Suwon2Gimhae0

HT 1–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 16:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon are strong favourites at home against struggling Gimhae, with a 72% win probability and a small edge at 1.45.

Avoid first-half markets, especially Over 0.5 goals (1.22) and BTTS No (1.20), which are heavily overpriced. The best value is backing Suwon to win, but the margin is thin.

Context

Suwon home record: 4W 4D 0L, 18 goals scored, 8 conceded.
- Gimhae away record: 2W 4D 5L, 10 goals scored, 17 conceded.
- Suwon have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- Gimhae have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches.
Suwon sit 4th with 37 points, 25 points ahead of Gimhae.
- K League 2 top two earn automatic promotion; Suwon are in the playoff mix.
- Gimhae are 17th with 12 points, facing relegation pressure.
- Suwon's recent form (DWWDW) suggests they are pushing for results.
Gimhae failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Gimhae average 0.45 first-half goals away from home.
- Gimhae have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 of their last 10 away matches.
- Suwon have conceded in 6 of their last 8 home matches, but often after taking the lead.
Suwon scored 0 first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Suwon average 1.0 first-half goals at home, but the distribution is uneven.
- Gimhae have conceded only 0.45 first-half goals away on average.
- Suwon led at half-time in only 50% of home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Suwon at half-time / Suwon at full-time

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Suwon led at half-time and won in 4 of 8 home matches, but the market price already reflects that tendency, leaving no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's first-half scoring tendency and Gimhae's first-half defensive lapses make a first-half goal likely, but odds are heavily juiced.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.20fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making it unlikely both score before half-time, but odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong home form and superior league position, combined with Gimhae's poor away record, make a home win highly likely.
- Suwon are 4th with 37 points, Gimhae are 17th with 12 points (25-point gap).
- Suwon home record: 4W 4D 0L, 18 goals scored, 8 conceded in 8 matches.
- Gimhae away record: 2W 4D 5L, 10 goals scored, 17 conceded in 11 matches.
- Suwon last 5 form: DWWDW; Gimhae last 5 form: DLDDW.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's unbeaten home record and Gimhae's poor away form make a Suwon win or draw extremely likely.
- Suwon are unbeaten at home this season (4W 4D).
- Gimhae have won only 2 of 11 away matches.
- Suwon have lost only 3 of 20 league matches overall.
- Gimhae have lost 12 of 20 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuwon or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's tendency to start strongly at home and Gimhae's first-half struggles give Suwon an edge in the first half.
- Suwon led at half-time in 40% of their matches overall, 50% at home.
- Gimhae trailed at half-time in 33% of their matches overall, 36% away.
- Suwon have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Gimhae have lost the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong home form and ability to lead at half-time make a half-time/full-time double a plausible outcome.
- Suwon have led at half-time and won the match in 4 of their 8 home matches.
- Gimhae have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 4 of their 11 away matches.
- Suwon's home record: 4 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses.
- Gimhae's away record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSuwon/SuwonEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Suwon are strong at home, winning both halves is a less common outcome, hence low confidence.
- Suwon have won both halves in 2 of their 8 home matches.
- Gimhae have lost both halves in 3 of their 11 away matches.
- Suwon average 1.0 first-half goals and 1.25 second-half goals at home.
- Gimhae average 0.45 first-half goals and 0.55 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonYesEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's first-half resilience at home and Gimhae's inability to lead early make Suwon or draw a strong first-half double chance.
- Suwon have led at half-time in 40% of matches, drawn at half-time in 27%.
- Gimhae have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches, drawn at half-time in 47%.
- Suwon have not lost the first half in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Gimhae have not won the first half in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSuwon or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's high scoring at home and Gimhae's defensive frailty suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Suwon average 2.1 goals scored per match overall, 2.25 at home.
- Gimhae concede 1.6 goals per match overall, 1.55 away.
- Suwon's last 5 home matches: 2-2, 3-2, 5-0, 0-0, 3-1 (4 of 5 over 2.5).
- Gimhae's last 5 away matches: 0-1, 2-2, 1-0, 1-3, 1-4 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, making BTTS a reasonable outcome.
- Suwon have conceded in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Gimhae have scored in 8 of their last 11 away matches.
- Suwon's last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 3 of them.
- Gimhae's last 5 away matches: both teams scored in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's first-half scoring tendency and Gimhae's first-half defensive lapses make a first-half goal likely.
- Suwon average 0.8 first-half goals per match overall, 1.0 at home.
- Gimhae average 0.5 first-half goals per match overall, 0.45 away.
- Suwon have scored in the first half in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Gimhae have conceded in the first half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in second-half goals, with Suwon's attacking output and Gimhae's defensive weakness supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Suwon average 1.3 second-half goals per match overall.
- Gimhae concede 1.0 second-half goals per match overall.
- Suwon's last 5 matches: 2, 1, 1, 2, 2 second-half goals (avg 1.6).
- Gimhae's last 5 matches: 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 second-half goals conceded (avg 1.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low first-half scoring rates, making it unlikely that both will score before half-time.
- Suwon average 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Gimhae average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.6 first-half goals conceded.
- In Suwon's last 10 matches, both teams scored in the first half only 3 times.
- In Gimhae's last 10 matches, both teams scored in the first half only 2 times.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Based on general league trends and Suwon's attacking intent, over 8.5 corners is a slight lean, but low confidence due to missing corner data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Suwon's attacking style and home dominance typically generate more corners.
- Gimhae's defensive posture away from home often leads to conceding corners.
- League average corners per match in K League 2 is approximately 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%