna's home resilience and Levante's away struggles support the double chance, but the 1.22 price leaves no value given our 68% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.91fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Recent scoring trends and the last H2H result (5 goals) point toward a moderately high-scoring game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows frequent first-half scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a recent H2H home win give Osasuna a slight edge, but their inconsistent home form and new coach keep confidence medium.
- Osasuna won 2-0 at home against Levante in December 2025.
- Osasuna's last 5 home La Liga matches: 2W, 1D, 2L, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
- Levante lost their only away league match this season 0-3 at Espanyol.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home resilience and Levante's away struggles support a double chance for the hosts.
- Osasuna have avoided defeat in 3 of their last 5 home La Liga matches.
- Levante have lost 3 of their last 4 away league matches dating back to last season.
- H2H at Osasuna: Osasuna won 2-0 in Dec 2025 and 3-1 in Mar 2022.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, and H2H history shows a tendency for level first halves.
- Osasuna's first-half record at home: 2W, 2D, 1L in last 5.
- Levante's first-half record away: 1W, 2D, 2L in last 5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is possible but not strongly supported by recent form or H2H.
- Osasuna have drawn 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Levante have drawn 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- The last H2H draw was in 2021.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring ability, and H2H history suggests goals at both ends.
- Osasuna have scored in 4 of their last 5 home La Liga matches.
- Levante have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent scoring trends and the last H2H result point toward a moderately high-scoring game.
- Osasuna's last 5 home La Liga matches averaged 2.4 total goals.
- Levante's last 5 away matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- The most recent H2H meeting produced 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows frequent first-half scoring.
- Osasuna's first-half goals per game average is 0.3, but they conceded 0.6 first-half goals per game.
- Levante's first-half goals per game average is 0.6, with 0.7 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' defensive lapses, but confidence is low due to limited direct data.
- Osasuna's second-half goal difference is slightly negative in recent home matches.
- Levante's away matches often open up after halftime, with 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- The last H2H meeting had 3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner totals hover around the line, making this a coin-flip with slight lean over based on home/away splits.
- Osasuna average 4.6 corners per game overall, but 5.2 at home.
- Levante average 5.6 corners per game overall, but 4.8 away.
- Combined average corners in Osasuna home games: 9.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderately card-heavy match, especially with Osasuna's aggressive style.
- Osasuna average 2.5 yellow cards per game, Levante 1.9.
- Osasuna's home matches average 4.8 total cards.
- Levante's away matches average 4.2 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Osasuna has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

Osasuna's Over 4.5 cards prediction has been fulfilled in only 2 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 64%, but the actual fulfillment rate is 33%, below the expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all 2 fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Osasuna6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga