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Predictions graded

Facundo Mena #333Argentina2Max Alcala Gurri #171Spain1

Sets 0-6 · 6-0 · 6-2Wed 2 Sept 2026, 09:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Alcala Gurri · 162 places

Facundo Mena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, age 33. His verified singles career high is No. 127, reached on 12 September 2022; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #333
Peak ranking: #127 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

Born 11 September 2002. His ranking rose from No. 417 at year-end 2025 to No. 171 in the Hamburg draw, and he won the Cordenons Challenger on 19 July 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #171
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Max Alcala Gurri is the likely winner due to superior clay-court return and break-point stats, but the 1.30 odds offer no value.

The match could be closer than the ranking suggests, with Mena's serve keeping him competitive. Best angles: over 6.5 total aces (low confidence) or over 21.5 total games (low confidence).

Context

Alcala Gurri, 24, is ranked 177 and has built his career on clay, with 51 wins on the surface in 2026. Mena, 33, is ranked 306 and has a long clay history but has been less consistent recently.
Alcala Gurri's recent clay sample shows a 64.3% win rate and a 44.8% return points won, while Mena's clay win rate is 53.8% with only 34.8% return points won. Alcala Gurri also converts break points at 45.5% compared to Mena's 28.6%, giving him a clear edge in the key return and break-point battle on this surface.
- Alcala Gurri's last 15 clay matches: 9-5 record, 44.8% return points won, 45.5% break points converted.
- Mena's last 15 clay matches: 7-6 record, 34.8% return points won, 28.6% break points converted.
- Alcala Gurri has a 51-15 clay record in 2026; Mena is 23-14 on clay in 2026.
Mena has spent most of his career on clay but has been inconsistent in recent weeks, with losses to players ranked outside the top 200.
In his last five clay matches, Mena lost to Cezar Cretu (ranked 230), Juan Manuel La Serna (289), and Thomas Faurel (351). The 6-2 6-0 loss to Cretu was particularly one-sided, suggesting he may struggle against Alcala Gurri's consistent baseline game.
- Mena's last 5 clay matches: W, L, W, W, W, but losses to Cretu (230), La Serna (289), and Faurel (351).
- The loss to Cretu was 6-2 6-0, with Mena winning only 2 games.
Alcala Gurri's return game is a key strength, and Mena's second serve has been a weakness in recent matches.
Alcala Gurri's return points won percentage of 44.4% is significantly higher than Mena's 33.9%. Mena's second serve points won is only 50.2%, which could allow Alcala Gurri to apply pressure and create break-point opportunities throughout the match.
- Alcala Gurri's overall return points won: 44.4% (460/1035).
- Mena's overall return points won: 33.9% (368/1085).
- Mena's second serve points won: 50.2% (230/458).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Max Alcala Gurri

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Alcala Gurri's superior recent clay-court return and break-point efficiency, combined with a higher ranking, give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Alcala Gurri's superior recent clay-court return and break-point efficiency, combined with a higher ranking, give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Max Alcala Gurri has a 64.3% win rate on clay in his last 14 matches (9-5), while Facundo Mena is 53.8% in his last 13 clay matches (7-6).
- Alcala Gurri's return points won on clay is 44.8% vs Mena's 34.8%, a 10-point edge.
- Alcala Gurri's break point conversion on clay is 45.5% vs Mena's 28.6%.
- Alcala Gurri is ranked 177 vs Mena's 306.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match game averages suggest a competitive match that could exceed 21.5 games, though the edge is modest.
- Mena's last 15 matches average 22.3 games per match (335 games / 15 matches).
- Alcala Gurri's last 15 matches average 20.4 games per match (306 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar average match durations around 100 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, with a reasonable chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Mena's recent matches have featured several tight first sets, including 7-6, 7-5, and 6-4 scores.
- Alcala Gurri's recent first sets include 6-4, 6-3, and 7-6 scores.
- Both players have first serve percentages around 58-68%, leading to competitive games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's stronger recent clay-court return game should allow him to take the opening set more often than not.
- Alcala Gurri's first set win conversion is 87% career, while Mena's is 88%.
- Alcala Gurri has won 59.4% of sets on clay in his last 14 matches, Mena 50% in his last 13.
- Alcala Gurri's return points won on clay is 44.8% vs Mena's 34.8%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mena's serve is the primary ace threat, and if he serves well, the combined total could exceed 6.5 aces.
- Mena averages 5.2 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Alcala Gurri averages only 1.3 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 6.5 aces per match, but Mena's higher ace rate could push the total over.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the combined average suggests a close call on the 5.5 line.
- Mena averages 3.7 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Alcala Gurri averages 2.6 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 6.3 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Max Alcala Gurri has been highly reliable when projected to win

Max Alcala Gurri has fulfilled 11 of 14 recent win predictions, a 79% success rate. His average estimated probability was 69.5%, with an expected 9.7 fulfilled predictions, meaning he outperformed expectations by 1.3 wins. All three missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws, and his current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 58-82%.

Recent evidence for Max Alcala Gurri14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#181Max Alcala Gurri0-2#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsMax Alcala Gurri to win·58%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#181Max Alcala Gurri0-2#556Dylan Dietrich

Max Alcala Gurri to win

58%probability

Dylan Dietrich won

Missed

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-1#278Martin Krumich

BetBugsMax Alcala Gurri to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-1#278Martin Krumich

Max Alcala Gurri to win

62%probability

Max Alcala Gurri won

Matched

19 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#346Federico Bondioli0-2#229Max Alcala Gurri

BetBugsMax Alcala Gurri to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#346Federico Bondioli0-2#229Max Alcala Gurri

Max Alcala Gurri to win

62%probability

Max Alcala Gurri won

Matched

18 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-1#352Gonzalo Villanueva

BetBugsMax Alcala Gurri to win·58%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-1#352Gonzalo Villanueva

Max Alcala Gurri to win

58%probability

Max Alcala Gurri won

Matched

16 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-0#593Lorenzo Angelini

BetBugsMax Alcala Gurri to win·78%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#229Max Alcala Gurri2-0#593Lorenzo Angelini

Max Alcala Gurri to win

78%probability

Max Alcala Gurri won

Matched

Previous match context available

Facundo Mena

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#498Patrick Schoen

6-2 6-0#230Cezar Cretu

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(3) 6-1#378Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 7-5#573Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-4#320Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 6-3#289Juan Manuel La Serna

7-6(2) 6-2#351Thomas Faurel

6-3 7-6(1)#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-4 6-3#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#884Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 6-4#709Tristan Mccormick

3-6 6-3 7-5#457Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-0#431Valerio Aboian

6-2 2-6 6-1#472Miguel Tobon

Max Alcala Gurri

9W 6L

4-6 6-4 3-0 ret.#279Sean Cuenin

6-2 6-1#118Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-4#373Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#263Martin Krumich

6-2 6-0#304Federico Bondioli

4-6 7-5 6-2#321Gonzalo Villanueva

6-1 6-3#271Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-2#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-0 6-2#654Giorgio Tabacco

6-3 6-4#129Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-2 7-5#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(6) 6-1#295Sergey Fomin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFacundo MenaMena

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Max Alcala GurriGurriMG

Max Alcala Gurri carries the stronger recent form — Facundo Mena's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.4%+9.7pp68.1%

1st Serve Won72.8%+7.7pp65.1%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+3.6pp53.8%

Aces / Match5.2+3.91.3

Double Faults / Match3.71.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.9%+10.5pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted29.5%+15.4pp44.9%

Break Pts Saved68.0%+16.8pp51.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+3.6pp52.4%

Serve · 2–3

58.4%1st Serve In+9.7pp68.1%

72.8%1st Serve Won+7.7pp65.1%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp53.8%

5.2Aces / Match+3.91.3

3.7Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

33.9%Return Pts Won+10.5pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

29.5%Break Pts Converted+15.4pp44.9%

68.0%Break Pts Saved+16.8pp51.2%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+3.6pp52.4%