Gremio Novorizontino SP3America MG0

HT 1–0Thu 20 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 07:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Novorizontino are strong at home and America MG struggle away, but the market has already priced that in.

The best value is in Over 2.5 goals (edge +10pts) and BTTS Yes (edge +6pts). Avoid the home win and double chance markets as they offer no value.

Context

Home record: 5W 2D 3L in last 10 home matches.
- Lost 0-1 to Juventude and 0-1 to Criciuma in recent home games.
- Scored 14 and conceded 11 in those 10 home matches.
Away record: 1W 2D 8L in 11 away matches.
- Scored only 8 goals and conceded 19 on the road.
- Beat Fortaleza 3-0 away on 16 June 2026.
Last 5 H2H: Novorizontino 2W 3D 0L.
- Won 3-0 away on 12 April 2026.
- Three of the last five meetings ended with over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Gremio Novorizontino SP

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Novorizontino's strong home record and America MG's away struggles, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gremio Novorizontino SP or Draw

1.11fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90.1%

−10.1ppshort

The combination of Novorizontino's solid home form and America MG's away struggles makes the double chance a high-probability outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals are common.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home record and America MG's poor away form, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win likely.
- Home form: 5W 2D 3L in last 10 home matches, 14 goals scored, 11 conceded
- Away form: 1W 2D 8L in 11 away matches, 8 goals scored, 19 conceded
- H2H last 5: Novorizontino 2W 3D 0L, including 3-0 away win in April 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Novorizontino's solid home form and America MG's away struggles makes the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Novorizontino unbeaten in last 5 H2H meetings (2W 3D)
- America MG have lost 8 of 11 away matches this season
- Novorizontino have lost only 3 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's slight edge in first-half performance and home advantage give them a modest chance to lead at the break.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 27% of matches
- America MG trailed at half-time in 20% of matches
- H2H: Novorizontino led at half-time in 2 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is possible but not highly probable given Novorizontino's inconsistent first halves.
- Novorizontino have won 5 of 10 home matches
- America MG have lost 8 of 11 away matches
- H2H: Novorizontino won both halves in 1 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonGremio Novorizontino SP / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown vulnerability defensively, and recent H2H meetings have often produced goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Novorizontino average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match overall
- America MG average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match overall
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's consistent scoring at home and America MG's leaky away defense make both teams scoring plausible.
- Novorizontino have scored in 8 of last 10 home matches
- America MG have conceded in 10 of 11 away matches
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals are common.
- Novorizontino average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- America MG average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less certain, but America MG's defensive lapses after the break could lead to goals.
- Novorizontino average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded
- America MG average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and H2H matches have averaged just under 10 corners.
- Novorizontino average 5.2 corners per match, opponents 6.0
- America MG average 4.4 corners per match, opponents 5.5
- H2H last 5: average total corners 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match could see a moderate number of cards given both teams' disciplinary records, but it's not a strong trend.
- Novorizontino average 1.8 yellow cards per match, opponents 2.5
- America MG average 2.5 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.8
- H2H last 5: average total cards 4.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP has rarely seen over 4.5 cards in recent matches

In 7 recent matches, Gremio Novorizontino SP's over 4.5 cards predictions were fulfilled only once. The average estimated probability was 60%, but the actual fulfillment rate was just 14%. Notably, all three home matches failed to reach over 4.5 cards, while the single fulfilled prediction occurred away.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B