Nikoloz Basilashvili #118Georgia11 – 2Elias Ymer #182Sweden2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The balanced stats and recent match lengths indicate a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Basilashvili's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Ymer's last 5 completed matches averaged 20.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• H2H matches averaged 20.3 games, but the most recent (2026) ended in retirement after 20 games.
• Both players have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting tight sets and potential tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Ymer's ability to stay within 3.5 games in most recent matches makes this handicap a solid play.

• Ymer's last 5 losses: margins of 2, 5, 6, 6, and 5 games; only one loss by more than 3.5 games.
• Basilashvili's last 5 wins: margins of 4, 4, 1, 7, and 3 games; only two wins by more than 3.5 games.
• H2H matches: margins of 3 (ret.), 2, and 5 games; only one match with a margin over 3.5.
• Ymer's grass-court experience and competitive recent form suggest he can keep it close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Basilashvili's strong first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting quickly support him taking the opener.

• Basilashvili has won the first set in 84% of his career matches when winning the match.
• In his last 5 matches, Basilashvili won the first set in 3 of 4 completed matches (excluding retirement).
• Ymer lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked Searle.
• Basilashvili's first-serve win percentage (68.4%) is slightly higher than Ymer's (69.5%) on grass, but his overall game translates better to quick starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The grass surface and both players' serving profiles make over 12.5 aces likely in a competitive match.

• Basilashvili averages 5.4 aces per match, Ymer 5.7; combined average ~11.1.
• On grass, ace rates typically increase; Basilashvili's career ace rate is 5.4%, Ymer's 5.7%.
• In their H2H, total aces were 19 in 3 matches (avg 6.3 per match), but grass should boost this.
• Recent grass matches for both players have seen higher ace counts (e.g., Ymer hit 8 aces vs. Visker).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Basilashvili's high double fault rate and the grass surface should push the total over 7.5.

• Basilashvili averages 5.2 double faults per match, Ymer 4.1; combined average 9.3.
• Basilashvili's double fault rate (5.2%) is higher than Ymer's (4.1%), but both are prone to errors under pressure.
• In H2H, Basilashvili had 18 double faults in 3 matches (avg 6), Ymer 7 (avg 2.3).
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and aggressive serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of the match and both players' tendency to play tiebreaks make one likely.

• Basilashvili has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
• Ymer has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
• H2H: no tiebreaks in 3 matches, but current form suggests tighter sets.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 48-57%, indicating they often reach breakers.