Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Vilius Gaubas: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Basilashvili's recent high-level clay wins and greater experience against top competition give him a slight edge over Gaubas, whose form has been inconsistent.
- Basilashvili has won 7 of his last 15 matches, including a Masters 1000 fourth round on clay in May 2026 (beat Shelton, Nakashima).
- Gaubas is 13-15 on clay in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside the top 100 (Damas, Skatov, Brunclik).
- Basilashvili's career clay win percentage is 52.9%, with 195 wins; Gaubas has 161 clay wins but at a lower level.
- H2H: Gaubas won their only meeting in 2024 on clay, but Basilashvili's recent form against top-100 opponents is stronger.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been high-scoring, and their H2H history indicates a competitive, multi-break encounter likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Basilashvili's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 games per match.
- Gaubas's last 5 matches have averaged 24.2 games per match, with three going over 21.5 games.
- Their only H2H match had 28 games (4-6, 6-0, 7-5).
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40%, suggesting multiple breaks and extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas's ability to stay competitive in games, even in losses, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap against Basilashvili.
- Gaubas has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches.
- Basilashvili's wins have often been by narrow margins; his last 5 wins had an average margin of 3.6 games.
- The H2H match was decided by 3 games (Gaubas won by 3).
- Gaubas's return points won percentage (41%) is higher than Basilashvili's (38%), suggesting he can keep games close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonVilius Gaubas +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve early, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Basilashvili's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.8 games.
- Gaubas's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.4 games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 10 games.
- Both players have first-serve percentages above 59%, which can lead to longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup, combined with both players' comfort in deciders, makes a three-set match more likely than a straight-sets result.
- Basilashvili has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 15 matches.
- Gaubas has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches.
- Their only H2H match went three sets.
- Both players have strong deciding-set records (Basilashvili 57%, Gaubas 63%).
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's tendency to start strong in recent wins and Gaubas's occasional slow starts suggest a narrow edge for Basilashvili in the first set.
- Basilashvili has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 wins, including against Shelton and Nakashima.
- Gaubas has lost the first set in 5 of his last 10 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Basilashvili's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, indicating he often capitalizes when winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' serving stats and recent tiebreak frequency suggests at least one set is likely to go to a tiebreak.
- Basilashvili has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches.
- Gaubas has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 15 matches.
- Basilashvili's career tiebreak win percentage is 57%, indicating he often reaches tiebreaks.
- Both players have strong first-serve percentages, which can lead to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Nikoloz Basilashvili #111Georgia1Vilius Gaubas #129Lithuania2

Player Profiles

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Vilius Gaubas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Vilius Gaubas