Suwon Bluewings1Gimhae0

HT 0–0Fri 7 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 17:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon Bluewings are clear favorites to beat bottom-side Gimhae, but the 1.25 odds offer no value given our 68% win probability estimate.

The best betting edge is both teams to score at 2.10, with a 55% estimated probability versus a 47.6% implied chance, though confidence is only medium. Avoid short-odds markets like match winner, double chance, and total goals lines where the market has overpriced the likelihood.

Context

Suwon lead the league by one point after 19 matches, with 13 games remaining.
- The 2026 K League 2 rules grant automatic promotion to the top two finishers.
- Suwon are unlikely to rotate heavily given the narrow margin and the importance of every point.
Gimhae have won only 2 of 10 away matches this season, with 4 draws and 4 losses.
- They have conceded 16 goals in those 10 away games, averaging 1.6 goals against per match.
- This is Gimhae's first K League 2 campaign after moving up from K3 in 2026.
Suwon's home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss from 9 matches.
- In their last 5 home matches, Suwon have 2 wins and 3 draws.
- Suwon have conceded in 5 of their last 9 home games, despite 4 clean sheets overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Suwon Bluewings

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's strong home record and Gimhae's poor away form justify favouritism, but the odds are too short relative to our 68% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Suwon Bluewings or Draw

1.07fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's home resilience makes a double chance appealing, but the market has priced it almost perfectly, leaving no edge.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.13fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 88.5%

−23.5ppshort

Gimhae have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 of their last 10 away matches, and Suwon's home defense is solid.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's superior league position, strong home form, and high motivation to defend their promotion lead make them clear favorites against a struggling Gimhae side.
- Suwon Bluewings are top of K League 2 with 37 points from 19 matches, while Gimhae are bottom with 11 points from 18 matches.
- Suwon have a strong home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 9 home games, conceding only 6 goals.
- Gimhae have the worst away record in the league: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses in 10 away games, with a -6 goal difference.
- Suwon won the only H2H meeting 3-0 away at Gimhae on 21 March 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuwon BluewingsEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Suwon's strong home form and Gimhae's poor away record, a Suwon win or draw is highly likely.
- Suwon have lost only 1 of 9 home matches this season.
- Gimhae have won only 2 of 10 away matches, with 4 draws.
- Suwon's home goal difference is +5, while Gimhae's away goal difference is -6.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuwon Bluewings or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's tendency to start strongly at home and Gimhae's poor first-half record away from home give Suwon a decent chance of leading at the break.
- Suwon have led at halftime in 40% of their matches this season, compared to Gimhae's 20%.
- Suwon have trailed at halftime in only 13% of matches, while Gimhae have trailed in 40%.
- In the last 5 home matches, Suwon have been leading at halftime in 2 and drawing in 3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSuwon BluewingsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Suwon are favorites, the specific HT/FT double is less certain due to the possibility of a draw at halftime or a second-half comeback, but it remains a plausible outcome.
- Suwon have led at halftime and won the match in 3 of their 9 home games.
- Gimhae have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 4 of their 10 away games.
- Suwon's overall win rate when leading at halftime is 80%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSuwon Bluewings / Suwon BluewingsEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher-scoring affairs, and Gimhae's defensive vulnerabilities on the road increase the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Suwon's last 5 home matches have averaged 2.6 total goals.
- Gimhae's last 5 away matches have averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Gimhae have conceded 16 goals in 10 away games (1.6 per game), while Suwon have scored 11 in 9 home games (1.2 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Suwon are favorites, Gimhae have consistently found the net away from home, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Gimhae have scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
- Suwon have conceded in 5 of their last 9 home matches.
- In the only H2H, Suwon kept a clean sheet, but Gimhae have since shown they can score on the road.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's solid home defense and Gimhae's occasional struggles to score away give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet, but Gimhae's recent away scoring form reduces confidence.
- Suwon have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 home matches this season.
- Gimhae have failed to score in 3 of their last 10 away matches.
- Suwon kept a clean sheet in the only H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimhae not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's recent home scoring form and Gimhae's leaky away defense suggest Suwon are likely to score at least twice.
- Suwon have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Suwon average 1.2 goals per home game this season, but recent form shows an uptick.
- Gimhae have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSuwon Bluewings over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's low away scoring output and Suwon's strong home defense make it unlikely that Gimhae will score multiple goals.
- Gimhae have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 of their last 10 away matches.
- Gimhae average 1.0 goals per away game this season.
- Suwon have conceded more than 1 goal in only 1 of their last 9 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGimhae under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in recent matches, making it likely that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.
- Suwon's last 5 home matches have seen a first-half goal in 4 of them.
- Gimhae's last 5 away matches have seen a first-half goal in all 5.
- Suwon average 0.5 first-half goals per game, while Gimhae concede 0.7 first-half goals per away game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open in matches involving these teams, but the low confidence reflects the variability in second-half scoring.
- Suwon's last 5 home matches have averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Gimhae's last 5 away matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Suwon have scored 60% of their home goals in the second half, while Gimhae have conceded 65% of their away goals after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, league averages and the attacking intent of both teams suggest a moderate likelihood of over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs.
- K League 2 matches average around 9.5 corners per game based on league-wide trends.
- Suwon's home matches and Gimhae's away matches typically see above-average corner counts due to attacking styles.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Suwon Bluewings have struggled to convert win projections

Suwon Bluewings have fulfilled just 1 of 4 recent win predictions. The two draws and one loss among the misses highlight a tendency to drop points even when favoured. At home they have won 1 of 2 such matches, while away they have failed to win both, suggesting location may influence their reliability.

Recent evidence for Suwon Bluewings4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·K League 2