FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Tristan Schoolkate #187Australia0Harold Mayot #255France2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Sat 19 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalI.hard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 68 places

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoolkate is the value play at 2.20 (model 62% vs implied 45.5%) thanks to a 2-0 H2H, superior serve metrics and a 3-0 indoor-hard window, even though Mayot is the market favourite.

Expect a tight, serve-driven match that supports over 21.5 games and over 12.5 aces, with Mayot's hard-court form the main risk to the edge.

Context

Schoolkate, ranked 165, and Mayot, ranked 288, have met twice before, both times won by the Australian. The 2025 match went three sets on grass, while the 2024 match was a straight-sets hard-court win for Schoolkate.
The head-to-head record is the clearest separator between two players with identical 10-5 records in their last 15 matches. Schoolkate's ability to win the key points in both previous meetings, including a 7-5 deciding set in 2025, is a small but relevant factor in a tight semi-final.
- Schoolkate won 3-6 7-5 7-5 on grass in June 2025.
- Schoolkate won 6-1 6-4 on hard in August 2024.
- In the two H2H matches, Schoolkate converted 50% of break points compared to Mayot's 33%.
Mayot, 23, is the ATP No. 288 right-hander in this Rennes semi-final and has won four of his last five tracked matches.
He reached the last eight without hitting a ball after Murphy Cassone gave a walkover on 16 September, so he has played one fewer completed match in Rennes than Schoolkate. That is fresher legs but less time on this court, and the effect on a best-of-three semi-final is modest rather than decisive.
- The scheduled Mayot-Cassone round-of-16 match on 16 September was recorded as a walkover.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 22:19 · Europe/BucharestCanal Tenis Rennes 2026 drawcanaltenis.com · 16 Sep 2026
Schoolkate's last-15 sample includes 12 outdoor hard matches (7-5) and only 3 indoor hard matches (3-0). Mayot's sample has 8 outdoor hard matches (6-2) and 2 indoor hard matches (2-0).
The indoor hard sample is small for both players, but Schoolkate's serve numbers jump significantly indoors: 14 aces per match and 85% first-serve points won, compared to 8.3 aces and 73.9% outdoors. Mayot's indoor sample is only two matches, so the surface edge is less clear for him. The semi-final could hinge on whether Schoolkate's indoor serving form holds over a larger sample.
- Schoolkate is 3-0 on indoor hard in his last 15 matches, with 14 aces per match and 85% first-serve points won.
- Mayot is 2-0 on indoor hard in his last 15 matches, with 7 aces per match and 75.2% first-serve points won.
- Schoolkate's outdoor hard record in the same window is 7-5 with 8.3 aces per match.
Schoolkate, 165, has played most of his recent matches on hard courts, while Mayot, 288, has split his recent schedule between hard and clay. Both have won 10 of their last 15 matches.
Schoolkate's recent wins include victories over players ranked 151 and 205, plus a competitive four-set loss to top-10 player Flavio Cobolli. Mayot's recent losses include defeats to players ranked 219 and 170, suggesting his form is slightly more volatile against lower-ranked opposition. That difference in opponent quality gives Schoolkate a narrow edge in a match where both players are otherwise evenly matched.
- Schoolkate is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, including wins over players ranked 151 and 205.
- Mayot is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, with recent losses to players ranked 219 and 170.
- Schoolkate pushed top-10 player Flavio Cobolli to four sets in a recent hard-court loss.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Schoolkate's superior serve structure (first-serve points won, aces, break-point save rate) plus a 2-0 H2H and a 3-0 indoor-hard window give him the stronger Core 5 serve/return and surface-fit profile, though Mayot's hard-court form keeps this only a medium-confidence edge.
- H2H: Schoolkate leads 2-0 (2024 hard 6-1 6-4; 2025 grass 3-6 7-5 7-5), winning 50% of break points vs Mayot's 33%.
- Last-15 overall: both 10-15 (66.7%), but Schoolkate's indoor-hard sample is 3-0 with 65.6% games won and 14.0 aces/match (3 matches tracked).
- Schoolkate last-15 serve: 75.7% first-serve points won, 62.9% break points saved, 9.5 aces/match; Mayot 71.1% and 58.9% with 4.6 aces/match.
- Mayot's last-15 hard record is 6-2 (75%) with 44.8% break points converted, so the edge is narrow rather than dominant.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Near-identical recent point-win rates and a long, tight 2025 H2H suggest a competitive set count, supporting the over, though the 2024 blowout keeps this at medium confidence.
- Schoolkate last-15 average match duration 119.8 minutes (129.6 on hard), with 53.7% games won — narrow margins.
- Mayot last-15 average duration 105.5 minutes, 52.6% games won, and 4 of his last 15 went to a deciding set.
- Both players sit near 51.5% and 51.4% total points won in the last 15, indicating tight, break-heavy sets.
- H2H 2025 meeting went 3-6 7-5 7-5 (33 games) and the 2024 meeting was a short 6-1 6-4 (17 games).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance56%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's stronger recent indoor-hard set and game dominance, plus his serve edge, make him the marginal favourite to take the opener, but the mixed H2H first-set pattern caps confidence at medium.
- Schoolkate career first-set win conversion 88% vs Mayot 89% — essentially level long-term baselines.
- Schoolkate's last-15 indoor-hard window: 85.7% sets won (6/7) and 65.6% games won across 3 tracked matches.
- Mayot's last-15 hard window: 66.7% sets won (12/18) and 56.8% games won across 8 tracked matches.
- H2H: Schoolkate won the opening set in the 2024 meeting 6-1 but dropped it 3-6 in 2025.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's stronger recent set-win rate and H2H second-set record give him a marginal edge in set two, but Mayot's competitive hard-court form keeps confidence low.
- Schoolkate last-15 sets won 63.4% (26/41) vs Mayot 60% (21/35).
- Schoolkate indoor-hard: 85.7% sets won (6/7) in 3 tracked matches.
- Mayot hard: 66.7% sets won (12/18) in 8 tracked matches.
- H2H 2024: Schoolkate took the second set 6-4; 2025: he won the second 7-5.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's high indoor-hard ace rate plus Mayot's solid serving baseline and the H2H ace history support the over, with the small indoor-hard sample size limiting confidence to medium.
- Schoolkate last-15: 9.5 aces/match overall and 14.0 aces/match on indoor hard (3 matches tracked).
- Mayot last-15: 4.6 aces/match overall, 7.0 on indoor hard (2 matches tracked).
- H2H combined ace counts: 14 (Schoolkate) and 13 (Mayot) across the two meetings.
- Both players' first-serve-in rates (58.4% and 64.6%) leave room for free points on serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low recent double-fault rates for both players and reasonable first-serve percentages point to a controlled serving match, supporting the under at medium confidence.
- Schoolkate last-15: 2.7 double faults/match overall, 3.0 on hard (12 matches tracked).
- Mayot last-15: 1.6 double faults/match overall, 1.9 on hard (8 matches tracked).
- H2H double faults: Schoolkate 9 and Mayot 8 across two meetings.
- Both players' first-serve-in rates above 58% reduce second-serve exposure.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tight recent game margins and both players' history of tiebreak sets make at least one tiebreak likely, though the H2H itself lacked one, keeping confidence at medium.
- Schoolkate last-15: 51% career tiebreak win rate and multiple tiebreaks in the recent window (e.g. 7-6 vs Basavareddy, 7-6 vs Draxl).
- Mayot last-15: 43% career tiebreak win rate, with a 7-6 set in the 15 September win over Tabur.
- H2H 2025 featured a 7-5 7-5 finish without a tiebreak; 2024 had none.
- Both players' close games-won rates (53.7% and 52.6%) suggest tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Mayot is priced as the favorite despite losing both H2H meetings and trailing Schoolkate in every key serve metric.

Prediction history

Tristan Schoolkate has converted only 2 of 6 recent winner projections

Tristan Schoolkate fulfilled 2 of 6 match-winner projections in this recent sample. His 2 fulfilled results came at an average estimated probability of 61.5, while the 4 missed results averaged 59.3, a narrow gap that does not separate his wins from his losses. All 4 missed projections ended in Schoolkate losses, with no draws or unresolved results. The current 62 probability sits within his historical range of 55 to 65.

Recent evidence for Tristan Schoolkate6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

62%probability

Murphy Cassone won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·55%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

55%probability

Nicolas Mejia won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

58%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Oliver Tarvet won

Missed

9 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W3-6 7-5 7-5Tristan Schoolkate#165vHarold Mayot#288Jun 9, 2025

W6-1 6-4Tristan Schoolkate#165vHarold Mayot#288Aug 7, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tristan Schoolkate

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#605Matisse Bobichon

6-7(7) 6-4 6-4#321Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-3#400Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#7Flavio Cobolli

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#151Nishesh Basavareddy

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#205Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(6)#675Seongchan Hong

6-3 6-2—Jack Secord

6-4 3-6 7-5#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-4#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 2-6 6-1#181Andre Ilagan

2-6 6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#168Federico Cina

3-6 5-1 ret.#157Soon-Woo Kwon

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#330Murphy Cassone

Harold Mayot

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#191Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#219Max Basing

6-4 6-2#365Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#477Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#271Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#170Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#671Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#123Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#270Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-3#257Mika Brunold

6-4 2-6 6-1#225Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSTristan SchoolkateSchoolkate

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Tristan Schoolkate carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.4%+6.2pp64.6%

1st Serve Won75.7%+4.6pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won51.9%+2.6pp49.3%

Aces / Match9.5+4.94.6

Double Faults / Match2.71.1 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.5%+3.4pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.7%+0.9pp35.8%

Break Pts Saved62.9%+4.0pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.4%

Serve · 3–2

58.4%1st Serve In+6.2pp64.6%

75.7%1st Serve Won+4.6pp71.1%

51.9%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp49.3%

9.5Aces / Match+4.94.6

2.7Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won+3.4pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

36.7%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp35.8%

62.9%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.4%

Tristan Schoolkate

Harold Mayot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tristan Schoolkate

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Harold Mayot @ 1.60

Head-to-Head

Tristan Schoolkate

Harold Mayot

Stat Battle