Centurion - South AfricaFinished

Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #214France2Yusuke Takahashi #670Japan1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-0Mon 1 Jun 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 456 places

Harold Mayot

France

Former junior world No. 1. Public profile sources show a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 103 on 14 October 2024, while the structured match payload places him at No. 214 for this match.

Current ranking: #214
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Yusuke Takahashi

Japan

Public profile sources show a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 238 on 7 August 2017, while the structured match payload places him at No. 670 for this match. His documented ITF singles finals on the public profile page are all on hard courts.

Current ranking: #670
Peak ranking: #238 · 2017
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 May 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayot's ranking and serve edge make him the favorite, but his recent inconsistency and Takahashi's competitiveness suggest a closer match than the 1.18 odds imply.

The best value is Mayot 2-0 at 1.55, while over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak are plausible. Avoid Takahashi 2-1 at 8.00 due to his poor comeback record.

Context

In his last five matches, Mayot lost to Semen Pankin (ranked 446), Gilles Arnaud Bailly (204), and Tomas Barrios Vera (136).
- His only wins in that span came against Millen Hurrion (550) and Dhakshineswar Suresh (482).
- Mayot's first-serve win percentage (69.8%) and break-point save rate (61.7%) are only slightly better than Takahashi's, suggesting he is not dominating on serve.
In his last five matches, Takahashi defeated Mert Alkaya (321) and lost a tight three-setter to Hayato Matsuoka (356).
- He also beat Beibit Zhukayev (302) in three sets in late April.
- Takahashi's return points won percentage (41%) and break-point conversion rate (44%) are slightly higher than Mayot's, giving him a chance to pressure the Frenchman's serve.
Mayot played two matches at Centurion 1, beating Millen Hurrion and losing to Semen Pankin.
- Takahashi also played two matches at the same event, defeating Mert Alkaya before falling to Edward Winter.
- Both players have had a short turnaround but no reported fatigue or injury concerns.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Harold Mayot

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Mayot's superior ranking and serve metrics give him a clear edge, but the odds heavily overrate his win probability relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Harold Mayot

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Mayot's elite first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting fast make him the likely set 1 winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Mayot's superior ranking, stronger recent quality wins, and better serve hold metrics give him a clear edge in this hard-court Bo3 opener.
- Mayot holds a 214 ranking vs Takahashi's 670, indicating a significant class gap.
- Mayot's career hard-court win percentage is 64/ (64+ losses) ≈ 50%, while Takahashi's is 286/ (286+ losses) ≈ 53%, but Mayot has faced much stronger competition.
- In the last 15 matches, Mayot has wins over players ranked 269, 282, and 207, while Takahashi's best win in that window is over #302 Zhukayev.
- Mayot's first-serve win percentage (69.8%) and break-point save rate (61.7%) edge Takahashi's (67.6% and 57.5%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance65%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in competitive sets that push total games over 21.5.
- In Mayot's last 5 completed Bo3 matches, 4 had 22+ games.
- Takahashi's last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 22.4 games, with 3 going over 21.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 42-44%, suggesting breaks but not runaway sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid serving and recent first-set game counts.
- In Mayot's last 5 matches, the first set averaged 9.8 games.
- Takahashi's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 exceeding 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 68-70%, making early breaks less likely.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Assuming a competitive match, the second set is likely to see at least 10 games based on recent patterns.
- Mayot's second sets in his last 5 matches averaged 9.6 games.
- Takahashi's second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- If the match is competitive, the second set often mirrors the first in tightness.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mayot's elite first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting fast make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Mayot's first-set win conversion rate is 88% over his career, indicating he starts matches strongly.
- In his last 5 matches, Mayot won the first set in 3 of them, including against higher-ranked opponents.
- Takahashi's first-set win conversion is 86%, but he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against sub-500 opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Mayot's higher ace rate and the potential for a three-setter, total aces could exceed 7.5.
- Mayot's ace rate is 6.8%, and he averages about 5-6 aces per match in recent Bo3 contests.
- Takahashi's ace rate is 4%, but he can contribute 2-3 aces.
- Combined, they project around 8 aces in a typical two-set match, more if three sets.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given their similar double-fault rates, a combined total over 5.5 is plausible, especially if the match extends.
- Both players have a double-fault rate of 3.7%, translating to roughly 3-4 double faults each in a two-set match.
- In recent matches, Mayot has averaged 3.2 double faults, Takahashi 3.5.
- A three-set match would push the total higher.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Harold Mayot

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(3) 6-3#446Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#550Millen Hurrion

6-4 1-6 6-3#136Tomas Barrios Vera

4-6 6-0 6-1#204Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-4#440Jason Murray Kubler

6-4 6-3#189Timofey Skatov

7-6(5) 6-2#482Dhakshineswar Suresh

7-6(2) 1-6 7-6(11)#282Sumit Nagal

6-1 6-4#269Petr Bar Biryukov

5-2 ret.#101Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#174Yoshihito Nishioka

6-4 6-2#207Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-4 6-2#363Yuta Shimizu

6-0 3-0 ret.#872Naoya Honda

6-4 6-7(6) 7-5#312Yasutaka Uchiyama

Yusuke Takahashi

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-2#466Edward Winter

6-3 7-6(5)#321Mert Alkaya

6-3 6-2#544Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-2#606Ryuki Matsuda

5-7 6-2 7-5#356Hayato Matsuoka

6-4 6-2#530Omar Jasika

7-6(6) 6-2#363Yuta Shimizu

7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-2#302Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(2)#551Enzo Aguiard

6-2 6-1—Ryo Tabata

2-6 6-3 6-4—Ethan Cook

6-2 6-2#1310Sergey Betov

6-1 6-3#217Yi Zhou

6-4 2-6 6-2#417Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#693Naoki Nakagawa