ChinaATP ShanghaiFinished

Predictions graded

Andre Ilagan #243United States1Nikoloz Basilashvili #132Georgia2

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 5-7Mon 5 Oct 2026, 04:12 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNikoloz Basilashvili · 111 places

Andre Ilagan

United States

The American is 25 and left-handed. ITF listed him at No. 248 on 20 July 2026; structured match data lists No. 243. His recorded professional singles results are predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #248 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili brings five straight-set hard-court wins over higher-ranked opponents into this Shanghai qualifying opener; Ilagan is 9-6 on hard over 15 matches and has won two of his last four.

Basilashvili winning is the likely outcome. The prices worth taking are him by three games or more at 1.60, straight sets at 1.44 and a 2-0 win at 1.90; the 1.35 match price and the 1.44 set prices are too short.

Context

Basilashvili's hard-court sample is small but one-directional: when he has won, he has not dropped a set, and the eight-match aggregate excludes one retirement.
Five of his eight hard-court matches ended 2-0 in his favour, which is why straight sets and a 2-0 result carry support here, but the same record contains two 0-2 losses, so this is a tendency across eight matches rather than a guarantee.
- Hard-court sample: 8 matches, 11 Aug–28 Sep 2026, 5 wins and 3 losses, with 1 retirement excluded.
- Scorelines in that sample: five 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
Ilagan has been competitive enough in this window to force deciders, though he has also lost four of those 15 matches in straight sets.
Six three-set matches in 15 is the main argument against a quick finish, and Basilashvili's own eight-match record includes two straight-set losses, so the surface sample cuts both ways.
- Hard-court sample: 15 completed matches, 5 Aug–2 Oct 2026, 9-6 record, 0 retirements excluded.
- Scorelines: five 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses; 7 of the 15 matches included a tiebreak.
It is the only defeat in Basilashvili's six most recent hard-court matches, and the only one of them that went to three sets.
It shows the level Basilashvili was competing at immediately before Shanghai, and it is also the one three-set match in his recent run, a reminder that his straight-set pattern can break.
- 28 Sep 2026: lost 1-2 (6-4, 4-6, 3-6) to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 28, on hard court.
- Basilashvili won 13 games to 16 in the match.
Ilagan arrives in Shanghai off a straight-sets defeat in which he won six games, and the second set slipped away quickly.
It is one match rather than a trend, and the two matches before it were straight-set wins, but it is the latest completed evidence on Ilagan heading into this qualifying round.
- 2 Oct 2026: Ilagan lost 5-7, 1-6 to Lloyd Harris, ranked 125, on hard court.
- He won 6 games in the match and lost 13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Basilashvili is higher-ranked and in strong recent form on hard, with straight-set wins over better-ranked opponents.
- Ranked 121; 5-3 on hard in last 8 matches.
- Won five of his last six hard-court matches, including wins over players ranked 40 and 57.
- Set 1 record 6-2 on hard, averaging 5.5 games won to 4.4 lost.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Basilashvili has been winning by comfortable margins, often covering a 2.5-game handicap.
- Basilashvili's average game margin on hard is +4.0 across six recent matches.
- He won five matches by margins of +3, +4, +3, +7, and +10 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNikoloz Basilashvili -2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged over 10 games for both players, with tiebreaks occurring often.
- Set 2 average total games: Basilashvili 10.25, Ilagan 10.27.
- Five of Ilagan's last 15 set 2s had tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average near 10 games, and Basilashvili's recent first sets often went over.
- Combined set 1 average total games: Basilashvili 9.9, Ilagan 9.7.
- Four of Basilashvili's last six set 1s went over 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan has often stayed within five games, and even Basilashvili's loss was a close one.
- Ilagan lost three recent matches by 2, 2, and 7 games; two were within 5.
- Basilashvili's only recent loss came by 3 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndre Ilagan +4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili has been winning efficiently, and Ilagan's latest match was low in games.
- Basilashvili's five hard-court wins this sample averaged 19.8 total games.
- Ilagan lost his most recent match 6-13 in games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Basilashvili's recent matches have been short, and Ilagan has lost his last two straight-set matches.
- Seven of Basilashvili's eight hard matches ended in straight sets.
- Ilagan's last two wins were straight sets, and his last match was 0-2.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Basilashvili has been strong in opening sets, while Ilagan has a losing set 1 record.
- Basilashvili won set 1 in 6 of 8 hard matches.
- Basilashvili averages 5.5 games won to 4.4 lost in set 1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Basilashvili has a solid second-set record, and Ilagan has faded in recent second sets.
- Basilashvili won set 2 in 5 of 8 hard matches.
- Ilagan lost his last two second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Basilashvili has been winning in straight sets, and Ilagan has struggled to stay competitive in recent losses.
- All five of Basilashvili's hard-court wins this sample were 2-0.
- Ilagan lost his most recent match 0-2 and has four 0-2 losses in his last 15.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostNikoloz Basilashvili 2-0Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili has been winning sets without needing tiebreaks, and Ilagan's recent losses were mostly straight sets.
- Basilashvili's eight hard matches produced only three tiebreaks total.
- His recent five wins were all straight sets, four without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance57%

Prediction history

Nikoloz Basilashvili: 4/10 recent winner projections matched

4 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Nikoloz Basilashvili matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nikoloz Basilashvili10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Matched

20 Jul·ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Tiago Torres won

Missed

7 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

55%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

62%probability

Elias Ymer won

Missed

Previous match context available

Andre Ilagan

9W 6L

7-5 6-1#125Lloyd Harris

6-2 7-6(5)#238Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-4 6-3#278Matthew Dellavedova

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#281Petr Bar Biryukov

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#599Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-3#87Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 6-4#202Tristan Boyer

6-2 7-6(6)#125Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 2-6 6-1#153Tristan Schoolkate

2-6 6-4 6-3#333Andres Martin

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#203Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#437Spencer Johnson

7-6(5) 6-4#409Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#158Soon-Woo Kwon

Nikoloz Basilashvili

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-3#28Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#101Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#150Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#601Naoya Honda

6-3 7-6(1)#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#61Jaime Faria

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#293Mili Poljicak

6-3 3-6 6-2#751Michael Vrbensky

6-4 6-2#359Tiago Torres

7-5 3-6 6-4#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 7-6(4)#89Jan Choinski

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#141Vilius Gaubas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAndre IlaganIlagan

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.4%+13.9pp52.5%

1st Serve Won68.9%+6.0pp74.9%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+6.2pp48.8%

Aces / Match5.5+2.47.9

Double Faults / Match2.32.5 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.6%+2.1pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.5%+1.0pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved63.1%+0.9pp62.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—50.6%

Serve · 3–2

66.4%1st Serve In+13.9pp52.5%

68.9%1st Serve Won+6.0pp74.9%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+6.2pp48.8%

5.5Aces / Match+2.47.9

2.3Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won+2.1pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

36.5%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp37.5%

63.1%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp62.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—50.6%

Andre Ilagan

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili -2.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili 2-0

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Andre Ilagan

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stat Battle