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Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 13:301 Nov, 13:30

8Probabilities7Priced7Edges75%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 22:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom hosts fourth: Wolfsberger have lost five straight league games and been blanked in five of their last six, so Sturm Graz avoiding defeat is the likeliest outcome — yet the 1.18 on the draw or a Sturm win, over 90 minutes and at half-time alike, is too short.

Five quoted prices make the better case: Wolfsberger under 1.5 goals at 1.40, under 3.5 match goals at 1.57, both teams to score – No at 2.30, under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.62 and over 9.5 corners at 1.70.

Context

No confirmed team news and no sourced context beyond league records, so the reading rests on the Bundesliga table, recent form and five head-to-head meetings.

Sturm sit 13 points clear in the table, yet this series has repeatedly finished level: the 2-2 in March 2026 followed 1-1 draws in March and May 2025. Wolfsberger also won 3-1 in Graz on 26 October 2025, so the fixture has swung their way recently. The table gap is real, but the recent head-to-head record is closer than it suggests.
- 1 March 2026: Wolfsberger 2-2 Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga.
- 26 October 2025: Sturm Graz 1-3 Wolfsberger AC in the Bundesliga.
- It was one of three draws in the last five meetings between the clubs.
Five straight league defeats and a goal difference of -12 leave little room for a home-side case. They have one win in five home league games, scoring five and conceding nine. Reaching two goals themselves has been the specific problem: they have 7 in 10 league matches.
- Bundesliga after 10 matches (table fetched 31 October 2026): Wolfsberger 12th of 12, 5 points, 1W 2D 7L, 7 goals for and 19 against.
- Home league record: 5 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 5 scored and 9 conceded.
- League form: LLLLL.
Their overall 5W 3D 2L is built largely on a home record of three wins and two draws, while away they have won two of five. That tempers, without overturning, the sense that the visitors should control this. The away goal numbers are modest too: six scored in five games, seven conceded.
- Bundesliga away record over five matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 6 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Overall league record after 10 matches: 5W 3D 2L, 18 points, 18 goals for and 12 against.
- Home league record over five matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 12 scored and 5 conceded.
That is the clearest recent sign of what Sturm can do once a game opens up: 23 shots, 10 on target and a 3-1 lead inside 45 minutes. It came at home against a defence that gave way repeatedly, so it reads as a ceiling rather than an expectation for this trip. Nothing in the visitors' recent away matches points to a repeat here.
- 18 October 2026: Sturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AK in the Bundesliga, leading 3-1 at half-time.
- Shots: 23 for, 12 against; on target: 10 for, 3 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Sturm sit 14 points clear of a home side that has lost its last five league games and rarely scores, so avoiding defeat looks the clear baseline.
- Sturm Graz are 4th with 18 points from 10 league games (5W 3D 2L); Wolfsberger are last with 5 points (1W 2D 7L)
- Wolfsberger league form LLLLL, 7 goals scored and 19 conceded in 10 games
- Wolfsberger home league record 1W 1D 3L (5 GF, 9 GA); Sturm away 2W 1D 2L (6 GF, 7 GA)
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Sturm GrazMarket price1.18Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Wolfsberger have repeatedly gone into the break trailing while Sturm's first halves are solid, so the visitors leading or level at half-time is the likelier outcome.
- Wolfsberger first-half record: 0.5 scored, 0.92 conceded per game across 12 matches
- Sturm first-half record: 0.71 scored, 0.64 conceded per game across 14 matches
- Wolfsberger were behind at half-time in five of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Sturm GrazMarket price1.18Estimated chance75%

Goals4 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
A side that has been shut out in five of six recent games rarely reaches two goals, and Sturm concede only 1.36 per match.
- Wolfsberger have scored 6 goals in 12 competitive matches (1.0 per game)
- They failed to score in five of their last six competitive matches
- Home league output: 5 goals in 5 games, with 4 of their 7 league goals conceded at the other end
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalWolfsberger AC under 1.5Market price1.40Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams average under two goals a game and Wolfsberger's scoring is minimal, so four or more goals needs an outlier performance.
- Wolfsberger average 1.0 scored and 1.75 conceded; Sturm 1.57 scored and 1.36 conceded
- Last five head-to-head totals: 4, 4, 2, 2, 3 goals - three stayed under 3.5
- Wolfsberger have kept two clean sheets in 12 matches, showing games are not open shootouts
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.57Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
The home side's blank-prone attack is the main obstacle to both teams scoring, and Sturm's defence is decent enough to keep it that way.
- Wolfsberger have scored in only 6 of 12 competitive matches, with both teams scoring in 5 of 12
- Sturm kept four clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Wolfsberger failed to score in five of their last six games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.30Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Neither side starts quickly, and the home team's first-half output is especially thin, pointing to at most one goal before the break.
- Wolfsberger first-half games average 1.42 goals (0.5 for, 0.92 against)
- Sturm first-half games average 1.35 goals (0.71 for, 0.64 against)
- Wolfsberger have scored just one first-half goal in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.62Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 64%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both teams' games routinely clear ten corners because Wolfsberger concede territory and Sturm generate volume from wide areas.
- Wolfsberger matches average 10.6 corners (4.3 for, 6.3 against across 10 matches)
- Sturm matches average 11.5 corners (6.5 for, 5.0 against across 12 matches)
- Sturm took 8 corners against Ried and 9 at Austria Vienna
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.70Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches are busy in shot terms, with Wolfsberger facing heavy volume and Sturm generating plenty of their own.
- Wolfsberger matches average 29.3 shots (11.6 for, 17.7 against over 10 matches)
- Sturm matches average 31.7 shots (15.75 for, 15.9 against over 12 matches)
- Recent examples: Wolfsberger 11-23 at Hartberg, Sturm 27-10 against Ried
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 27.5Estimated chance63%