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Predictions graded

Philip Henning #2680Tristan Schoolkate #152Australia2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Wed 30 Sept 2026, 09:13 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 116 places

Philip Henning

Henning, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His No. 264 singles ranking is his highest listed career position.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #264
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoolkate, ranked 152 to Henning's 268, is the narrow favourite, but he has lost his last two matches while Henning has won 11 of 13 opening sets on hard courts.

Henning's best chance is the first set; Schoolkate's 12-1 second-set record is the likely reply. Two prices offer something: 2.5 for Henning to take the first set and 2.75 for him to win the match, while 1.4 on Schoolkate to win and 1.5 for him to take the second set ask too much.

Context

Schoolkate's New York fortnight is his most recent tennis above Challenger level: he won a Grand Slam main-draw match and then lost in four sets to an opponent who reached the third round. It matters for this fixture because his ranking advantage over Henning is backed by current hard-court results rather than by ranking alone. The run also kept him on hard courts through early September, the same surface block that leads into this week.
- His qualifying win put him into a 15-strong Australian main-draw contingent at the US Open.
- He was listed as a qualifier against Nishesh Basavareddy, also a qualifier, in the first round .
- Flavio Cobolli beat him 3-6 6-4 6-4 7-5 to reach the third round.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Rennes was Schoolkate's deepest run of this European block and it was played on indoor hard courts, the same conditions he meets in Vendée. The relevance is that the week before Saint-Tropez he was winning matches at Challenger level rather than arriving cold, and his defeat came in straight sets to a French player competing at home. It also set the France-based schedule he has followed since.
- Harold Mayot beat Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 to reach the Rennes final .
- That win gave Mayot a shot at a first Challenger title in the final the following day.
- The Rennes week followed Schoolkate's US Open second round on 3 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
A Davis Cup weekend in Pretoria sits at the front of Henning's September, and it is the clearest available statement of his standing in the game: he was picked for both singles and doubles, and lost both rubbers. For this fixture the relevant consequence is schedule and travel, because he moved from a national-team tie onto the European hard-court circuit and was on court again three days after the doubles rubber. It also means his run-in to Vendée was assembled match by match rather than through a planned block of Challenger weeks.
- South Africa announced Henning in its Davis Cup team for the Pretoria tie on 19-.
- Andrej Nedic beat him 6-4 6-4 in the singles rubber .
- Mirza Basic and Nerman Fatic beat Beckley and Henning 6-4 6-4 in the doubles rubber.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Schoolkate's hard-court sets have run in opposite directions, 5-8 in opening sets and 12-1 in second sets over the same 13-match window.
The split points to two different match shapes. Henning, who won 11 of 13 first sets in his own hard-court sample, has the better route to the front, while Schoolkate's 12-1 second-set record and seven deciders in 13 matches suggest he is more likely to be the one recovering than the one closed out.
- Schoolkate won 5 of 13 first sets and 12 of 13 second sets in 13 hard-court matches played between 13 August and 22 September 2026.
- Seven of those 13 matches went to a deciding set (three 1-2 defeats and four 2-1 wins).
- The 13 matches averaged 25.5 total games and 2.54 sets, with five containing a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tristan Schoolkate

1.50fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 66.7%

−7.7ppshort

Schoolkate's second-set record is his strongest split, often recovering after a slow start.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's bigger serve and higher ranking give him the clearer path, though Henning's hard-court form keeps this close.
- Schoolkate is ATP No. 152; Henning is No. 268.
- On hard courts Schoolkate has won 75.8% of first-serve points and 9.3 aces per match across 15 matches.
- Henning is 10-3 on hard with 54.3% of total points won.
- Schoolkate lost his last two matches, to Martineau and Mayot.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's long matches and both players' solid serving point to a total around or above this line.
- Schoolkate's hard-court matches average 25.5 games; Henning's average 20.3.
- Schoolkate has played a decider in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Schoolkate averages 9.3 aces and Henning 3.5, supporting hold-heavy sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets in this sample sit right on the line, with Schoolkate's slightly longer first sets tipping it over.
- Henning's first sets average 9.46 total games on hard; Schoolkate's average 9.85.
- Schoolkate averages 4.85 games won and 5.0 lost in opening sets.
- Henning has played only one first-set tiebreak in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets here cluster just around the line, with Schoolkate's longer second sets giving a small lean over.
- Schoolkate's second sets average 9.69 total games; Henning's average 9.31.
- Schoolkate has won 12 of 13 second sets, often 6-3 or 6-4.
- Henning's second sets have produced two tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Schoolkate's second-set record is his strongest split, often recovering after a slow start.
- Schoolkate has won 12 of 13 second sets on hard, averaging 6.0 games won to 3.69 lost.
- He has forced a decider in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Henning has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Henning's record of fast starts contrasts with Schoolkate's habit of losing the opening set.
- Henning has won 11 of 13 first sets on hard this stretch.
- Schoolkate has won only 5 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Schoolkate averages 4.85 games won and 5.0 lost in opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPhilip HenningEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's record of closing matches in two sets is the main reason the straight-sets outcome is favoured.
- Henning's hard-court matches average 2.15 sets, with only two deciders in 13.
- Nine of his 13 hard-court matches were 2-0 wins.
- Schoolkate's hard-court matches average 2.54 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's serve dominates the ace count, and a competitive match should push the total to the line.
- Schoolkate averages 9.3 aces per hard-court match; Henning 3.5.
- Schoolkate wins 75.8% of first-serve points on hard.
- Their per-match ace averages add to about 12.8.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well enough that at least one set can reach a tiebreak, especially if there is a decider.
- Schoolkate has had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard-court matches; Henning in 3 of 13.
- Schoolkate's last match contained three tie-break sets.
- Schoolkate averages 9.3 aces per match against Henning's 3.5.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two players' double-fault rates sit right at the line, with Schoolkate's higher rate tipping it slightly over.
- Henning averages 1.9 double faults and Schoolkate 2.6 per hard-court match.
- Their combined average is about 4.5 per match.
- Schoolkate has played a decider in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Tristan Schoolkate: 2/6 recent winner projections matched

2 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Tristan Schoolkate matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tristan Schoolkate6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

62%probability

Murphy Cassone won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·55%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

55%probability

Nicolas Mejia won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

58%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Oliver Tarvet won

Missed

9 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

Previous match context available

Philip Henning

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#554Alec Deckers

6-4 7-6(1)#379Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-4#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-4 2-6 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

3-6 6-3 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 6-1—Alexander Watanabe Eriksson

6-2 6-2—Diogo Coelho

6-4 6-3#374Dan Added

6-4 7-6(0)#707Tristan Mccormick

6-1 6-2#417Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-4#678Tiago Cacao

7-6(2) 6-0—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-4#235Maks Kasnikowski

2-6 6-4 6-2#257Martin Krumich

6-1 7-6(1)#138Thiago Seyboth Wild

Tristan Schoolkate

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#276Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-3#237Harold Mayot 6-2 6-1#566Matisse Bobichon

6-7(7) 6-4 6-4#311Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-3#411Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#7Flavio Cobolli

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#167Nishesh Basavareddy

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#209Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(6)#675Seongchan Hong

6-3 6-2—Jack Secord

6-4 3-6 7-5#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-4#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 2-6 6-1#184Andre Ilagan

2-6 6-2 6-4#465Quinn Vandecasteele

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#170Federico Cina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PHPhilip HenningHenning

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkateTS

Philip Henning carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Schoolkate's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.0%+3.8pp59.2%

1st Serve Won69.5%+6.3pp75.8%

2nd Serve Won56.7%+3.2pp53.5%

Aces / Match3.5+5.89.3

Double Faults / Match1.90.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.4%+6.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted41.8%+7.3pp34.5%

Break Pts Saved63.9%—64.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+1.6pp51.2%

Serve · 3–2

63.0%1st Serve In+3.8pp59.2%

69.5%1st Serve Won+6.3pp75.8%

56.7%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp53.5%

3.5Aces / Match+5.89.3

1.9Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

41.4%Return Pts Won+6.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

41.8%Break Pts Converted+7.3pp34.5%

63.9%Break Pts Saved—64.4%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.2%