ItalyCordenons - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Alcala Gurri #229Spain2Lorenzo Angelini #593Italy0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Thu 16 Jul 2026, 08:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Alcala Gurri · 364 places

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

Structured reference lists him at No. 229, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 178 cm. The official Cordenons draw lists him as the No. 5 seed on clay this week.

Current ranking: #229
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

Structured reference lists him at No. 593 and right-handed. The official Cordenons draw lists him as an Italian wildcard in the main draw this week.

Current ranking: #593
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Jul 2026, 16:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Max Alcala Gurri is a heavy favorite over wildcard Lorenzo Angelini, with a dominant clay record and ranking edge pointing to a straight-set win.

The best betting value lies in the under 21.5 total games, as both players’ recent matches have been low-scoring and break-heavy on clay.

Context

Alcala Gurri is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, all on clay, with 8 of those wins coming in straight sets.
- His opener was a 6-0, 6-2 win over #739 Tabacco in just 79 minutes.
- In his last 5 wins, the average total games was 17.8, showing he closes matches quickly.
Angelini’s last 15 opponents had an average ranking of ~550, with only two inside the top 300.
- He lost in straight sets to #302 Dali Blanch and #484 Yannik Kelm in recent weeks.
- His opener win over #272 Montes-De La Torre was a strong result, but Alcala Gurri at #229 is a tougher test.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Max Alcala Gurri

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Alcala Gurri's superior clay pedigree, ranking, and recent dominant form against stronger opponents give him a clear edge in this matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Alcala Gurri's superior clay pedigree, ranking, and recent dominant form against stronger opponents give him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Alcala Gurri holds a 45-13 clay record in 2026 vs Angelini's 16-9; career clay win% 273-168 (62%) vs 54-39 (58%).
- Ranking gap: #229 vs #593, with Alcala Gurri as the #5 seed and Angelini a wildcard.
- Alcala Gurri's recent form: 10-5 in last 15, including a dominant 6-0 6-2 opener; Angelini 10-5 but with two retirements and weaker opposition.
- Serve/return edge: Alcala Gurri wins 61.3% on first serve vs 59.4%, and 47% return points won vs 46%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Given both players' ability to dominate on clay and recent low-scoring matches, a total under 21.5 games is likely.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 wins averaged 17.8 total games; his opener was 14 games.
- Angelini's recent wins often came in straight sets with low game counts (e.g., 15, 16, 15 games).
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Alcala Gurri 48.5%, Angelini 46.2%) on clay, leading to quicker sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Alcala Gurri's strong starts and Angelini's occasional slow openings, the first set is likely to be one-sided and under 9.5 games.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 first sets: 6-0, 3-6, 6-7, 2-6, 6-2 — three of five under 9.5 games.
- Angelini's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1, 7-5 — three of five under 9.5 games.
- Alcala Gurri's opener was a 6-0 first set, showing his ability to dominate early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
If Alcala Gurri wins the first set, the second set is likely to be similarly one-sided, staying under 9.5 games.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 4-6, 3-6, 4-6, 7-5 — three of five under 9.5 games.
- Angelini's last 5 second sets: 6-0, 3-6, 6-1, 0-1 ret., 3-0 ret. — all under 9.5 games when completed.
- In straight-set wins, both players often close out the second set comfortably.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's high first-set win rate and recent trend of strong starts suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Alcala Gurri has an 87% first-set win conversion rate in his career, indicating strong starts.
- In his last 5 matches, Alcala Gurri won the first set in 4 of them, often by comfortable margins.
- Angelini lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including a 6-0 set against Tabata.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a strong tendency to finish matches in straight sets, making a 2-0 result likely.
- Alcala Gurri has won 8 of his last 10 matches in straight sets.
- Angelini has won 7 of his last 10 completed matches in straight sets.
- H2H is absent, but the ranking and form gap suggests a straight-set outcome.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's form and Angelini's vulnerability in straight-set losses point to a 2-0 win for the Spaniard.
- Alcala Gurri's straight-set win rate in recent clay matches is 80% (8 of last 10 wins).
- Angelini has lost in straight sets in 3 of his last 5 losses.
- Alcala Gurri's dominant opener (6-0 6-2) and higher ranking support a clean victory.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMax Alcala Gurri 2-0Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low frequency of tiebreaks in their recent matches and the likelihood of one-sided sets, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Alcala Gurri's tiebreak win rate is 49%, and he has played a tiebreak in only 2 of his last 15 matches.
- Angelini's tiebreak win rate is 44%, with only 1 tiebreak in his last 15 matches.
- Both players tend to win or lose sets by breaks rather than tiebreaks on clay.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With low ace rates and a clay surface, the combined ace count is likely to stay under 5.5.
- Alcala Gurri's ace rate is 1.2% (297 aces in 446 matches), averaging ~2-3 aces per match.
- Angelini's ace rate is 0.9% (58 aces in 136 matches), averaging ~1-2 aces per match.
- Clay surface reduces ace counts; both players rely on rallying rather than big serves.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's elevated double fault rate makes it likely the combined total exceeds 5.5, though Angelini's lower rate keeps confidence low.
- Alcala Gurri's double fault rate is 6.5% (1614 DFs in 446 matches), averaging ~3-4 per match.
- Angelini's double fault rate is 4.6% (303 DFs in 136 matches), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Combined, they average around 5-7 double faults per match, with Alcala Gurri's higher rate pushing the total up.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Max Alcala Gurri

11W 4L

6-0 6-2#739Giorgio Tabacco

6-3 6-4#138Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#237Andrej Nedic

6-2 7-5#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(6) 6-1#297Sergey Fomin

7-6(4) 6-1#850Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-3 6-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

6-2 6-7(3) 7-5#362Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-2 6-2#876Ryo Tabata

7-5 6-1#726Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-2#302Dali Blanch

7-5 6-2#411Johan Nikles

6-1 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

2-6 6-1 6-1#255Buvaysar Gadamauri

Lorenzo Angelini

11W 4L

6-3 6-0#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-4 3-6 6-4#451Luca Potenza

6-3 6-1#847Luca Castagnola

6-1 1-0 ret.#392Andrej Martin

7-5 3-0 ret.#594Giovanni Oradini

6-2 6-1—Edoardo Cherie Ligniere

7-6(7) 6-2—Henry Best

6-2 6-3#302Dali Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-1#375Gabriele Piraino

6-0 6-1#888Nitin Kumar Sinha

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

6-0 7-5#876Ryo Tabata

6-3 6-2#782Louis Dussin

6-4 6-2#484Yannik Kelm

4-6 6-2 6-1—Giannicola Misasi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMax Alcala GurriGurri

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Lorenzo AngeliniAngeliniLA

Lorenzo Angelini carries the stronger recent form — Max Alcala Gurri's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In70.5%—69.9%

1st Serve Won66.5%+3.9pp62.6%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+3.6pp48.1%

Aces / Match0.9+0.60.3

Double Faults / Match2.91.2 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won47.2%+2.5pp49.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted47.9%+6.3pp54.2%

Break Pts Saved48.6%+9.9pp58.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won54.3%—54.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

70.5%1st Serve In—69.9%

66.5%1st Serve Won+3.9pp62.6%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp48.1%

0.9Aces / Match+0.60.3

2.9Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

47.2%Return Pts Won+2.5pp49.7%

Pressure · 0–2

47.9%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp54.2%

48.6%Break Pts Saved+9.9pp58.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.3%Total Pts Won—54.1%

Max Alcala Gurri

Lorenzo Angelini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Max Alcala Gurri

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Max Alcala Gurri

Lorenzo Angelini

Stat Battle