ItalyCordenons - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #494Italy2Harold Mayot #199France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Tue 14 Jul 2026, 12:21 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 295 places

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Italy

ATP currently shows no public bio for Martin Manzano. Structured data lists him at No. 494, 180 cm and left-handed, and the official Cordenons draw places him in the main draw as an Italian wildcard.

Current ranking: #494
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot is a 24-year-old French right-hander. ATP bio material lists hard as his preferred surface, and public career-high records place him at No. 103 on 14 October 2024.

Current ranking: #199
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 15:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Harold Mayot's superior serve and break point save rates give him a clear edge over wildcard Juan Cruz Martin Manzano, who has struggled against top-200 opponents.

Back Mayot to win the match and consider the 2-0 set betting for value, though his recent clay form adds a note of caution.

Context

Lost to No. 120 Facundo Diaz Acosta 6-0 6-2 in July 2026.
- Lost to No. 229 Chun Hsin Tseng 6-4 6-0 in June 2026.
- Lost to No. 228 Max Alcala Gurri 6-0 5-7 6-2 in May 2026.
Lost 6-2 6-0 to No. 250 Andrej Nedic on clay in June 2026.
- Lost 6-1 6-4 to No. 254 Philip Henning on clay in June 2026.
- Lost 4-6 6-0 6-1 to No. 210 Gilles Arnaud Bailly on clay in May 2026.
Career clay record: 99 wins, 63 losses (61% win rate).
- 2026 clay record: 21 wins, 14 losses.
- Mayot's career clay record: 69 wins, 73 losses (49% win rate).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mayot's superior serve and break point save rates, combined with Manzano's struggles against top-200 opponents, give Mayot a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Mayot has a 69.8% win on first serve vs. Manzano's 62.6%.
- Mayot's break point save rate is 61.5% vs. Manzano's 54.9%.
- Manzano is 0-3 vs. top-200 opponents in last 15 matches, losing all in straight sets.
- Mayot's recent form includes wins over players ranked 314 and 436, while Manzano's best win in last 15 is over #184.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players hover around 21 games, and their similar deciding set records suggest a competitive match that could exceed 20.5 games.
- Manzano's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games.
- Mayot's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 total games.
- Both players have a deciding set win rate of 50%, indicating potential for close matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve effectively, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Manzano's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Mayot's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games.
- Both players have first serve win percentages above 60%, reducing likelihood of quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's low break point conversion could lead to a longer second set, making over 9.5 games a plausible outcome.
- Manzano's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Mayot's last 5 second sets averaged 9.0 games.
- Mayot's break point conversion rate is only 41.9%, which may prolong the set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayot's slightly better recent first-set performance and higher overall quality make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Mayot has won the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches.
- Manzano has lost the first set in 5 of his last 10 matches.
- Mayot's first set win conversion rate is 89% career, Manzano's is 88%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayot's stronger second serve and overall consistency suggest he is likely to also win the second set if the match stays competitive.
- Mayot has won the second set in 6 of his last 10 completed matches.
- Manzano has lost the second set in 5 of his last 10 matches.
- Mayot's win on second serve is 50.2% vs. Manzano's 47.3%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Mayot's recent straight-set wins and Manzano's straight-set losses against higher-ranked opponents point to a 2-0 victory for Mayot.
- Mayot has won 4 of his last 6 completed matches in straight sets.
- Manzano has lost 5 of his last 8 losses in straight sets.
- Mayot's superior serve and return stats suggest he can control the match without dropping a set.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostHarold Mayot 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's high ace rate on a surface that still allows for some free points makes over 5.5 total aces likely, even with Manzano's low ace output.
- Mayot averages 6.8% ace rate, Manzano 2.7%.
- In best-of-3 clay matches, Mayot typically hits 4-6 aces.
- Manzano's low ace rate suggests he will contribute few aces, but Mayot alone can push the total over 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Manzano's tendency to double fault, combined with Mayot's occasional errors, could push the total double faults over 5.5 in a potentially tight match.
- Manzano has a high double fault rate of 6.1%.
- Mayot's double fault rate is 3.7%.
- In recent matches, Manzano has averaged 3-4 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

8W 7L

6-7(10) 6-4 6-3#397Henry Bernet

6-0 6-2#110Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-0 5-7 6-3#189David Jorda Sanchis

7-5 6-1#505Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-0#234Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(7) 6-4#361Tommaso Compagnucci

6-1 6-2#897Niccolo Catini

7-5 6-4#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

7-5 6-2#892Lorenzo Rottoli

6-1 6-4#882Alexandre Reco

6-4 6-1—Adam Lynch

6-2 7-5—Jacopo Borsoi

6-1 6-4#613Marlon Vankan

6-0 5-7 6-2#229Max Alcala Gurri

5-7 6-3 6-4#265Michele Ribecai

Harold Mayot

6W 9L

6-2 6-0#237Andrej Nedic

6-3 7-6(3)#227Alejandro Moro Canas

6-2 6-2#872Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#460Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-1 6-4#281Philip Henning

7-5 6-4#321Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 4-6 6-3#424Semen Pankin

7-6(2) 6-7(8) 6-0#671Yusuke Takahashi

3-6 7-6(3) 6-3#424Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#681Millen Hurrion

6-4 1-6 6-3#139Tomas Barrios Vera

4-6 6-0 6-1#203Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-4#468Jason Murray Kubler

6-4 6-3#163Timofey Skatov

7-6(5) 6-2#446Dhakshineswar Suresh