Max Alcala Gurri #229Spain22 – 1Gonzalo Villanueva #352Argentina1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Alcala Gurri's superior recent form and lighter workload give him a moderate edge, supported by his 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches and efficient straight-set wins this week.

• Alcala Gurri has won 11 of his last 15 matches (73.3%) on clay, with a 59.5% games-won rate.
• Villanueva has a heavier recent workload, playing 5 matches in 6 days including qualifying, while Alcala Gurri played only 3 straight-set main-draw matches.
• Alcala Gurri's last 5 matches: 4 wins, all in straight sets, losing only 19 games total across those wins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combined average games per match and both players' competitive return stats suggest a match likely to exceed 20.5 games, even if decided in straight sets.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 matches averaged 20.1 games per match, with 8 of 15 exceeding 20.5 games.
• Villanueva's last 15 matches averaged 21.4 games per match, with 9 of 15 exceeding 20.5 games.
• Both players have high hold/break dynamics: Alcala Gurri breaks at 46.4% and saves at 48.6%; Villanueva breaks at 46.2% and saves at 59.1%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to have competitive first sets, with over 8.5 games occurring in the majority of their recent matches.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 first sets averaged 9.1 games, with 10 of 15 exceeding 8.5 games.
• Villanueva's last 15 first sets averaged 9.3 games, with 11 of 15 exceeding 8.5 games.
• In their last 5 matches each, only 2 of Alcala Gurri's and 1 of Villanueva's first sets ended 6-0 or 6-1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent set scores, with over 8.5 games occurring in about 60% of their recent second sets.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 second sets averaged 8.7 games, with 9 of 15 exceeding 8.5 games.
• Villanueva's last 15 second sets averaged 8.9 games, with 10 of 15 exceeding 8.5 games.
• Both players have shown they can close out matches efficiently, but second sets often remain competitive when the first set is close.