PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #492Switzerland0Facundo Mena #333Argentina2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 12:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFacundo Mena · 159 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #492
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Facundo Mena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, age 33. His verified singles career high is No. 127, reached on 12 September 2022; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #333
Peak ranking: #127 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Patrick Schoen's strong recent form (11-4) and superior return game give him a 62% win probability against Facundo Mena, despite Mena's higher ranking.

The best betting angle is Schoen to win at odds of 2.40, offering a 20.3-point edge. Schoen's first-set dominance and break point efficiency further support his chances.

Context

Schoen, ranked 498, has been playing mostly hard-court events but has won two of his last three clay matches this week in Porto.
His 73.3% win rate over the last 15 matches is well above Mena's 46.7%, and he has also won a higher share of total points (53.1% vs 48.8%). Mena's recent form is weaker, including a heavy loss to Cezar Cretu in his last match, which suggests Schoen enters with a clearer edge in current level.
- Schoen last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3%); Mena last 15 record: 7-8 (46.7%).
- Schoen total points won: 53.1%; Mena total points won: 48.8%.
- Mena lost his most recent match 6-2 6-0 to Cezar Cretu on clay.
Mena, 33, has played most of his career on clay and has a 56.9% career win rate overall.
Although Schoen has won two of his last three clay matches, his career clay record is limited, and his last-15 clay sample is only three matches. Mena's extensive clay background may help him handle the surface better, but his current form is weaker, so this is a counterweight rather than a clear advantage.
- Mena career clay wins: 461; Schoen career clay wins: 13.
- Schoen last 15 on clay: 2-1 in 3 matches; Mena last 15 on clay: 7-6 in 13 matches.
- Mena's career win percentage on clay is higher than his overall career win percentage.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Schoen's superior recent form and return game outweigh Mena's ranking edge on clay.
- Schoen last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Mena 7-8 (46.7%)
- Schoen last 15 total points won 53.1% vs Mena 48.8%
- Schoen last 15 return points won 42.5% vs Mena 34.6%
- Schoen ranking 498 vs Mena 306 but recent form strongly favors Schoen
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline and recent three-set tendencies suggest a longer match.
- Schoen last 15 average 96.7 minutes per match, Mena 104.3
- Schoen last 15 games won 57.8%, Mena 46.6%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average near 10 games, supporting over 9.5.
- Schoen last 15 first set average 9.8 games
- Mena last 15 first set average 9.7 games
- Both players have tiebreak history in recent sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent second sets for both players average around 9.5 games, making over 9.5 plausible.
- Schoen last 15 second set average 9.6 games
- Mena last 15 second set average 9.5 games
- Both players have multiple 7-5 or 7-6 second sets recently
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's strong first-set conversion and better break point efficiency give him the edge in set 1.
- Schoen career first set win conversion 94%
- Schoen last 15 first serve points won 71% vs Mena 72.2%
- Schoen last 15 break points converted 48.7% vs Mena 30.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates exceed 8.5, especially with Mena's strong serving.
- Schoen last 15 aces per match 3.3, Mena 5.3
- Combined average aces per match 8.6
- Mena has 5.2 aces per match on clay in last 13
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are around 5.5, with Mena's high rate pushing over.
- Schoen last 15 double faults per match 1.9, Mena 3.6
- Combined average double faults per match 5.5
- Mena has 3.5 double faults per match on clay in last 13
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

11W 4L

6-4 2-6 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

6-2 6-3#1576Boris Arias

7-5 7-5#266Mili Poljicak

6-1 3-6 6-3#296Carl Emil Overbeck

6-1 6-3#352Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3—Rodrigo Fernandes

3-6 7-6(7) 6-0#355Tiago Pereira

7-6(2) 3-0 ret.#809Rigele Te

6-4 1-6 6-3#337Eliakim Coulibaly

6-4 6-0—Dominique Rolland

6-3 3-6 6-4#493Thijs Boogaard

6-4 6-4—Vasco Leote Prata

6-1 6-3—Pablo Perez Ramos

6-1 ret.—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-7(8) 6-0 1-0 ret.#543Romain Faucon

Facundo Mena

7W 8L

6-2 6-0#230Cezar Cretu

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(3) 6-1#378Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 7-5#573Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-4#320Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 6-3#289Juan Manuel La Serna

7-6(2) 6-2#351Thomas Faurel

6-3 7-6(1)#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-4 6-3#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#884Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 6-4#709Tristan Mccormick

3-6 6-3 7-5#457Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-0#431Valerio Aboian

6-2 2-6 6-1#472Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#463Daniel Dutra Da Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Facundo MenaMenaFM

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Facundo Mena's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.9%+1.0pp58.9%

1st Serve Won71.0%+1.2pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+2.8pp49.9%

Aces / Match3.3+2.05.3

Double Faults / Match1.91.7 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+7.9pp34.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.7%+18.6pp30.1%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+1.0pp65.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+4.3pp48.8%

Serve · 3–2

59.9%1st Serve In+1.0pp58.9%

71.0%1st Serve Won+1.2pp72.2%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp49.9%

3.3Aces / Match+2.05.3

1.9Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+7.9pp34.6%

Pressure · 1–1

48.7%Break Pts Converted+18.6pp30.1%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp65.0%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+4.3pp48.8%