Raul Brancaccio vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Basilashvili's superior recent form and higher-quality wins on clay give him a clear edge over Brancaccio, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents.
- Basilashvili has a 10-7 clay record in 2026 with wins over top-100 players like Shelton (rank 5) and Sonego (rank 72) in recent weeks.
- Brancaccio is 17-14 on clay in 2026 but has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, all against opponents ranked outside the top 100.
- Basilashvili's recent form includes a Rome Masters run where he beat Ben Shelton, indicating high confidence and peak performance.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's competitive losses and Basilashvili's occasional narrow wins make Brancaccio +3.5 games a solid bet.
- Brancaccio's last 5 losses were by an average margin of 4.4 games, but 3 of those were within 3.5 games.
- Basilashvili's last 5 wins were by an average margin of 4.2 games, but against weaker opposition.
- Brancaccio has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches against similar-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRaul Brancaccio +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players involved in longer contests, making over 21.5 games likely in this Bo3 match.
- Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Basilashvili's last 5 matches averaged 23.2 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40-45%, suggesting competitive games and potential tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends show both players involved in tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games probable.
- Basilashvili's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Brancaccio's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-68%, leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to the first set, second-set trends indicate a high likelihood of over 9.5 games.
- Basilashvili's last 5 second sets averaged 10.0 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Brancaccio's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often forcing extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's strong start tendency and Brancaccio's recent slow starts make Basilashvili likely to take the opening set.
- Basilashvili has won the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches, including against top players like Shelton and Sonego.
- Brancaccio has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, often falling behind early.
- Basilashvili's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, showing he capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's strong serve and Brancaccio's occasional aces should push the total over 7.5.
- Basilashvili averages 5.4 aces per match, with a higher ace rate on clay due to his powerful serve.
- Brancaccio averages 2.8 aces per match, but combined they often exceed 7.5 in recent matches.
- In their last 5 matches, Basilashvili hit 6+ aces in 3 matches, and Brancaccio hit 3+ in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' high double-fault rates make over 5.5 double faults likely in this match.
- Basilashvili averages 5.2 double faults per match, with a high double-fault rate on clay.
- Brancaccio averages 4.7 double faults per match, and both players have double-fault rates above 4.5 per match.
- In their last 5 matches, Basilashvili had 5+ double faults in 4 matches, and Brancaccio had 4+ in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of strong serving and competitive sets makes a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Basilashvili has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches, with a 57% career tiebreak win rate.
- Brancaccio has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches, with a 55% career tiebreak win rate.
- Both players have strong serve stats that can lead to tight sets and tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Raul Brancaccio #248Italy2Nikoloz Basilashvili #112Georgia0

Player Profiles

Raul Brancaccio

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Raul Brancaccio

Nikoloz Basilashvili