United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Tristan Schoolkate #187Australia2Federico Cina #178Italy1

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 7-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Cina · 9 places

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Federico Cina

Italy

At No. 178, Cina remains close to his career-high No. 174, reached on 29 June 2026. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface and his father, Francesco, as his coach.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #174 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Aug 2026, 13:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Federico Cina holds a slight edge over Tristan Schoolkate based on superior recent return stats and break point conversion, despite limited hard-court data.

The best betting angle is over 9.5 games in the first set, where both players' competitive recent sets and Schoolkate's serve vulnerability create value. Cina is favored to win, but the odds offer no edge, and a tight match with potential for three sets is expected.

Context

Schoolkate's last15 hard-court record is 1-4 (20%).
- His only win came against Liam Broady (ranked 199), and he lost to players ranked 153, 326, 241, and 288.
- In those five matches, he won only 48.4% of games and 33.3% of sets.
Cina's last15 hard-court matches tracked: 2 (1 win, 1 loss).
- His overall last15 return points won is 39.6%, but his hard-court return points won is 45.5% in a tiny sample.
- His career hard-court record is 46-27, but recent hard-court data is lacking.
On 2026-08-04, Schoolkate retired after losing the first set 6-3 and trailing 5-1 in the second against Kwon.
- No further injury details are available, but the retirement was recent and on hard court.
- He has not played since, giving him a week to recover, but the quick turnaround raises questions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Federico Cina

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Cina's superior return stats and break point conversion give him an edge, but the odds already price him as a clear favorite, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Cina's superior recent return stats and break point conversion give him an edge in a Bo3 hard-court match, despite limited recent hard-court data.
- Cina's last15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%) vs Schoolkate's 6-9 (40%)
- Cina's last15 return points won: 39.6% vs Schoolkate's 35.8%
- Cina's last15 break point conversion: 47.5% vs Schoolkate's 31.3%
- Schoolkate's last15 hard-court record: 1-4 (20%), Cina's hard-court sample small but career 46-27 on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFederico CinaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent match lengths, and their break point save rates indicate extended sets, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Schoolkate's last15 average games per match: 25.4 (188 games/15 matches)
- Cina's last15 average games per match: 23.2 (187 games/15 matches)
- Both players' last15 hard-court matches averaged 24.8 and 21.0 games respectively
- Schoolkate's last15 break point saved: 61.5%, Cina's 59%, suggesting competitive holds
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent form shows tight opening sets for both, with Schoolkate's serve vulnerability and Cina's return keeping games close.
- Schoolkate's last15 first-set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches, many close sets)
- Cina's last15 first-set average games: 9.5 (several 7-5, 6-4 sets)
- Both players' last15 hard-court first sets averaged 10+ games in small samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent matches have been competitive, and neither player shows a tendency for quick second-set collapses.
- Schoolkate's last15 second-set average games: 9.3, with several 6-4, 7-5 sets
- Cina's last15 second-set average games: 9.1, with multiple 6-3, 6-4 sets
- Both players' break point save rates above 59% suggest fewer breaks in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina's return strength and Schoolkate's hard-court serving inconsistency tilt the first set slightly toward Cina.
- Cina's last15 first-set win rate implied by 55.6% sets won and 8-7 record
- Schoolkate's last15 first-serve points won: 70.5%, but hard-court first-serve in only 57.5%
- Cina's last15 return points won: 39.6%, suggesting early pressure on Schoolkate's serve
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFederico CinaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's ace output alone often pushes totals near 8, and with Cina adding 4-5, over 12.5 is reachable in a competitive match.
- Schoolkate's last15 aces per match: 7.9, Cina's: 4.7, combined average 12.6
- Schoolkate's last15 hard-court aces per match: 6.6, Cina's: 4.0, combined 10.6
- Schoolkate's career ace rate higher on hard, Cina's lower but still contributes
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina's high double fault rate in limited hard-court matches and both players' moderate career rates suggest a combined total over 6.5 is plausible.
- Schoolkate's last15 double faults per match: 3.1, Cina's: 3.7, combined 6.8
- Cina's last15 hard-court double faults per match: 8.0 (small sample of 2 matches)
- Schoolkate's last15 hard-court double faults per match: 2.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Schoolkate's poor recent hard-court form and weak return stats make him an underdog with little chance of an upset.

Prediction history

Federico Cina has been highly reliable when projected to win

Federico Cina has fulfilled 8 of 11 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 61.8%, with an expected 6.8 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 55% is below his historical range of 58–72%, suggesting a lower confidence projection than in past matches.

Recent evidence for Federico Cina11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-0#196Lorenzo Giustino

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-0#196Lorenzo Giustino

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-1#299Daniel Michalski

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-1#299Daniel Michalski

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

12 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#291Calvin Hemery

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#291Calvin Hemery

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

11 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#401Patrick Zahraj

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·72%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#401Patrick Zahraj

Federico Cina to win

72%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

6 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski2-1#174Federico Cina

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski2-1#174Federico Cina

Federico Cina to win

62%probability

Maks Kasnikowski won

Missed

Tristan Schoolkate

6W 9L

3-6 5-1 ret.#153Soon-Woo Kwon

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#288Murphy Cassone

4-6 7-6(7) 7-5#82Arthur Gea

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#224August Holmgren

6-4 6-4 6-4#129Nicolas Mejia

7-5 6-0#823Daniel Evans

7-5 6-3#315Johannus Monday

6-3 6-2#436Oliver Tarvet

6-4 3-6 6-3#375Paul Jubb

6-4 3-6 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-4 6-4#221Darwin Blanch

7-5 1-6 6-4#215Kimmer Coppejans

7-6(3) 6-2#326Fajing Sun

7-6(9) 6-4#241Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#199Liam Broady

Federico Cina

8W 7L

7-6(3) 6-2#267Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 7-5#208Elias Ymer

4-6 6-3 6-4#84Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-2#198Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 3-6 6-1#338Daniel Michalski

6-3 3-6 7-6(6)#54Quentin Halys

6-4 6-3#318Calvin Hemery

7-5 6-3#408Patrick Zahraj

6-4 3-6 7-5#231Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 6-3#752Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#96Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-2#192Gianluca Cadenasso

7-6(6) 0-6 6-2#183Taro Daniel

4-6 6-4 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

6-1 7-5#77Jan Choinski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSTristan SchoolkateSchoolkate

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Federico CinaCinaFC

Federico Cina carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Schoolkate's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.8%+1.1pp58.9%

1st Serve Won70.5%—69.8%

2nd Serve Won54.4%—54.2%

Aces / Match7.9+3.24.7

Double Faults / Match3.10.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.8%+3.8pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted31.3%+16.2pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+2.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+1.6pp51.4%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

57.8%1st Serve In+1.1pp58.9%

70.5%1st Serve Won—69.8%

54.4%2nd Serve Won—54.2%

7.9Aces / Match+3.24.7

3.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won+3.8pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

31.3%Break Pts Converted+16.2pp47.5%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.4%

Tristan Schoolkate #187Australia2Federico Cina #178Italy1

Player Profiles

Tristan Schoolkate

Federico Cina

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Federico Cina 2-1

Federico Cina

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Tristan Schoolkate @ 2.25

Federico Cina has been highly reliable when projected to win

Tristan Schoolkate

Federico Cina

Stat Battle