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Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France2Tristan Schoolkate #187Australia1

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 6-4Thu 1 Oct 2026, 18:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 68 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 19:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Twelve days after Mayot beat Schoolkate 6-3, 6-3 in Rennes, they meet again for a quarterfinal place on the same indoor hard court.

Mayot is the narrow favourite, yet Schoolkate is higher ranked and has taken 12 of 13 second sets. Three prices hold up: Schoolkate to win the match at 2.3, Schoolkate to take the second set at 2.2, and Schoolkate 2-1 at 4.5. Mayot at 1.6 for the first set asks more than his record justifies.

Context

It is the only previous meeting between the two, decided 6-3, 6-3 by Mayot on an indoor hard court, the same surface used at this event, so it is the most direct recent reference for the matchup. Schoolkate is the higher-ranked player, No. 153 to Mayot's No. 191, and the third seed here, so the straight-set Rennes result runs against the ranking order. The rematch tests whether that one indoor-hard result holds up or was an outlier, particularly since both players have since played a further match in these conditions.
- Mayot won the Rennes semifinal 6-3, 6-3 on an indoor hard court.
- Schoolkate had won three matches at Rennes before that defeat.
- The winner of this last-16 tie advances to the quarterfinals.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Two finals in eight days is the heaviest recent load in this matchup, and it precedes a first round and this last-16 tie on indoor hard courts. The relevant question is whether that volume shows up in the early games, where a fast indoor court rewards the player who starts sharper. Mayot has kept winning through the stretch, however, which is why this reads as a workload question rather than a form decline.
- Mayot lost the Saint-Tropez final 6-3, 7-5 to Titouan Droguet .
- He had reached the Rennes final the previous week.
- He opened this event with a 6-3, 7-5 win over Niels Visker.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Schoolkate's strongest stretch of a match has been the second set, even though his first sets in the same sample have gone 6-7.
Mayot won their Rennes meeting 6-3, 6-3 without conceding a second set, so the pattern has already failed once against this opponent. The sample is 13 matches in a single hard-court block, which makes it a tendency rather than a fixed rule. If this tie reaches a second set, it is the phase in which Schoolkate has been hardest to break.
- In Schoolkate's 13-match completed hard-court sample (13 August to 30 September 2026), he won 12 second sets and lost one.
- His second-set games average in that sample is 6.0 won to 3.69 lost.
- His first-set record over the same 13 matches is 6-7, with two tiebreaks.
The serve is the most stable part of Schoolkate's game and the clearest reason he is ranked ahead of Mayot.
Averaged across 15 tracked hard-court matches through 30 September 2026, the serve holds up independently of how sets unfold. It has not turned into dominance on break points, where a 33.6% conversion rate is modest for the amount of serving pressure he creates. Mayot's route is to keep enough returns in play for the rallies to decide the match.
- Schoolkate averaged 9.4 aces per match across 15 tracked hard-court matches, 141 aces in total.
- He won 77.2% of first-serve points (561 of 727) and 53.3% of second-serve points (261 of 490) in that sample.
- He converted 33.6% of break points (40 of 119) and saved 62.7% of them (47 of 75).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's recent win over Schoolkate and stronger first-set record give him a slight advantage in a close matchup.
- Mayot has won 10 of 14 hard-court matches, including a 6-3 6-3 win over Schoolkate in Rennes 12 days ago.
- Mayot's first-set record on hard is 10-4, while Schoolkate's is 6-7.
- Schoolkate is ranked 153 to Mayot's 191 and has won 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Mayot reached consecutive Challenger finals in Rennes and Saint-Tropez.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head and Mayot's tendency to finish in straight sets lean toward a shorter match.
- Mayot's hard-court matches average 23.1 total games; Schoolkate's average 24.5.
- Their recent meeting was 6-3 6-3, only 18 games.
- Mayot has played five of 14 hard-court matches that went three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average just above the line, so a close opening set is slightly more likely.
- Mayot's first sets average 9.71 total games; Schoolkate's average 9.85.
- Mayot has won 10 of 14 first sets, often by close margins.
- Schoolkate's first sets average 5.08 games won to 4.77 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayot's first-set record is clearly stronger, and he started well against Schoolkate recently.
- Mayot has won the first set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches; Schoolkate in 6 of 13.
- Mayot won the first set 6-3 in their recent meeting.
- Mayot's first-set games average is 5.29 won to 4.43 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Schoolkate's second-set record is outstanding and gives him a clear advantage in this set.
- Schoolkate has won 12 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Mayot has won 7 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Schoolkate's second-set games average is 6.0 won to 3.69 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have some three-set history, but the recent head-to-head and Mayot's straight-set wins make a quick finish more likely.
- Mayot has gone to a deciding set in 5 of 14 hard-court matches; Schoolkate in 6 of 13.
- Their recent meeting was a straight-set Mayot win.
- Schoolkate's second-set record is 12-1, suggesting he often forces a third set after losing the first.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent matches on hard have not featured a tiebreak, and the head-to-head was no exception.
- Mayot has had a tiebreak in 3 of 14 hard-court matches; Schoolkate in 4 of 13.
- Their recent meeting ended without a tiebreak.
- Mayot's total games average is 23.1, with only 2 tiebreaks in 14 first sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Harold Mayot: 3/6 recent winner projections matched

3 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Harold Mayot matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Harold Mayot6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·58%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

58%probability

Alejandro Moro Canas won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

62%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

1 Jun·Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

Harold Mayot to win

65%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

25 May·Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Matched

25 May 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

11W 4L

6-3 7-5#418Niels Visker 6-3 7-5#72Titouan Droguet 5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#268Murphy Cassone 6-3 4-6 7-5#93Jesper De Jong 6-4 6-3#203Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#411Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#218Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#153Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-4#177Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#244Max Basing

6-4 6-2#361Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#508Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#272Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

Tristan Schoolkate

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#266Philip Henning

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#267Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-3#191Harold Mayot 6-2 6-1#564Matisse Bobichon

6-7(7) 6-4 6-4#313Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-3#410Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#7Flavio Cobolli

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#139Nishesh Basavareddy

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#215Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(6)#675Seongchan Hong

6-3 6-2—Jack Secord

6-4 3-6 7-5#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-4#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 2-6 6-1#195Andre Ilagan

2-6 6-2 6-4#469Quinn Vandecasteele

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkateTS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In68.4%+8.7pp59.7%

1st Serve Won72.2%+5.0pp77.2%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+1.3pp53.3%

Aces / Match4.2+5.29.4

Double Faults / Match1.41.1 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.4%+3.8pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.8%+4.2pp33.6%

Break Pts Saved61.6%+1.1pp62.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.9%—51.6%

Serve · 2–3

68.4%1st Serve In+8.7pp59.7%

72.2%1st Serve Won+5.0pp77.2%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp53.3%

4.2Aces / Match+5.29.4

1.4Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

39.4%Return Pts Won+3.8pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

37.8%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp33.6%

61.6%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp62.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.9%Total Pts Won—51.6%

Harold Mayot

Tristan Schoolkate

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate 2-1

Harold Mayot

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Harold Mayot

Tristan Schoolkate

Stat Battle