FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania0Harold Mayot #255France2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 13:03 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 13 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 02:11 · Europe/Bucharest

The winner of this round-of-16 tie in Saint-Tropez reaches the quarter-finals, and Mayot's hard-court serve and second-set record give him a narrow edge over a player ranked 39 places above him.

Mayot to win the match at 2.10 and Mayot to win the second set at 2.00 are the two prices worth taking; the shorter quotes on Butvilas are not.

Context

Dimitrov carried the sixth seeding and a No. 127 ranking, so this was the tougher of the two first-round draws, and Butvilas won it in two sets. That leaves him with two sets of work in the legs against Mayot's three, a genuine difference before a round-of-16 match played on the same courts. It also removes the highest-profile name from this section of the draw, so the route in front of both men is more open than the entry list suggested.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the Saint-Tropez first round .
- Dimitrov held the sixth seeding and entered the draw on a wildcard at No. 127.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:09 · Europe/Bucharest
A Challenger 100 final is the strongest result in Mayot's recent stretch and the form line behind his run here. Reaching it took four matches plus the final itself, making him one of the busiest arrivals in the Saint-Tropez draw before he added a three-set first round. Set against an opponent who needed only two sets in his opener, that accumulated court time is the most concrete physical difference between the two.
- Mayot lost the Rennes Challenger 100 final 4-6 6-3 7-5 to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg.
- He beat Clément Chidekh 6-4 6-4 in the quarter-finals and Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 in the semi-finals.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Those serving numbers are what separates two players of similar ranking, and they are the main counterweight to Butvilas's stronger first-set record. He also converted 40.6% of his own break points over the same matches.
- Mayot won 432 of 599 first-serve points (72.1%) across 13 hard-court matches between 4 August and 22 September 2026.
- He saved 53 of 80 break points (66.3%) in those 13 matches.
- He converted 39 of 96 break points (40.6%) on the surface.
Playing a competitive three-set Davis Cup rubber and then travelling to the Côte d'Azur gave Butvilas a different build-up from Mayot, who came straight off the Challenger circuit. He still won his opening match here in straight sets, so the change of continent did not visibly cost him. The tie also closed out Lithuania's 2026 World Group I campaign, so no further national-team duty sits around this event.
- Butvilas played the opening singles rubber for Lithuania against Serbia in the Davis Cup World Group I tie in Niš .
- He lost 7-5 1-6 7-5 to Miomir Kecmanović, ranked No. 60.
- Serbia won the tie 4-0 to take a place in the 2027 Davis Cup qualifiers.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Edas Butvilas

1.73fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 57.8%

−6.8ppshort

Butvilas has been the stronger starter, winning first sets at a much higher rate than he wins matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Mayot's serve numbers and stronger second-set record give him a narrow advantage between two closely ranked players.
- Mayot is 10-3 on hard in this window and has won 54.5% of games
- On the surface he wins 72.1% of first-serve points and saves 66.3% of break points
- Butvilas is 6-8 in second sets across 14 hard matches
- The ranking gap is small (198 vs 237)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average close to or above ten games, with Butvilas in particular often going to a tiebreak.
- Butvilas's first sets average 10.3 games on hard
- Mayot's first sets average 9.6 games
- Six first-set tiebreaks across the two 27-match samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been the shorter phase for both players, with few tiebreaks involved.
- Mayot's second sets average 8.8 games on hard
- Butvilas's second sets average 9.7 games
- Only two second-set tiebreaks across the combined 27 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's matches have regularly run past this line, and an even contest between similar servers tends to add games.
- Butvilas's hard-court matches average 25.4 total games
- Mayot's hard-court matches average 22.5 total games
- Butvilas has had a tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Mayot's second sets are his more reliable phase, while Butvilas has lost more second sets than he has won.
- Mayot is 8-5 in second sets on hard
- He averages 4.69 games won and 4.08 lost per second set
- Butvilas is 6-8 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more frequent outcome in both players' recent hard-court samples.
- 12 of the combined 27 hard-court matches went to a third set
- Mayot completed 8 of 13 hard matches in straight sets
- Mayot's hard matches average 2.38 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Butvilas has been the stronger starter, winning first sets at a much higher rate than he wins matches.
- Butvilas has won 11 of 14 first sets on hard
- He averages 6.0 games won and 4.3 lost in first sets
- Mayot is 9-4 in first sets on the surface
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's serve has kept most of his recent matches free of tiebreaks, and he is the steadier server here.
- Mayot has had a tiebreak in only 3 of 13 hard matches
- Mayot wins 72.1% of first-serve points on the surface
- Butvilas has had a tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

11W 4L

7-6(3) 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#60Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#241Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#497Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#565Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#538Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#204Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#121Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#312Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#148Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#147Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#133Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#416Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#208Tristan Boyer

Harold Mayot

10W 5L

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#418Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#152Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-4#177Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#241Max Basing

6-4 6-2#358Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#512Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#272Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#672Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#120Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#899Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#265Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-3#409Dylan Dietrich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.8%+3.2pp66.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.4%+2.2pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.7%+2.3pp50.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.8+1.44.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.30.9 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1540.6%+2.0pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1549.0%+11.8pp37.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.3%+6.2pp62.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.1%+2.1pp51.0%

Serve · 3–2

62.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp66.0%

73.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp71.2%

52.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp50.4%

5.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.44.4

2.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

40.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

49.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+11.8pp37.2%

56.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.2pp62.5%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp51.0%