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Predictions graded

Adrian Mannarino #83France1Nikoloz Basilashvili #124Georgia0

Sets 6-3 · 2-2Wed 7 Oct 2026, 05:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–10%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAdrian Mannarino · 41 places

Adrian Mannarino

France

Mannarino, 38, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached career-high No. 17 in January 2024. He has said he enjoys playing on all surfaces.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #124
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 02:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili plays a third straight day after six sets of qualifying, while Mannarino has not competed since 29 September; the fresher man is also the higher-ranked one, yet Basilashvili's hard-court form (7-3 in his last 10) is better.

He is the likelier winner, but 1.95 on him offers no clear edge. Elsewhere there is something: Under 2.5 sets at 1.55, Basilashvili 2-0 at 3.2, second-set Over 9.5 games at 1.6 and Basilashvili to take set two at 1.9.

Context

Basilashvili had to win two full-length qualifying matches to reach the main draw. That route gives him competitive sharpness and two days of familiarity with the Shanghai courts that a direct entrant does not get. It also leaves him with six sets in two days immediately before a first-round match, so the value of that sharpness depends on how long this match runs. Both qualifying wins came against opponents ranked outside the top 190, which limits how much they say about his level against a top-100 opponent.
- Basilashvili beat Andre Ilagan 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5 in the first qualifying round on 5 October.
- Basilashvili beat Liam Draxl 5-7 7-5 6-4 in the qualifying final .
- Both qualifying wins required three sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 02:08 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 6 Oct 2026
The qualifying final turned on three points at 5-4 in the second set, so Basilashvili reached the main draw from the edge of elimination rather than from a controlled win. That makes the two-hour-43-minute effort inside his two-day qualifying load more significant than the scoreline alone suggests. Draxl is ranked outside the top 200, so the escape also shows that Basilashvili's current level was not enough to separate cleanly from a lower-ranked opponent.
- Draxl led by a set and reached 5-4 in the second set holding three match points.
- Basilashvili won the match 5-7 7-5 6-4.
- The match lasted two hours 43 minutes.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest
The two players arrive on very different schedules: Basilashvili has played six sets across Monday and Tuesday qualifying, while Mannarino last competed on 29 September. If the first round becomes long and physical, the rested player is better placed to sustain his level deep into the match. The counterweight is that Basilashvili has already adjusted to the court and conditions with two competitive matches this week, while Mannarino has not played for more than a week.
- Basilashvili completed qualifying matches on 5 and, both in three sets.
- Mannarino's last completed match before this fixture was on 29 September.
- This first-round match is Basilashvili's third match in three days.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Basilashvili's Chengdu semifinal shows that his Shanghai qualifying runs are part of a sustained hard-court sequence rather than an isolated week, with main-draw wins over three opponents ranked inside the top 105. That record supports his case as the more in-form player here despite a ranking 41 places below Mannarino's. The run also matters for workload, because it means his heavy recent schedule began three weeks before this match rather than this week alone. The semifinal still ended in a three-set loss from a set up against a higher-ranked opponent.
- Basilashvili entered the Chengdu main draw as a qualifier.
- He beat Kecmanovic, van de Zandschulp and Brooksby in the main draw.
- He lost the semifinal to Davidovich Fokina after winning the opening set.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Basilashvili has the better recent hard-court form despite a heavy workload.
- Basilashvili is 7-3 on hard in his last 10 matches.
- He won two three-set qualifying matches on 5 and 6 October.
- Mannarino is 6-8 on hard in his last 14 matches.
- Mannarino lost his last match 0-2 to Pablo Carreno-Busta.
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Second sets in their recent matches have often been long.
- Mannarino's set2 average is 10.3 games.
- Basilashvili's set2 average is 10.7 games.
- Basilashvili's last six set2s all had at least 10 games.
- Mannarino had 3 of 6 set2s with at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Basilashvili rarely loses by more than two games on hard courts.
- Basilashvili lost by only three games in his recent defeat.
- He won all five recent wins by at least two games.
- Mannarino won by four and five games in two wins.
- Mannarino lost by five or more games in three of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableNikoloz Basilashvili +2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players' first sets usually reach at least ten games.
- Mannarino's set1 average is 10.3 games.
- Basilashvili's set1 average is 10.0 games.
- Mannarino had 4 tiebreaks in 12 set1s.
- Basilashvili had 1 tiebreak in 10 set1s.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Their hard-court averages and frequent straight-set results point to fewer games.
- Mannarino's hard-court matches average 22.4 total games.
- Basilashvili's hard-court matches average 23.8 total games.
- Mannarino has 10 straight-set results in 12 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili has 7 straight-set results in 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 23.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili usually wins the game count when he wins the match.
- Basilashvili won more games in all five of his recent hard-court wins.
- He lost the game count in his recent three-set loss.
- Mannarino won with a negative game margin in one of his last three wins.
- Basilashvili's recent wins came by +2, +3, +4, +4 and +5 games.
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableNikoloz Basilashvili -0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili has covered this line in each of his recent wins.
- In his five recent hard-court wins, Basilashvili's smallest game margin was +2.
- His game margins in wins were +2, +3, +3, +4, +4.
- He lost by three games in his recent defeat.
- Mannarino lost by 5, 6 and 5 games in three of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableNikoloz Basilashvili -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate their recent hard-court records.
- Mannarino has 10 straight-set results in 12 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili has 7 straight-set results in 10 hard-court matches.
- Combined, 17 of 22 recent hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- Mannarino's last match was a straight-set loss.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Basilashvili's second-set record is much better than Mannarino's.
- Basilashvili won set2 in 6 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Mannarino won set2 in 4 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili won set2 in 4 of his last 6 matches.
- Mannarino lost set2 in 4 of his last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Basilashvili has a clear edge in first-set results on hard courts.
- Basilashvili won set1 in 7 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Mannarino won set1 in 6 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili won set1 in 5 of his last 6 matches.
- Mannarino lost set1 in 2 of his last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Nikoloz Basilashvili: 4/10 recent winner projections matched

4 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Nikoloz Basilashvili matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nikoloz Basilashvili10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Matched

20 Jul·ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Tiago Torres won

Missed

7 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

55%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

62%probability

Elias Ymer won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-2 6-4Adrian Mannarino#83vNikoloz Basilashvili#124Nov 1, 2021

L7-6(7) 7-6(3)Adrian Mannarino#83vNikoloz Basilashvili#124Feb 8, 2017

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Adrian Mannarino

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#42Denis Shapovalov

6-4 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(9) 6-2#214Juncheng Shang

6-3 7-5#571Matisse Bobichon

6-2 6-4#391Dan Added

6-3 6-1 6-1#22Alexander Bublik

4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-1 7-6(5)#87Lorenzo Sonego

6-1 6-4#42Denis Shapovalov

7-6(3) 6-4#96Jacob Fearnley

6-4 7-6(3)#35Alex Michelsen

7-5 6-4#16Learner Tien

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#184Alexis Galarneau

Nikoloz Basilashvili

8W 7L

5-7 7-5 6-4#219Liam Draxl 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#194Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#26Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#102Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#41Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#147Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#607Naoya Honda

6-3 7-6(1)#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#60Jaime Faria

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#286Mili Poljicak

6-3 3-6 6-2#754Michael Vrbensky

6-4 6-2#365Tiago Torres

7-5 3-6 6-4#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAdrian MannarinoMannarino

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Nikoloz Basilashvili carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Mannarino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.9%+5.2pp54.7%

1st Serve Won72.8%+1.0pp73.8%

2nd Serve Won51.3%—50.8%

Aces / Match4.8+3.68.4

Double Faults / Match2.31.8 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+4.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.2%+1.7pp36.9%

Break Pts Saved55.3%+5.2pp60.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.0%+2.0pp51.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.9%1st Serve In+5.2pp54.7%

72.8%1st Serve Won+1.0pp73.8%

51.3%2nd Serve Won—50.8%

4.8Aces / Match+3.68.4

2.3Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+4.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

35.2%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp36.9%

55.3%Break Pts Saved+5.2pp60.5%

Points · 0–1

49.0%Total Pts Won+2.0pp51.0%

Adrian Mannarino

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Over 9.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili +2.5

Over 9.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Under 23.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili 2-0

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stat Battle